| 《八》国投期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年08月22日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆★ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】隔夜国际油价继续上涨,SC10合约日内涨0.55%。昨日英美再次制裁伊朗石油出口,英法德三国威胁 若伊核协议无进展本月将迅速恢复联合国制裁,此外俄乌和平协议谈判亦再限停滞,周四特朗普表示俄乌问题 两周后会知道结果,市场此前定价地缘缓和走向面临修正。我们曾谈到海外原油期货及期权净多持仓已达区间 低位,短期地缘风险仍有不确定性,建议继续持有虚值期权双买策略避险,待波动率放大后再介入中期空单。 【燃料油&低 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has been oscillating and strengthening, but its upward space is likely limited. In the current environment where high - sulfur fuel oil is stabilizing and low - sulfur fuel oil lacks driving forces, the LU - FU spread does not have the room for significant upward movement [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.41% at 2,730 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.03% at 3,463 yuan/ton. The crude oil price continued its weak oscillating trend, with a bearish cost - side guidance, causing the FU and LU futures to decline. The short - term uncertainty lies in the outcome of the Russia - US summit on the 15th, as the US's attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment [1]. - For the high - sulfur fuel oil market, after continuous adjustments to the market structure, short - term contradictions are relatively limited. The spot premium and monthly spread of the overseas market show signs of stabilizing but lack obvious strengthening drivers. The spot supply is still abundant, and the demand side lacks growth momentum, with high inventories in the Asia - Pacific region. In the long - run trend of crude oil lightening and refinery equipment upgrading, there is still structural support. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently to attract a significant rebound in refinery demand, the market structure may strengthen again, but in the short term, the previously accumulated inventory still needs to be digested [1]. - Regarding low - sulfur fuel oil, the current market pressure is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. On one hand, domestic production remains low, and the supply in the bonded area is relatively tight. On the other hand, after the tension in overseas diesel eases, the supply of blending components is expected to increase marginally. In the medium - term perspective, due to the relatively abundant remaining production capacity of low - sulfur fuel oil, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: The trend is expected to be oscillating and weakening [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The trend is expected to be oscillating and weakening [3]. - Cross - variety: No strategy is provided [3]. - Cross - period: No strategy is provided [3]. - Spot - futures: No strategy is provided [3]. - Options: No strategy is provided [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Domestically, the economy shows downward pressure as the manufacturing PMI declines. It enters a policy observation period, and incremental policies may be introduced if economic data continues to weaken. Overseas, it's an inflation observation period. Despite a hawkish speech from Powell, the Fed's core targets are employment and inflation. With poor non - farm data and high inflation in the US service sector, there may be fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, without new shock factors, it is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range, with a likely central anchor at 7.20 [4]. - The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend. The adjustment of US tariff policies may reduce risk appetite [6]. - For the bond market, there is a mild price repair. Although the stock market is strong, the bond market is at most suppressed, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. - For the shipping industry, the container shipping index is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [9]. - In the precious metals market, due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, gold and silver are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper may be volatile and weak; aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile; zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom; nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile in the short - term; tin may rise slightly; and the recommended strategies vary for each metal [13][15][16][17][18][19]. - In the black metals market, steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space; iron ore is expected to be strong; coking coal and coke may have increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic; silicon iron and silicon manganese are not overly pessimistic despite the decline in sentiment [21][23][26][27]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is under supply pressure and has limited upward space; LPG is in a loose supply situation; PX - TA can be considered for expanding processing fees at low prices; MEG - bottle chips are expected to be range - bound; methanol's fundamentals are weak in the short - term; PP is driven up by coal prices; PE needs to wait for demand recovery; PVC's pricing returns to the industry, and short - selling is recommended; pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile; fuel oil is weak; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling; asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile; urea is expected to be weakly volatile; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline; and propylene's price in the Shandong market has a slight increase [31][33][35][37][39][42][45][47][48][50][51][53][54][56][58][59][60][61][66]. - In the agricultural products market, for live pigs, short - selling at high prices is recommended; for oilseeds, long - buying in the far - month contracts is recommended [67][69]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market information includes policies on financial support for new - type industrialization in China, the US service - sector PMI causing concerns about stagflation, Trump's statements on tariffs and the Fed, and the high proportion of seriously overdue consumer loans in the US [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange - rate performance shows a decline in the on - shore RMB against the US dollar. Trump's tariff policies and the decline in the US non - manufacturing index are important factors. Without new shock factors, the short - term exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index continued to rise yesterday, and the small - cap stocks were strong. The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend due to policy support and the adjustment of US tariff policies [5][6]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury futures fluctuated upward, and the price is in a mild repair state. The bond market is at most suppressed by the strong stock market, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. Shipping - The container shipping index futures opened low and fluctuated. The spot prices of major shipping companies have been continuously reduced, and the futures price is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [8][9]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The price of precious metals rose due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. They are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded slightly, mainly to correct the previous decline. It may be volatile and weak in the short - term, and investors are advised to hold cash and wait [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered when the price difference is large [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom. The supply is gradually changing from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the traditional off - season [16][17]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to be volatile in the short - term. The fundamentals of nickel have no obvious changes, and the supply of nickel - iron is supported by the expected increase in steel - mill production in August. The stability of the stainless - steel price needs to be tested [18]. - **Tin**: Tin rose slightly, showing strong resilience. The supply problem has not been resolved, and the demand weakness has not fully affected the price. Inventory hedging can be considered at an appropriate time [19]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space. Although the export orders have weakened, the market pressure is temporarily relieved, and the coal - mine inspection and military - parade limit - production expectations provide support [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to be strong. The short - term fundamentals are good, and the supply is neutral while the demand is expected to remain high. The price is expected to break through the 800 - yuan pressure level [22][23]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose strongly. The "anti - involution" policy may lead to increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic. It is not recommended for non - spot - handling investors to participate in the 09 - contract delivery game [25][26]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: Although the sentiment has declined, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported by high steel - mill profits in the short - term, but the long - term demand is uncertain [27][28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell overnight, and the market is under supply pressure. The seasonal demand is weakening, and the upward space is limited [30][31]. - **LPG**: LPG is in a loose supply situation. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand has little change. The price is expected to be under pressure [32][33]. - **PX - PTA**: The PX - TA price has fallen. The current TA processing fee is at a historical low, and there are many expected TA maintenance plans. It is recommended to expand the processing fee at low prices [34][35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The "anti - involution" premium has been squeezed out, and the fundamentals have insufficient driving force. They are expected to be range - bound [36][37]. - **Methanol**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the methanol market has returned to fundamentals, which are weak in the short - term. Attention should be paid to downstream resistance and port - to - inland price differences [38][39]. - **PP**: PP's price rose driven by coal prices. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak, so the market is in a weak pattern [40][42]. - **PE**: PE's price was driven up by the coal - market. The current demand is weak, and the inventory is high, but the demand is expected to recover in August [43][45]. - **PVC**: PVC's pricing has returned to the industry. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. Short - selling is recommended [46][47]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile. The supply and demand of pure benzene are both increasing, and the supply of styrene is expected to increase in August and September [48][50]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling due to weak supply, demand, and high inventory [51][53]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile, following the cost - end. The supply has increased, but the demand is affected by weather and funds. The medium - to - long - term demand is expected to improve [53][54]. - **Urea**: Urea is under pressure. Although the export demand provides some support, the agricultural demand is weakening [55][56]. - **Glass, Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: They show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Soda ash has a strong supply and weak demand; glass is in a weak - balance state; and caustic soda may start the delivery logic in August [57][58][59][60]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline. The supply and inventory are high, and the demand has no obvious long - term increase, but there is seasonal support in August [61][62]. - **Propylene**: The price of propylene in the Shandong market has a slight increase. The supply is loose, and the demand has little change. The cost is affected by multiple factors [64][66]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs is stable, and the supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The outer - market US soybeans are weak, and the inner - market soybeans are pricing the far - month supply gap. It is recommended to long - buy in the far - month contracts [68][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Copper prices are influenced by U.S. non - farm data increasing the expectation of a September interest rate cut, a weaker dollar, and a low inventory in China. The market is overall weak, and attention should be paid to the support level of 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Lithium Carbonate - The market sentiment is cooling, and the market is currently oscillating strongly. If the news of supply - side production cuts is false, the market may turn weak [8] Crude Oil - Due to the seasonal peak travel season and low U.S. crude oil inventories, but with an unexpected large increase in U.S. crude oil stocks and OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, crude oil prices are expected to oscillate [10] Asphalt - With开工率 changes, inventory status, and cost factors, asphalt is expected to oscillate in the near term [11][12] PP - Given factors such as downstream开工率, supply, cost, and policy expectations, PP is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13] Plastic - Considering开工率, demand, cost, and policy factors, plastic is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15] PVC - With supply, demand, inventory, and policy conditions, PVC is expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] Coking Coal - Although the market sentiment is cooling, due to the expectation of supply tightening, the downward space for coking coal price correction is limited [18] Urea - The market is oscillating, and future trends depend on the purchasing progress of compound fertilizer plants and export conditions. The 09 contract has limited upward and downward space [19] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of August 4, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Logs and coking coal rose by over 2%, while eggs fell by over 4%. In terms of capital flow, CSI 1000 2509 had an inflow of 1.063 billion yuan, while CSI 300 2509 had an outflow of 1.092 billion yuan [4] Copper - The U.S. non - farm data increased the probability of a September interest rate cut. China's copper production increased in July, and the TC/RC fee stopped falling. The market is in a slack season with weak demand, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is low [7] Lithium Carbonate - The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The supply - side开工率 increased, and there is an expected reduction in supply. The cost support is weakening, and downstream demand is expected to increase [8] Crude Oil - It's the seasonal peak travel season, and U.S. crude oil inventories are low. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the IEA has adjusted the global crude oil surplus for 2025 [10] Asphalt - The开工率 of asphalt production has rebounded, and the expected production in August has decreased. The downstream开工率 varies, and the inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level. The cost support is weakening [11][12] PP - The downstream开工率 of PP has slightly increased, and the enterprise开工率 has risen. The upstream propane import is restricted, and there is new production capacity. The downstream recovery is slow, and the inventory pressure is high [13] Plastic - The plastic开工率 is at a neutral level, and the downstream开工率 has increased slightly. There is new production capacity, and the downstream is in a slack season with weak demand and high inventory [14][15] PVC - The PVC开工率 has increased slightly, and the downstream开工率 is low. Exports are affected by policies, and the social inventory is high. The real - estate market is still in adjustment [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price showed a mixed trend. The supply from Mongolia is high, and the domestic coal production has not significantly decreased. The inventory is being transferred downward, and the downstream demand may be affected by the decline in iron - water production [18] Urea - The urea price weekend decline attracted orders. The production is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand from compound fertilizer plants is increasing. The inventory has started to accumulate [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★ (Indicates a bias towards a long position, with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability on the trading floor) [5] - Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [5] - Asphalt: ★★★ (Indicates a clearer long - position trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [5] - LPG: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall energy market is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and geopolitical situations. Different energy products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude oil - Last week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell. Brent 10 contract still closed up 2.84%, and SC09 contract rose 2.92%. US July non - farm payrolls data was lower than expected, and data for May and June were significantly revised down. OPEC + 8 voluntary production - cut countries decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. This week, after the oil price correction, it is temporarily regarded as oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs before the August 12 deadline [2] Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil - Crude oil led the decline in oil - related futures. The fuel oil series trended lower, and the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread continued to decline. The arrival volume in the Singapore market increased significantly in July, and the bunker fuel demand in Fujeirah has been weakening month - on - month since June. The crack spreads of FU and LU are expected to continue the weak trend [2] Asphalt - In July, the inflow of Venezuelan crude oil into China increased by 3.8% month - on - month. The August production plan decreased compared with July, but some Sinopec refineries' actual production exceeded the plan for two consecutive months. Demand recovery in South China was delayed, and northern demand was also weak. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly month - on - month but remained at a relatively low level in recent years. The BU trend mainly follows the direction of crude oil, but the fluctuation range is limited [3] LPG - The Middle East CP was significantly lowered, but the spot discount shrank. The chemical profit margin stabilized due to the decline in the finished product end. The PDH operating rate is still rising, and domestic demand has bottom - level support. The supply side is relatively loose, and refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. The downside space of the spot is relatively limited after the rapid decline [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Metals and Minerals - Gold, Silver, Zinc, Tin, Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Iron Ore, Logs: Negative or Weak Outlook [-1] [2] [24] - Copper, Lead, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Steam Coal: Neutral Outlook [0] [12] [18] Energy - Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Negative Outlook [-1] [4] Chemicals - PTA, MEG, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, PVC: Negative or Weak Outlook [-1] [2] [4] Agricultural and Livestock - Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Sugar, Cotton, Egg, Live Pig, Peanut: Varying Degrees of Outlook [-1, 0] [4] Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Negative Outlook [-1] [4] 2. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including their price trends, fundamental data, and macro - industry news. The trends of different commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic data, and geopolitical events. For example, the weak non - farm payroll data in the US has led to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, which has an impact on precious metals and other commodities [7] [12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm data is weak, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have shown certain fluctuations, with some contracts having positive night - trading gains [2] [6]. - **Silver**: It has fallen from a high level, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot have also fluctuated, with some contracts having negative daily gains [2] [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The spot premium is firm, which limits price declines. The trend strength is 0. Macro - economic data and industry events such as project evaluations in Peru and tariff policies in the US have an impact on the copper market [12] [14]. - **Zinc**: It is in a downward oscillation, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of zinc futures and spot have declined, and inventory data has also changed [15]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction limits price drops, and the trend strength is 0. The prices of lead futures and spot have shown little change, and inventory has decreased [18]. - **Tin**: It is in a range - bound oscillation, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of tin futures and spot have fluctuated, and inventory data has changed [20] [21]. - **Aluminum**: The center of gravity has shifted downward. Alumina is in continuous inventory accumulation, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is - 1 [25] [27]. - **Nickel**: The multi - empty game has intensified, and nickel prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The prices of nickel futures and related products in the industrial chain have fluctuated [28] [29]. - **Stainless Steel**: It has returned to fundamentals, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The prices of stainless - steel futures and spot have shown little change [29]. Energy - Related Commodities - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The sentiment has been realized, and they are in a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures and spot have changed, and inventory and position data are also provided [54] [55]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption has recovered, and it is oscillating and stabilizing. The trend strength is 0. The prices of steam - coal futures and spot in different regions are reported, and position data is also given [59] [61]. Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances still exist, and wide - range oscillations may continue. The trend strength is 0. The prices of carbonate - lithium futures and spot have fluctuated, and market data such as trading volume and open interest are provided [34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in a weak pattern. The trend strength is - 1. The prices of industrial - silicon futures and spot have declined, and inventory data has changed [37] [38]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term sentiment continues to cool down. The trend strength is - 1. The prices of polysilicon futures and related products in the photovoltaic industry have fluctuated [38]. - **PTA**: The trend is weak, and attention should be paid to positive spreads in monthly differentials. The trend strength is not explicitly stated but is implied as weak [67]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend remains weak. The trend strength is not explicitly stated but is implied as weak [67]. Agricultural and Livestock Commodities - **Palm Oil**: With the ebb of macro and crude - oil factors, wait for low - level long - position building. The trend strength is not explicitly stated [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is mainly in an oscillatory adjustment, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade agreement. The trend strength is not explicitly stated [4]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Hold short positions as appropriate, and it may continue to be weak. The trend strength is - 1 [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The spot price of Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures main contract closed up 0.1% at 2,924 yuan/ton, and INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures main contract closed up 0.19% at 3,602 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices maintain an oscillating trend. The unilateral prices of FU and LU are supported by the cost side, but the expectation of a looser medium - term balance sheet limits the upside space of prices [1] - The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil currently lack highlights. The market structure has been continuously adjusted recently, especially the crack spread has significantly declined from its high level. The spot supply is relatively abundant, and the inventory level is high. However, the peak demand season of downstream power generation terminals provides some support to the market. Egypt's purchasing power is relatively strong, with an expected import volume of 990,000 tons in July, a month - on - month increase of 990,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 490,000 tons. But with the increase in Egypt's LNG imports, the subsequent demand growth space for fuel oil in power plants may be limited. The structural positive factors of high - sulfur fuel oil have not completely subsided. If the crack spread is fully adjusted to attract a significant recovery in refinery demand, opportunities for the market structure to strengthen again can be observed [1] - The fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil have recently loosened marginally. The arrival of Brazilian tanker cargoes has increased, and Kuwait's exports have also begun to resume. The spot supply in the Asia - Pacific region is relatively abundant. In the medium term, the remaining production capacity of low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, and the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [1] Group 3: Strategies - For high - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - For low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - Cross - variety: Positions of shorting FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) in the early stage can be appropriately stopped for profit [2] - Cross - period: FU reverse spread positions in the early stage can be gradually stopped for profit [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a detailed table of the basis rate statistics for various futures on July 22, 2025, including the basis rate, change from the previous day, monthly basis, and contract prices for different commodities across multiple sectors such as non - ferrous metals, precious metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. 3. Summary by Related Categories Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU): Basis rate is 0.41%, down 0.04% from the previous day, with a current month basis of 325 and a spot price of 79,555 [4]. - Aluminum (AL): Basis rate is 0.70%, down 0.25% from the previous day, current month basis is 110, and spot price is 20,890 [4]. - Zinc (ZN): Basis rate is 0.15%, up 0.06% from the previous day, current month basis is 70, and spot price is 22,820 [4]. - Tin (SN): Basis rate is 0.61%, up 0.01% from the previous day, current month basis is 1630, and spot price is 267,200 [4]. - Nickel (NI): Basis rate is 0.95%, down 0.09% from the previous day, current month basis is 1160, and spot price is 122,850 [4]. - Industrial Silicon: Basis rate is 4.28%, down 1.73% from the previous day, current month basis is 415, and spot price is 9500 [4]. - Lithium Carbonate (LC): Basis rate is - 4.14%, down 0.04% from the previous day, current month basis is - 2880, and spot price is 68,020 [4]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU): Basis rate is - 0.60%, down 0.13% from the previous day, current month basis is - 2.32, and spot price is 777.00 [4]. - Silver (AG): Basis rate is - 0.49%, up 0.18% from the previous day, current month basis is - 16, and spot price is 9226 [4]. Energy Chemicals - Crude Oil (SC): Basis rate is - 5.41%, up 3.12% from the previous day, current month basis is - 27.7, and spot price is 484.6 [4]. - Fuel Oil (EU): Basis rate is 4.30%, down 0.72% from the previous day, current month basis is 126, and spot price is 3050 [4]. - Asphalt (BU): Basis rate is 5.41%, up 0.90% from the previous day, current month basis is 198, and spot price is 3855 [4]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): Basis rate is 2.30%, up 1.65% from the previous day, current month basis is 82, and spot price is 3685 [4]. - LPG (PG): Basis rate is 10.14%, down 0.84% from the previous day, current month basis is 464, and spot price is 4498 [4]. Agricultural Products - Soybean: Basis rate is - 5.69%, down 0.23% from the previous day, current month basis is - 239, and spot price is 3960 [4]. - Bean Meal (M): Basis rate is - 5.83%, down 0.40% from the previous day, current month basis is - 179, and spot price is 2890 [4]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): Basis rate is - 3.19%, up 0.19% from the previous day, current month basis is - 87, and spot price is 2640 [4]. - Corn: Basis rate is 0.00%, down 0.26% from the previous day, current month basis is 0, and spot price is 2320 [4]. - Corn Starch (CS): Basis rate is 0.60%, down 0.23% from the previous day, current month basis is 16, and spot price is 2680 [4]. - Apple (AP): Basis rate is - 1.55%, down 0.50% from the previous day, current month basis is - 123, and spot price is 7800 [4]. - Eggs (JD): Basis rate is - 12.54%, down 1.00% from the previous day, current month basis is - 456, and spot price is 3180 [4]. - Live Pigs (LH): Basis rate is 0.24%, down 1.63% from the previous day, current month basis is not clear, and spot price is 14,400 [4]. - Cotton (CF): Basis rate is 9.90%, up 1.22% from the previous day, current month basis is 1404, and spot price is 15,589 [4]. - Sugar (SR): Basis rate is 4.81%, down 0.23% from the previous day, current month basis is 281, and spot price is 6120 [4]. Others - Rebar (RB): Basis rate is 3.29%, down 0.62% from the previous day, current month basis is 106, and spot price is 3330 [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coil (HC): Basis rate is 1.06%, down 0.45% from the previous day, current month basis is 36, and spot price is 3430 [4]. - Iron Ore: Basis rate is 4.64%, unchanged from the previous day, current month basis is 36.5, and spot price is 821.5 [4]. - Coke: Basis rate is - 7.93%, down 0.20% from the previous day, current month basis is - 127.1, and spot price is 1476 [4]. - Coking Coal (JIM): Basis rate is 9.34%, down 9.45% from the previous day, current month basis is 94.0, and spot price is 1100.0 [4]. - Silicon Iron (SF): Basis rate is - 6.32%, down 1.63% from the previous day, current month basis is - 358, and spot price is 5310 [4]. - Manganese Ore (SM): Basis rate is - 1.08%, down 1.87% from the previous day, current month basis is - 64, and spot price is 5850 [4]. - Stainless Steel: Basis rate is - 0.43%, down 0.62% from the previous day, current month basis is - 25, and spot price is 12,850 [4]. - Glass (FG): Basis rate is 0.60%, down 6.71% from the previous day, current month basis is 7, and spot price is 1180 [4]. - Methanol (MA): Basis rate is 0.89%, down 0.80% from the previous day, current month basis is 22, and spot price is 2433 [4]. - Ethanol (EG): Basis rate is 1.47%, up 0.13% from the previous day, current month basis is 65, and spot price is 4475 [4]. - PTA (TA): Basis rate is 0.21%, down 0.34% from the previous day, current month basis is 10, and spot price is 4790 [4]. - Polypropylene (PP): Basis rate is 3.23%, down 1.15% from the previous day, current month basis is 229, and spot price is 7320 [4]. - Styrene (EB): Basis rate is 0.91%, down 0.36% from the previous day, current month basis is 137, and spot price is 7560 [4]. - Short - Fiber (PF): Basis rate is 3.39%, down 0.97% from the previous day, current month basis is 218, and spot price is 6650 [4]. - Plastic: Basis rate is - 0.55%, down 1.02% from the previous day, current month basis is - 40, and spot price is 7250 [4]. - PVC (V): Basis rate is 5.61%, down 3.87% from the previous day, current month basis is 287, and spot price is 5405 [4]. - Rubber (RU): Basis rate is - 0.30%, down 0.23% from the previous day, current month basis is - 45, and spot price is 14,850 [4]. - 20 - Numbered Rubber (NR): Basis rate is 1.31%, down 0.36% from the previous day, current month basis is 167, and spot price is 12,917 [4]. - Soda Ash (SA): Basis rate is - 0.77%, up 0.05% from the previous day, current month basis is - 10, and spot price is 1285 [4]. - Urea (UR): Basis rate is 1.55%, down 2.18% from the previous day, current month basis is 28, and spot price is 1840 [4]. - Pulp (SP): Basis rate is 11.78%, down 0.89% from the previous day, current month basis is 629, and spot price is 5963 [4]. Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF): Basis rate is 0.51%, up 0.10% from the previous day, current month basis is 11.0, and spot price is 4085.6 [4]. - SSE 50 (IH): Basis rate is 0.04%, up 0.13% from the previous day, current month basis is 1.2, and spot price is 2772.2 [4]. - CSI 500 (IC): Basis rate is 1.75%, up 0.10% from the previous day, current month basis is 54.7, and spot price is 6161.3 [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] 2) Core Viewpoints - The crude oil price has been oscillating strongly since the OPEC meeting, and the unilateral prices of FU and LU are supported by the cost side. However, there is an expectation of a looser balance sheet in the medium - term crude oil market, which may limit the upside space of prices. The recent oil price decline has also led to a weaker market drive [1]. - The current market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads continuously declining. Although there are still structural support factors, the crack spreads need to further adjust to attract the return of refinery demand [1]. - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has been stable recently, supported by the strong performance of overseas diesel. The overall supply pressure is limited due to the significant year - on - year decline in domestic production in the first half of the year. However, the surplus production capacity is abundant, and the long - term carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will suppress the market [1]. - The current market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil is slightly stronger than that of high - sulfur fuel oil, and the high - low sulfur spread has been widening recently, but the structural contradiction has not completely reversed, and there is no room for a significant increase in the spread [2]. 3) Strategy Summary - High - sulfur: Maintain an oscillating trend [3] - Low - sulfur: Maintain an oscillating trend [3] - Cross - variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies [3] - Cross - period: Gradually take profit on the previous FU reverse spread positions [3] - Spot - futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3]

Report Information - Report Date: July 14, 2025 [2] - Report Department: Research and Consulting Department [2] - Producer: Hao Xutong [17] - Investment Consulting Qualification: Z0013677 [17] Core Data Daily Price Change and Fund Flow - Multiple futures products are listed, including lithium carbonate, low-sulfur fuel oil, crude oil, etc., with their daily price changes, fund flow percentages, trading volume changes, and fund inflow rankings presented [5][8][10][12] Position Value Proportion - The position value proportions of various futures products are provided, such as lithium carbonate (1%), low-sulfur fuel oil (0%), crude oil (1%), etc. [15] Specific Content Summary Daily Price Change - Multiple futures products' price changes are presented on a chart, with the price change range from -15% to 15% [5] Daily Fund Flow - The fund flow percentages of various futures products are shown, with the range from -15% to 15%. The top five products with fund inflow are lithium carbonate, low-sulfur fuel oil, crude oil, Shanghai silver, and industrial silicon; the top five products with fund outflow are Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Futures, ferrosilicon, Shanghai aluminum, CSI 1000 Index Futures, and apples [8][12] Daily Trading Volume Change - The trading volume change percentages of various futures products are presented, with the range from -100% to 250% [10] Position Value Proportion - The position value proportions of various futures products are listed, with the highest being Shanghai gold at 12%, followed by CSI 1000 Index Futures at 13%, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index Futures at 10% [15]