燃料油日报 | 2025-11-25 市场驱动有限，盘面弱势震荡运行 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌0.28%，报2493元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌0.69%，报3034 元/吨。 原油价格延续弱势震荡态势，中期油市供过于求的预期在逐步兑现，如果俄乌局势缓和则地缘情绪溢价或进一步 消退，油价走低对燃料油单边价格存在一定压制。就燃料油自身基本面而言，当前市场驱动有限。低硫燃料油市 场结构小幅修复后再度遇到阻力，局部供应的收紧仅仅是阶段性的。具体来看，Dangote炼厂供应并未完全归零， 前期由于故障检修的阿祖尔炼厂部分装置有望在11月29日左右重启，苏丹低硫原油发货也在恢复。高硫燃料油方 面，市场支撑因素仍存，估值的下方支撑主要来自于炼厂端的弹性需求。 整体来看，高低硫燃料油短期市场矛盾有限，或跟随原油端波动，高低硫价差暂时不具备强趋势性。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 2025年期货市场研 ...

西南期货：燃料油主力合约暂时观望 上一交易日燃料油高开低走，仍收于均线组下方。11月21日(周五)，亚洲高硫燃料油现货贴水收窄， 380-cst高硫燃料油交易势头仍较为强劲。超低硫燃料油市场基本保持不变，现货价差停留在小幅升水状 态。Hi-5燃料油价差连续第三日缩小，反映出高硫燃料油小幅回升。衡量超低硫燃料油较380-cst高硫燃 料油升水的hi-5价差降至每吨80美元左右。高硫燃料油裂解价差上涨，但超低硫燃料油裂解价差仍承 压，尽管原油价格下跌。超低硫燃料油裂解价差跌至每桶升水约5.40美元，380-c高硫燃料油裂解价差 在震荡交投中升至每桶贴水近7美元。新加坡交易窗口据报达成四笔380-cst高硫燃料油交易，一笔超低 硫燃料油交易，未达成180-cs高硫燃料油交易。行情研判：亚洲燃料油现货贴水收窄，利空燃料油价 格。俄乌战争存在缓解迹象，利空燃料油价格。策略方面，燃料油主力合约暂时观望。 大越期货 预计高低硫价差进一步收窄 西南期货 燃料油主力合约暂时观望 大越期货：预计高低硫价差进一步收窄 由于对船货的需求小幅回升，提振船用燃料现货升水创下六个多星期以来的新高，但亚洲低硫燃料油市 场结构开始显现疲软，高 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-11-20 低硫油市场结构边际改善，但上行驱动仍有限 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.01%，报2560元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.21%，报3266 元/吨。 原油价格延续弱势震荡态势，虽然短期有地缘与宏观因素的扰动，但中期油市供过于求的预期在逐步兑现，对燃 料油单边价格存在一定压制。就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前处于高低硫强弱格局收敛的阶段，前期偏强的高硫 燃料油基本面边际转松，市场结构调整。但下方支撑因素依然存在，尤其裂解价差的回调将刺激炼厂端的弹性需 求。低硫燃料油方面，近期尼日利亚、科威特地区供应边际收紧，海外汽柴油偏强也对低硫燃料油估值形成一定 提振。但中期来看，低硫燃料油面临船燃需求被替代的矛盾，且自身剩余产能较为充裕，目前现货市场也没有出 现紧缺的状况，因此不具备持续走强的条件。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 跨品种：前期多LU-FU价差头寸可适当止盈 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 20 ...

燃料油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/18 | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/11/11 | 381.44 | 422.72 | -4.85 | 715.93 | -293.21 | 32.12 | 41.28 | | 2025/11/12 | 365.00 | 405.19 | -5.03 | 692.85 | -287.66 | 31.72 | 40.19 | | 2025/11/13 | 367.09 | 406.14 | -4.95 | 687.85 | -281.71 | 30.65 | 39.05 | | 2025/11/14 | 371. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The recent weak and volatile operation of crude oil prices has put some pressure on the FU and LU futures markets. High - sulfur fuel oil is in an adjustment phase, with a decline in crack spreads, monthly spreads, and spot premiums, but there are still structural support factors. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure has marginally eased due to reduced production from Azul and Dangote refineries, and the market structure has slightly repaired [2]. - The Azul refinery's planned restart of its device on November 11 has been postponed to around December 9, and the observed Kuwaiti low - sulfur fuel oil shipments remain at zero, which provides some short - term support to the market [2]. Strategy Summary High - sulfur Fuel Oil - Short - term: Neutral; Medium - term: Bearish [3] Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Short - term: Neutral; Medium - term: Bearish [3] Cross -品种 Strategy - Go long on the LU2601 - FU2601 spread on dips [3] Cross - term Strategy - None [3] Spot - futures Strategy - None [3] Options Strategy - None [3] Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.45% at 2,671 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.08% at 3,262 yuan/ton [1]

成文日期：20251110 报告周期：周报 研究品种:燃料油 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 料油期货用服 核心观点: 本周燃料油合约整体呈现震荡下跌态势，整体跟随国际原油波 动节奏,相对低硫燃料油表现偏弱。国际原油方面,虽受俄乌地缘 风险、欧盟对俄制裁传闻等因素短期支撑，但四季度累库预期未改. 价格震荡偏弱，对燃料油市场指引有限，FU2601 或整体维持区间 波动格局。 1期货市场 1.1 合约行情 本周燃料油主力合约 FU2601 收于 2695 元/吨，较前一交易周 结算价下跌 50元/吨,跌幅为 1.82%。本周最高价为 2809 元/吨, 最低价为 2672 元/吨，成交量为 2314688 手，持仓量为 202923 手，增加 10710 手。 图 1：FU 燃油主力合约分时图 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线: 4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源：国金期货博易云 1.2 品种价格 燃料油期货合约价格呈现近高远低的反向市场格局, 整体表现 FU260 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with a short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with a short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has slightly weakened, and the market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil has been weak recently. The strength pattern of high and low sulfur has changed marginally, and the high-low sulfur spread has rebounded slightly from a low level [1] - After the continuous rebound of crude oil prices, resistance has emerged again, and the FU and LU disk prices have followed suit. Currently, there are still macro uncertainties, so caution is advised [1] - If there are no major problems with Russian supply, there is no shortage expectation in the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and the upward valuation space is limited [1] - With the restart of the RFCC unit of the Dangote refinery, the local supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to ease marginally [1] Market Analysis Summary - The main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 1.2% at 2,796 yuan/ton, and the main contract of the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.55% at 3,246 yuan/ton [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil recently show a pattern of "high-sulfur stronger than low-sulfur", but the market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has shown signs of slight weakness. While the unilateral price has followed the decline of crude oil, the outer market month spread and crack spread have also declined [1] - The fundamentals and market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil have been weak recently [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.74% at 2,818 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.71% at 3,273 yuan/ton. After the continuous rebound of crude oil prices, resistance emerged again, and the FU and LU markets adjusted accordingly. Due to the current macro uncertainties, caution is advised [1]. - The current fundamental situation of fuel oil shows that "high - sulfur is stronger than low - sulfur". High - sulfur fuel oil production in Russia has been affected by drone attacks, leading to unplanned maintenance in several refineries and a marginal tightening of supply. Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments in October are expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous month. The impact of sanctions on Russian supply is difficult to quantify, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has certain support [1]. - The fundamentals and market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil have been weak recently. However, with the restart of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery, the local supply pressure is expected to ease marginally, and the downside space based on the current valuation level is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.74% at 2,818 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.71% at 3,273 yuan/ton [1]. - After the continuous rebound of crude oil prices, resistance emerged, and the FU and LU markets adjusted. Due to macro uncertainties, caution is needed [1]. - The fundamental situation of fuel oil is "high - sulfur is stronger than low - sulfur". High - sulfur fuel oil supply in Russia has tightened marginally due to refinery maintenance. Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments in October are expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous month. The impact of sanctions on Russian supply is hard to quantify, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has support [1]. - The fundamentals and market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil are weak, but with the restart of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery, the local supply pressure is expected to ease marginally, and the downside space based on the current valuation is limited [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil price has been continuously declining recently under the influence of multiple negative factors such as the fundamentals, the macro - aspect, and geopolitical policies, suppressing the overall energy sector. Due to the key window period of Sino - US and Russia - Ukraine negotiations, macro uncertainties remain, and caution is advised [1] - The current fundamental situation of fuel oil shows a differentiation pattern where high - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil. For high - sulfur fuel oil, there is some support in its structure, but the peak demand season for power generation has ended, and the market has mixed long and short factors, with limited upward driving force based on the current valuation [1] - The recent fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are relatively weak. Supply from Africa, South America, etc. has increased, and the market supply is abundant. Under the intensifying trade disputes, the shipping and marine fuel demand face potential risks. The downstream demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is more concentrated and may be more sensitive to tariff frictions. However, the RFCC unit of Dangote refinery restarted on October 19, and the current operating rate is around 60%. The estimated low - sulfur fuel oil shipment volume from Nigeria in October is 340,000 tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons compared with the previous month. If the RFCC unit operates stably, the local supply pressure is expected to ease [2] Group 3: Strategy Summary - High - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, mainly wait - and - see in the short term [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, mainly wait - and - see in the short term [3] - There are no specific strategies for cross - varieties, cross - periods, spot - futures, options [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Summary - The main contract of fuel oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.11% at 2,647 yuan/ton during the day session. The main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.42% at 3,072 yuan/ton during the day session [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices have been weak recently due to looser fundamentals and potential tariff frictions, suppressing the overall energy sector. The fundamentals of fuel oil itself have a mix of long and short factors, with limited market drivers. High-sulfur fuel oil's supply from Iran and Russia is affected by sanctions and drone attacks, and after the end of the Middle East demand peak season, fuel oil exports have room for further growth. Low-sulfur fuel oil's current fundamentals and market structure are weaker than those of high-sulfur fuel oil, with increased supply from Africa, South America, etc., and potential risks in shipping and marine fuel demand. The pressure on the low-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to ease after the restart of the Dangote refinery's RFCC unit [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of the SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.82%, at 2,672 yuan/ton; the night session of the main contract of the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.55%, at 3,114 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, short-term wait-and-see [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, short-term wait-and-see [3] - Cross-variety: No strategy [3] - Cross-period: No strategy [3] - Spot-futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3] Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including those related to Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil spot prices, swap near-month contracts, near-month spreads, as well as fuel oil FU and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures' main contract closing prices, index closing prices, near-month contract prices, near-month spreads, and trading volume and open interest [4]