燃料油日报 | 2025-09-30 市场短期矛盾有限，节前保持谨慎 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.17%，报2919元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.29%，报3480 元/吨。 原油价格近期有所反弹，但中期平衡表转松的预期对市场形成压制，考虑到地缘局势仍不明朗，国庆假期期间油 价可能出现大幅波动，建议保持谨慎。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫燃料油市场结构边际走强，期货注册仓单量减少也对FU盘面结构形成额外支撑。 但基于目前的估值水平与供需状况来看，高硫燃料油市场上行驱动仍有限，需要新的变量催化。 低硫燃料油方面，近期Dangote与Pengerang炼厂RFCC装置停工导致局部低硫燃料油供应增加，裂解价差与月差结 构受到一定压制。但与此同时，国产量维持中低位，汽柴油溢价偏强分流低硫油组分，整体来看供应压力相对有 限。中期来看，低硫船燃需求份额被替代的趋势尚未逆转，市场上方阻力依然较大。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中期向下 低硫方面：短期中性，中期向下 跨品种：无 跨期：逢低多FU2511-2512价差 期现：无 期权：无 风险 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本 ...

2025 年 9 月 26 日 低硫燃料油：大幅上行，外盘现货高低硫价差 强势反弹 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | | 日 涨 跌 | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2510 | 元/吨 | 2.969 | | 1. 64% | 2, 933 | 1.88% | | | | FU2511 | 元/吨 | 2.970 | | 1. 88% | 2.948 | 2.08% | | | | LU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,366 | | -0. 06% | 3.366 | 0.00% | | | | LU2511 | 元/吨 | 3.450 | | 0.00% | 3, 435 | 1.12% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | FU2510 | र | 216 | | (727) | 4 ...

埃及燃料油进口需求延续 燃料油日报 | 2025-09-17 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.29%，报2795元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.25%，报3395 元/吨。 原油价格维持区间震荡态势，炼厂秋季检修高峰来临导致需求季节性下滑，在欧佩克持续增产的趋势下，原油平 衡表预计逐步转松。然而，当前地缘局势不确定性仍存，且现实库存偏低，因此油价短期方向尚不明朗，对燃料 油价格方向指引有限。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫燃料油处于市场再平衡的阶段，近端供应相对充裕，新加坡库存处于高位区间， 但压力相比前期已有所缓和。具体来看，中东燃料油发货量9月明显回落，此外埃及采购需求还在延续。参考船期 数据，埃及9月份高硫燃料油进口量预计在69万吨，环比8月增加26万吨，同比去年基本持平。对于发电终端整体 而言，消费旺季处于尾声阶段，短期对市场存在支撑，但进入10月份预计将逐步回落。 低硫燃料油方面，近期尼日利亚Dangote炼厂由于RFCC装置停工而增加低硫燃料油出口，市场供应压力增加，但 同时西区套利船货量下滑，国产量维持低位，整体并无严重过剩预期，外盘呈现轻度Back结构。在中期视角下 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.09% at 2,786 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.48% at 3,383 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices are oscillating in a range. In the short term, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine is unclear, and in the medium term, there is an expectation of oversupply, providing limited guidance on fuel oil price direction [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil is in the stage of market rebalancing, with recent spreads stabilizing and slightly rebounding. There are both long and short factors, with relatively ample near-term supply and high inventory in Singapore. As summer ends, fuel oil demand in the Middle East is expected to decline. Egypt's high-sulfur fuel oil imports in September are currently estimated at 280,000 tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the previous month [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the current market contradictions are limited. Domestic production has increased but remains at a low level. The external market structure has made small adjustments, and downstream marine fuel demand is average. In the medium term, low-sulfur fuel oil still faces the contradictions of demand share substitution and surplus capacity, so while there is some support below the valuation, the upward resistance is also large [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Fuel oil futures prices: The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.09% at 2,786 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.48% at 3,383 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil price situation: Crude oil prices are oscillating in a range. In the short term, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine is unclear, and in the medium term, there is an expectation of oversupply, providing limited guidance on fuel oil price direction [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals: In the stage of market rebalancing, recent spreads have stabilized and slightly rebounded. There are both long and short factors, with relatively ample near-term supply and high inventory in Singapore. As summer ends, fuel oil demand in the Middle East is expected to decline. Egypt's high-sulfur fuel oil imports in September are currently estimated at 280,000 tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the previous month [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals: Current market contradictions are limited. Domestic production has increased but remains at a low level. The external market structure has made small adjustments, and downstream marine fuel demand is average. In the medium term, it still faces the contradictions of demand share substitution and surplus capacity, so while there is some support below the valuation, the upward resistance is also large [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Figures - Multiple figures show the prices, spreads, contract prices, and trading volumes of Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils, as well as Shanghai fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures, with units including US dollars/ton and yuan/ton, and hands [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Volatility [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Volatility [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical and macro situation remains unclear, with limited progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The crude oil market faces many uncertainties in the short term and is in a range-bound oscillation, and the FU and LU futures also show narrow fluctuations [1]. - High-sulfur fuel oil is in a stage of market adjustment and rebalancing, with a mix of long and short factors. The increasing exports of Middle Eastern high-sulfur fuel oil due to OPEC's production increase pose potential pressure on the market [1]. - The current market pressure on low-sulfur fuel oil is limited. Although the market structure is relatively stable in the short term, there is no strong driving force. In the medium term, it still faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and surplus production capacity, with upward resistance despite some support at the lower end of the valuation [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.04% at 2,840 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.85% at 3,512 yuan/ton [1]. - The shipments of Middle Eastern high-sulfur fuel oil reached 3.41 million tons and 3.38 million tons in July and August respectively, much higher than the 2.08 million tons in January. There may be more room for export growth after the peak power demand season [1]. - The domestic production of low-sulfur fuel oil remains low, and the arbitrage supply from the West has tightened again. The export of Brazilian low-sulfur fuel oil has declined, and the external market maintains a Back structure [1]. Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to be volatile [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to be volatile [2] - No specific strategies for cross-variety, cross-period, spot-futures, and options [2]

燃料油日报 | 2025-09-02 市场多空因素交织，短期方向仍不明朗 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.25%，报2832元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.49%，报3474 元/吨。 当前地缘与宏观形势仍不明朗，尤其俄乌和谈进展有限，原油端短期面临诸多不确定性，目前处于区间震荡走势， 并无明朗方向，FU、LU盘面也呈现窄幅波动状态。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫燃料油处于市场调整与再平衡的阶段，目前市场多空因素交织。具体来看，一方 面，中东高硫燃料油出口持续增加，发电需求旺季结束后可能还有进一步提升的空间；另一方面，由于美国制裁 加码及乌克兰无人机的袭击，伊朗与俄罗斯供应受限。高硫燃料油短期市场矛盾有限，未来如果发电旺季结束后 市场继续转松，可能需要裂解价差进一步回调来吸引炼厂端的增量需求。 低硫燃料油方面，当前市场压力有限，国产量维持低位，近期西区套利供应再度收紧，其中巴西低硫燃料油出口 出现下滑。短期来看，市场结构仍相对稳固，但也无太强驱动。在中期视角下，低硫燃料油依然面临需求份额被 替代、剩余产能较多的矛盾，因此虽估值下方存在一定支撑，向上阻力也较大。 宏观风险、关税风险 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical and macro - economic situation is unclear, especially with limited progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks. The crude oil market faces many uncertainties in the short - term, showing a range - bound oscillation, and the FU and LU fuel oil markets also show narrow - range fluctuations [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is in a stage of structural adjustment and market re - balancing, with relatively abundant overall supply. Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil exports continue to increase and may rise further after the end of the peak power - generation demand season. If the market continues to loosen, it may require a further decline in crack spreads to attract incremental demand from refineries [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil currently has limited market pressure. Domestic production remains low, Western - region arbitrage supply has tightened again, and the outer - market monthly spread structure has strengthened slightly. In the short - term, the market structure is relatively stable but lacks strong driving forces. In the medium - term, it still faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and surplus production capacity, so while there is some support below the valuation, there is also significant upward resistance [1]. 3) Strategy Summary - High - sulfur fuel oil: Expected to oscillate [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Expected to oscillate [2]. - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [2]. - Cross - period: No strategy provided [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy provided [2]. - Options: No strategy provided [2]. 4) Charts Summary - There are 18 charts in the report, including those showing Singapore high - sulfur 380 fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil spot prices, swap near - month contracts, near - month spreads, as well as fuel oil FU and low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures contract closing prices, indices, near - month contract prices, near - month spreads, and trading volume and open interest [3]. - The data sources for these charts are Flush, Steel Union, and Huatai Futures Research Institute [6][7][9]

燃料油日报 | 2025-08-28 中东高硫燃料油发货量持续增加 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌2.39%，报2821元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.47%，报3485 元/吨。 当前地缘与宏观形势仍不明朗，尤其俄乌和谈进展有限，原油端短期面临诸多不确定性，昨日油价再度回落，带 动FU、LU盘面下跌。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫燃料油处于结构调整与市场再平衡的阶段，目前还不具备再度走强的条件。参考 船期数据来看，中东高硫燃料油发货量还在持续增加，8月份达到345万吨，环比增加8万吨。未来随着发电终端消 费旺季结束，沙特等国国内消费减少，出口还有进一步提升的空间。 低硫燃料油方面，当前市场压力有限，国产量维持低位，海外供应有再度收紧的态势，外盘月差结构小幅走强。 短期来看，市场结构仍相对稳固。但在中期视角下，低硫燃料油依然面临需求份额被替代、剩余产能较多的矛盾， 因此虽估值下方空间有限，向上阻力也较大。 策略 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core Views - The night session of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures closed up 0.07% at 2,703 yuan per ton, and the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.03% at 3,443 yuan per ton [1] - Crude oil prices have shown a volatile downward trend recently, and the cost-side guidance for FU and LU is bearish. The medium-term balance sheet of the oil market is expected to have an oversupply situation, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. The change in the US attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and bring additional price fluctuations [1] - The current fundamentals and market structure of fuel oil are still weak. The supply at the spot end is relatively abundant, the inventory level is high, and there are few bright spots on the demand side except for the peak-season effect of power plants. The market lacks upward driving force [1] - The shipping volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has been increasing month by month, reaching a high of 3.51 million tons in July. According to current shipping schedule data, the shipping volume in August has declined, currently estimated at 2.65 million tons (with upward revision potential in the second half of the month). In the future, as summer ends, local demand in the Middle East will decline, and coupled with the OPEC production increase trend, the high-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to further loosen. However, if the crack spread is adjusted sufficiently to attract a significant improvement in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to stabilize and strengthen again [1] - The current market pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Domestic production has been at a low level, but overseas supply has rebounded, and the external market has shown a marginal weakening trend recently. From a medium-term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures closed up 0.07% at 2,703 yuan per ton, and the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.03% at 3,443 yuan per ton [1] - Crude oil prices have shown a volatile downward trend recently, and the cost-side guidance for FU and LU is bearish. The medium-term balance sheet of the oil market is expected to have an oversupply situation, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. The change in the US attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and bring additional price fluctuations [1] - The current fundamentals and market structure of fuel oil are still weak. The supply at the spot end is relatively abundant, the inventory level is high, and there are few bright spots on the demand side except for the peak-season effect of power plants. The market lacks upward driving force [1] - The shipping volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has been increasing month by month, reaching a high of 3.51 million tons in July. According to current shipping schedule data, the shipping volume in August has declined, currently estimated at 2.65 million tons (with upward revision potential in the second half of the month). In the future, as summer ends, local demand in the Middle East will decline, and coupled with the OPEC production increase trend, the high-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to further loosen. However, if the crack spread is adjusted sufficiently to attract a significant improvement in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to stabilize and strengthen again [1] - The current market pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Domestic production has been at a low level, but overseas supply has rebounded, and the external market has shown a marginal weakening trend recently. From a medium-term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

燃料油日报 | 2025-08-08 富查伊拉燃料油库存增加 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.25%，报2826元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.25%，报3526 元/吨。 原油价格回调后近日呈现弱势震荡走势，对于FU、LU价格短期方向指引有限，中期平衡表转松的预期则对能源板 块有潜在压制。 就高硫燃料油市场而言，市场结构连续调整后，短期矛盾相对有限。目前来看，现货端供应相对充裕，需求端则 缺乏增长动力，发电端需求虽然受到旺季提振，但缺乏超出季节性的驱动。参考普式数据，富查伊拉燃料油库存 本周录得965.6万桶，环比前一周增加21.67%。往前看，在原油轻质化、炼厂装置升级的大趋势下，结构性支撑仍 存，未来如果裂解价差调整充分，吸引炼厂端需求大幅回升，可以关注市场结构再度走强的机会。 低硫燃料油方面，目前市场压力有限，供应增量仍受到抑制，国产量维持低位，保税区供应偏紧的状况尚未完全 缓解。中期来看，由于低硫燃料油剩余产能较为充裕，一旦裂解利润适宜将吸引供应释放，且航运业碳中和趋势 将导致低硫燃料油市场份额被逐步替代，市场前景仍不容乐观。 策略 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品 ...