燃料油日报 | 2025-05-20 沙特燃料油进口逐渐增加 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.37%，报3012元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.03%，报3563 元/吨。 中美第一轮贸易谈判达成、宏观情绪转暖后，原油价格近日呈现震荡偏强走势，对整体能源板块形成提振，但需 要注意原油市场中期供过于求的预期并未逆转，连续反弹后阻力或开始显现。 就燃料油自身基本面来看，关税的下调利好贸易与航运需求，且在90天暂停期内存在额外的补库需求，有望带动 船用燃料油消费改善。其中，低硫燃料油下游需求更集中在船燃端，反应或更为敏感。此外，5月份地中海ECA生 效后，虽然低硫燃料油需求被部分替代，但炼厂也通过产品调整减少低硫燃料油供应，欧洲市场表现实际强于此 前预期，套利船货量的收紧也对亚洲市场形成支撑。但中期来看，低硫燃料油市场仍面临需求份额被替代、剩余 产能较多的矛盾。高硫燃料油方面，随着夏季临近，中东等地发电厂需求将逐步提升。其中，作为最主要的消费 国，沙特燃料油采购已经呈现增长态势。参考船期数据，沙特5月高硫燃料油进口量预计达到96万吨，环比4月增 加25万吨。需要注意的是，欧佩克从5月份 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.12% at 3,057 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 3.08% at 3,647 yuan/ton [1]. - After the first round of Sino-US trade negotiations and the improvement of macro sentiment, crude oil prices have shown a volatile and strong trend recently, boosting the overall energy sector. However, the medium-term oversupply expectation in the crude oil market has not reversed, and resistance may begin to appear after continuous rebounds [1]. - For fuel oil fundamentals, tariff cuts are beneficial to trade and shipping demand, and there is additional restocking demand within the 90-day suspension period, which is expected to drive the improvement of marine fuel oil consumption. Low-sulfur fuel oil demand is more concentrated in the marine fuel end and may be more sensitive. After the Mediterranean ECA came into effect in May, although the demand for low-sulfur fuel oil was partially replaced, refineries also reduced the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil through product adjustment. The European market performed stronger than expected, and the tightening of arbitrage cargo volume also supported the Asian market. For high-sulfur fuel oil, as summer approaches, the demand of power plants in the Middle East and other regions enters a seasonal growth stage. According to Platts data, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah recorded 9.339 million barrels this week, a month-on-month decrease of 10.73%, which may be due to the increased procurement of nearby power plants [1]. - High-sulfur fuel oil: short-term volatile and strong, medium-term pressure still exists; Low-sulfur fuel oil: short-term volatile and strong, medium-term pressure still exists; Cross-variety: no strategy; Cross-period: pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread of FU2507 - 2509 at low prices (positive spread); Spot-futures: no strategy; Options: no strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.12% at 3,057 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 3.08% at 3,647 yuan/ton [1]. - Crude oil prices are volatile and strong recently, but the medium-term oversupply expectation has not reversed [1]. - Tariff cuts are beneficial to fuel oil consumption, and low-sulfur fuel oil may be more sensitive. The European market for low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than expected, and the Asian market is supported. High-sulfur fuel oil demand in the Middle East enters a seasonal growth stage, and Fujairah fuel oil inventory has decreased [1]. Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: short-term volatile and strong, medium-term pressure still exists [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: short-term volatile and strong, medium-term pressure still exists [2]. - Cross-variety: no strategy [2]. - Cross-period: pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread of FU2507 - 2509 at low prices (positive spread) [2]. - Spot-futures: no strategy [2]. - Options: no strategy [2]. Charts - Multiple charts show the prices, spreads, closing prices, and trading volumes of Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil, as well as fuel oil FU and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures [3].