Core Viewpoint - Domestic silver futures continue to show strong performance, trading above 10,496 yuan/kg, with a peak of 10,597 yuan/kg, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1][5]. Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. GDP data exceeded expectations, with the Q2 annualized growth rate revised from 3.3% to 3.8%, marking the fastest growth since Q3 of last year. Consumer spending was also adjusted from 1.6% to 2.5%, reflecting economic resilience [5]. - The PCE price index was slightly revised up to 2.1%, while core PCE remained at 2.6%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. This data has led to a subtle shift in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with the probability of a rate cut in October now at 83%, down from nearly 100% [5]. - U.S. Treasury yields have risen across the board, with significant increases in 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year yields, while the U.S. dollar index has also shown a rebound. Despite this, speculative positions in dollar index futures remain net short, close to historical extremes [5]. Technical Analysis - The daily silver price has reached new highs, confirming a bullish trend. The market sentiment remains optimistic, supported by a bullish moving average system and MACD indicators above the zero line [6]. - Key support is identified at 10,400 yuan/kg; as long as prices remain above this level, the bullish structure is intact. A drop below this support could signal further correction risks [6]. - The strong U.S. economic data has led to a rebound in the dollar, affecting rate cut expectations, yet silver futures maintain their inherent strength, continuously reaching new highs, indicating ongoing demand for precious metals [6][7].

Group 1 - Central banks are expected to increase their gold and foreign exchange reserves over the next five years, with 72% anticipating a moderate rise, 17% expecting no change, and 6% predicting a significant decline [1] - Demand for gold continues to rise as central banks increase their holdings, leading to a favorable outlook for gold prices [1] - Gold has surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds as the most sought-after asset by central banks, with total gold reserves approaching $4 trillion, exceeding the $3.8 trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings [1] Group 2 - In the context of increasing risks in the U.S. labor market, the Federal Reserve's policy path is characterized by "expectation reinforcement and independence erosion," which is putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar index [3] - Despite rising risk appetite in U.S. equities, institutional demand for precious metals continues to drive prices higher [3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is high, and upcoming economic data will significantly influence future monetary policy expectations and market direction [3]