每经AI快讯，2月24日，燃料油连续主力合约日内涨4%，现报2978.00元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

燃料油日报 | 2026-02-05 站在品种自身基本面的角度来看，高硫燃料油当前基本面偏强，亚太地区现货边际收紧，市场结构较为坚挺。且 由于高硫燃料油是伊朗的主要出口产品之一，因此对于伊朗局势的风险敞口较大。此外，在委内瑞拉原油供应减 少后，国内沥青炼厂开始寻找替代原料，伊朗原油和燃料油是潜在选项，高硫燃料油需求存在一定增量预期。低 硫燃料油当前基本面矛盾不明显，市场压力有限，因此主要跟随原油端波动。 策略 高硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势走向 低硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势走向 跨品种：无 跨期：逢低多FU2603/2605价差（正套） 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 伊朗局势仍不明朗，炼厂端需求增量可期 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨3.98%，报2797元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨3.39%，报3268 元/吨。 近期能源板块波动受到伊朗局势影响较大。周初伊朗与美国计划开展谈判的消息一度导致油价大幅回撤。昨日局 势再度出现波折，伊朗无人机被美军击落，市场担忧情绪再度升温，原油地 ...

燃料油日报 | 2026-02-04 地缘局势边际缓和，关注美伊谈判进展 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌3.81%，报2701元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌2.28%，报3168 元/吨。 由于伊朗与美国计划在2月6日开展谈判，地缘局势边际缓和，本周原油价格大幅回调，带动燃料油在内的能化品 价格下跌。其中，由于伊朗是高硫燃料油主要生产国，FU对地缘反应的弹性要大于LU。需要注意的是，在伊朗与 美国谈判出相对明确的结果或信号前，市场可能受到消息面的反复扰动，叠加春节假期临近，需要保持谨慎。 站在基本面的角度来看，高硫燃料油呈现"东强西弱"格局，近期亚太地区现货边际收紧，新加坡库存连续下滑， 国内注册仓单量减少，排除宏观与地缘层面的扰动外，自身市场结构短期存在支撑。低硫燃料油方面，整体市场 矛盾有限，近期科威特与尼日利亚出口回升，但RFCC装置检修量下滑对低硫油组分完成了一定消化。 策略 高硫方面：中性，短期观望为主；关注美伊谈判进展 低硫方面：中性，短期观望为主；关注美伊谈判进展 跨品种：无 跨期：关注逢低多FU2603/2605价差机会（正套） 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic high - sulfur fuel oil imports are showing an increasing trend. The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has marginally improved recently, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads strengthening significantly, and downstream demand performing relatively well. The low - sulfur fuel oil market currently has limited contradictions and mainly follows the passive increase of the crude oil end, with the crack spread oscillating strongly recently. The remaining capacity is large, and the contradiction of the substitution of the demand share at the ship - fuel end still exists, which will be a continuous upward resistance. However, the high premium of gasoline and diesel will continue to divert low - sulfur oil components, providing a certain support for the valuation [1][2] - In the short term, both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to be oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation. For cross - period trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between FU2603 and FU2605 (positive spread) at low prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis - The main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 2.23% at 2751 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.31% at 3232 yuan/ton. The cold wave in the United States has caused a decline in oil production, and the resumption of production at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is slow, resulting in a phased positive on the supply side. The oil price rose again yesterday, boosting the energy sector. The Iranian situation remains unclear, and the market may be repeatedly disturbed by news in the short term [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the market structure of high - sulfur oil has improved marginally recently. After the United States gradually controls Venezuelan oil resources, domestic asphalt refineries need to find alternative raw materials, and fuel oil is one of the options. According to shipping schedule data, the estimated arrivals of high - sulfur fuel oil in January and February in China are 980,000 tons and 1.06 million tons respectively, significantly higher than the 830,000 tons in December. In addition, the supply from Russia and Iran faces potential threats from geopolitical conflicts, which poses an upward risk to the fuel oil market. However, if the Iranian situation eases, FU does not have the momentum to continue to strengthen [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the current market contradictions are limited, mainly following the passive increase of the crude oil end. With the dynamic changes of the Dangote and Azur refinery plants, the supply in Nigeria and Kuwait has increased significantly. In addition, after the widening of the east - west spread, the volume of arbitrage cargoes in February may increase, and the local market pressure may increase. Looking forward, the contradictions of large remaining capacity and the substitution of the demand share at the ship - fuel end still exist, which will be a continuous upward resistance. But based on the current valuation level, the high premium of gasoline and diesel will continue to divert low - sulfur oil components, providing a certain support for the valuation [2] Group 4: Strategy - High - sulfur: Oscillating strongly in the short term, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation [3] - Low - sulfur: Oscillating strongly in the short term, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation [3] - Cross - variety: No strategy [3] - Cross - period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between FU2603 and FU2605 (positive spread) at low prices [3] - Spot - futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3]

Core Viewpoint - Fuel oil futures continue to show weakness, with the main contract reported at 2674.00 CNY/ton, a decline of 2.23% [1] Group 1: Market Activity - In the Singapore spot market on January 26, there was one transaction for high-sulfur fuel oil 380, while there were no transactions for high-sulfur fuel oil 180 and low-sulfur fuel oil [2] - As of January, Russian fuel oil exports to Asia are approximately 1.2 million tons (about 246,000 barrels per day), expected to decline for the third consecutive month [2] Group 2: Refinery Operations - The utilization rate of main refinery vacuum distillation capacity was 78.78% for the week of January 16-22, an increase of 1.54% week-on-week and 2.66% year-on-year [2] - Independent refineries in China have a vacuum distillation capacity utilization rate of 60.75%, down 0.27 percentage points from the previous week [2] Group 3: Institutional Insights - Nanhua Futures notes that geopolitical influences from Iran and tightened U.S. sanctions have led to low high-sulfur exports from Iran, while exports from Venezuela, Iraq, and Russia have significantly recovered, easing supply tightness [3] - Demand for high-sulfur fuel oil is primarily directed towards the bunkering market, with the overall high-sulfur market fundamentals remaining weak [3] - Ruida Futures indicates that the fuel oil market is experiencing an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, with price volatility expected to be significant due to fluctuations in crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Fuel oil is still strong in the short term, and its volatility continues to increase [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil mainly follows the upward trend, and the price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For FU2602 (price in yuan/ton), the closing price is 2,540 - 2,542 with a daily increase of 0.40%, and the settlement price is 2,545 with an increase of 0.67% - 0.87%. The trading volume is 2,319 hands with a change of - 4,286 hands, and the open interest is 3,459 hands with a change of - 1,023 hands [1] - For FU2603 (price in yuan/ton), the daily increase is 0.67%, and the settlement price is 2,544. The trading volume is 493,603 hands with a change of 158,425 hands, and the open interest is 191,653 hands with a change of - 8,180 hands [1] - For LU2602 (price in yuan/ton), the closing price is 3,063 with a daily increase of 0.03%, and the settlement price is 3,073 with an increase of 0.07%. The trading volume is 117 hands with a change of - 238 hands, and the open interest is 3,443 hands with a change of - 64 hands [1] - For LU2603 (price in yuan/ton), the closing price is 3,090 with a daily increase of 0.07%, and the settlement price is 3,084 with an increase of 0.19%. The trading volume is 61,555 hands with a change of 7,700 hands, and the open interest is 63,307 hands with a change of - 2,411 hands [1] - The total market warehouse receipts for fuel oil (FU) are 74,550 hands with no change, and for low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) are 13,000 hands with no change [1] - **Spot Price Data**: - In Singapore FOB (price in dollars/ton), the high - sulfur (3.5%S) price on January 21, 2026 is 362.8 with a daily increase of 1.94%, and the low - sulfur (0.5%S) price is 428.7 with a daily increase of 0.63% [1] - In Singapore Bunker (price in dollars/ton), the high - sulfur price on January 21, 2026 is 380.0 with a daily increase of 1.88%, and the low - sulfur price is 444.0 with a daily increase of 0.68% [1] - In other regions like Fujeirah Bunker, Zhoushan Bunker, Shanghai Bunker, Tokyo Bunker, and South Korea Bunker, the high - sulfur and low - sulfur prices also show different daily increases [1] - **Spread Data**: - For FU02 - 03 (price in yuan/ton), the spread is - 2, and the settlement spread has a difference of 3 compared to it [1] - For LU02 - 03 (price in yuan/ton), the spread is - 27, and the settlement spread is - 11 with a spread difference of 16 [1] - For LU02 - FU02 (price in yuan/ton), the spread is 523, and the settlement spread is 528 with a difference of 5 [1] - For other spreads like FU2602 - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S), LU2602 - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S), and Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S), there are also corresponding spread values and changes [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 1, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Group 2: Core Views - The market of high - sulfur fuel oil in the US Gulf has weakened, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has rebounded. The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.32% at 2,461 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.93% at 3,026 yuan/ton [1] - With the escalating situation in Iran, the short - term oil price trend is volatile and bullish, but it is greatly affected by news, and the market may fluctuate repeatedly. The fundamentals of fuel oil have both long and short factors, with limited overall contradictions [2] - The large inflow of heavy oil from Venezuela to the US has increased the production of high - sulfur fuel oil in US Gulf refineries, leading to a significant decline in crack spreads, a wider price spread between the East and West regions of fuel oil, and potential growth in cargo inflows. The Singapore and domestic markets may face potential resistance. After the decline in crack spreads, refinery demand is expected to be boosted, providing support to the market. If the conflict in the Iranian region escalates, high - sulfur fuel oil supply may face a downward risk [2] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overall contradictions are currently limited. With the changes in the refinery operations in Nigeria and Kuwait, local supply may increase, and market pressure may rise. In the long run, the contradictions of large surplus capacity and the replacement of the ship - fuel demand share will continue to be a resistance factor, but the high premium of gasoline and diesel will continue to divert low - sulfur oil components, providing some support to the market [2] Group 3: Figures and Data - Figures related to Singapore fuel oil: Singapore high - sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contract, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contract, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil near - month spread, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil near - month spread [4] - Figures related to fuel oil FU futures: Main contract closing price, index closing price, near - month contract closing price, near - month contract spread, main contract trading volume and open interest, total trading volume and open interest [4] - Figures related to low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures: Main contract closing price, index closing price, near - month contract price, near - month spread, main contract trading volume and open interest, total trading volume and open interest [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: Go long on the spread of FU2603/2605 at low levels (positive spread trading) [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.04% at 2,458 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.14% at 2,929 yuan/ton [1] - The escalation of the situation in Venezuela has limited direct impact on the crude oil market but is bearish in the medium - to - long - term. Oil prices are in a weak oscillation, suppressing the unilateral prices of FU and LU [1] - The fundamentals of the fuel oil market have both bullish and bearish factors, with limited overall contradictions and regional differentiation. The spread between the East and West regions of high - sulfur fuel oil has widened recently [1] - For high - sulfur fuel oil, due to the shift of heavy oil resources from Asia to the US, the supply of residual oil in the US has increased, leading to a significant decline in the crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil in the US Gulf and a drop in the European crack spread. Meanwhile, the crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil in Asia has shown a slightly strong oscillation. In the future, the increase in the volume of shipments from the West to Asia may form an upward resistance to the Asian market pricing [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, there is an expectation of supply recovery in Kuwait and Nigeria due to changes in the status of plant overhauls. However, the premium of gasoline and diesel will divert low - sulfur oil components through the RFCC unit, and the short - term market pressure is expected to be limited [1] Group 3: Figures and Data - The report includes figures on Singapore high - sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contract, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contract, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil near - month spread, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil near - month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near - month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near - month contract spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing price, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures near - month contract price, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures near - month spread, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, and low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [3]

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.38% at RMB 2,437 per ton in the day session, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 2.29% at RMB 2,860 per ton [1] - The escalation of the situation in Venezuela has limited direct impact on the crude oil market, and the medium- and long-term impact is negative. Oil prices remain in a weak oscillation, providing limited impetus for FU and LU [2] - The current fundamentals of the fuel oil market have both bullish and bearish factors, with limited overall contradictions. The crack spread and premium of high-sulfur fuel oil have declined, leading to a marginal improvement in refinery demand. China's high-sulfur fuel oil imports have increased recently, but the spot market remains relatively loose [2] - Potential upside risks come from the geopolitical level. If the supply disruption of Venezuelan oil persists, domestic refineries may increase their fuel oil procurement demand. In addition, if the supply in Iran is affected by geopolitical tensions, the impact on the high-sulfur fuel oil market will be more direct [2] - In the low-sulfur fuel oil market, due to changes in the maintenance status of facilities (Azul and Dangote), there is an expectation of increased supply in Kuwait and Nigeria. According to shipping data, Kuwait's low-sulfur fuel oil shipments in January are expected to reach 330,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 310,000 tons. Meanwhile, Nigeria's shipments in January are expected to reach 140,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 60,000 tons [2] Group 2: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral to slightly bearish - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral to slightly bearish - Cross-variety: No strategy - Cross-period: Go long on the spread between FU2603 and FU2605 at low prices (positive spread trading) - Spot-future: No strategy - Options: No strategy [3] Group 3: Figures - Figures include Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near-month contract spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spread, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [4]

Report Summary Core View - The upward trend of fuel oil has temporarily paused, with support at lower levels. Low-sulfur fuel oil is in a narrow range, and the spot price spread between high and low sulfur in the overseas market is temporarily stable [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Key Points from the Report 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - FU2602 closed at 2,426 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day, with a settlement price of 2,454 yuan/ton, up 0.29%. - EU2603 closed at 2,427 yuan/ton, up 0.29%, with a settlement price of 2,461 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. - LU2602 closed at 2,879 yuan/ton, down 1.34%, with a settlement price of 2,907 yuan/ton, down 0.89%. - FU2603 closed at 2,891 yuan/ton, down 0.89%, with a settlement price of 2,917 yuan/ton, down 1.32% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: - Trading volume of FU2602 was 14,578, an increase of 4,408; open interest was 18,140, a decrease of 2,464. - Trading volume of EU2603 was 537,583, a decrease of 54,477; open interest was 193,088, an increase of 24,300. - Trading volume of LU2602 was 4,187, a decrease of 6,397; open interest was 11,523, a decrease of 1,767. - Trading volume of LU2603 was 77,556, a decrease of 35,187; open interest was 86,874, an increase of 6,393 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts Changes**: - Total market warehouse receipts of fuel oil (FU) decreased by 10,000 to 191,390; warehouse receipts of low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) remained unchanged at 55,230 [1]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: - Singapore FOB prices: High-sulfur (3.5%S) was $332.9/ton, down 1.38%; low-sulfur (0.5%S) was $403.4/ton, down 1.33%. - Singapore Bunker prices: High-sulfur was $346.0/ton, down 1.42%; low-sulfur was $415.0/ton, down 1.89%. - Other regional bunker prices also showed various changes, with South Korea's low-sulfur bunker price up 2.82% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread of FU02 - 03 was -1 yuan/ton, the spread of LU02 - 03 was -12 yuan/ton, and the spread of LU02 - FU02 was 453 yuan/ton. - The spread between FU2602 and Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) was 102.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.6 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spread between LU2602 and Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) was 63.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2 yuan/ton; the spread between Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) was $70.5/ton, a decrease of $0.8/ton [1]. 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and the trend intensity of low-sulfur fuel oil is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1].