燃料油日报 | 2025-06-05 油价震荡偏强，市场短期矛盾有限 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.34%，报2925元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.92%，报3511 元/吨。 原油价格在欧佩克后走势震荡偏强，短期基本面较为稳固，市场存在一定支撑，但中期仍面临平衡表转为过剩的 压力，将制约反弹空间。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫燃料油市场结构出现边际转弱的迹象，裂解价差从绝对高位出现一定幅度回落。 随着夏季临近，中东、埃及等地发电端需求逐步提升，为亚洲市场提供一定支撑，预计短期下行压力有限。但由 于高硫油裂解价差过高，下游炼厂端需求受到压制，叠加欧佩克加速增产的计划，未来发电终端采购回落后市场 将开始面临压力。需要裂解价差下跌来吸引炼厂端的弹性需求。低硫燃料油方面，短期供应压力有限，市场结构 持稳运行，但中期仍面临船燃端需求份额被替代的矛盾，不具备持续走强的逻辑。 策略 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品种：空FU裂解价差（FU-SC或FU-Brent），FU市场结构短期仍有支撑，关注逢高布局机会 跨期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market structure of fuel oil remains stable, with the short - term fundamentals of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil being acceptable. However, in the medium term, the contradiction of demand share substitution and surplus production capacity has not been reversed [2]. - The price of crude oil has been fluctuating recently, and its short - term direction is unclear, providing limited guidance for FU and LU prices [2]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, as summer approaches, the demand from power plants in the Middle East and other regions is entering a seasonal growth stage, but the substitution demand for fuel oil may decline year - on - year this year [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.29% at 3,074 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.25% at 3,571 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term trend is oscillating with a slight upward bias, but there is still pressure in the medium term [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term trend is oscillating with a slight upward bias, but there is still pressure in the medium term [3]. - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [3]. - Cross - period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between FU2507 and FU2509 at low levels (positive spread) [3]. - Futures - spot: No strategy provided [3]. - Options: No strategy provided [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.12% at 3,057 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 3.08% at 3,647 yuan/ton [1]. - After the first round of Sino-US trade negotiations and the improvement of macro sentiment, crude oil prices have shown a volatile and strong trend recently, boosting the overall energy sector. However, the medium-term oversupply expectation in the crude oil market has not reversed, and resistance may begin to appear after continuous rebounds [1]. - For fuel oil fundamentals, tariff cuts are beneficial to trade and shipping demand, and there is additional restocking demand within the 90-day suspension period, which is expected to drive the improvement of marine fuel oil consumption. Low-sulfur fuel oil demand is more concentrated in the marine fuel end and may be more sensitive. After the Mediterranean ECA came into effect in May, although the demand for low-sulfur fuel oil was partially replaced, refineries also reduced the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil through product adjustment. The European market performed stronger than expected, and the tightening of arbitrage cargo volume also supported the Asian market. For high-sulfur fuel oil, as summer approaches, the demand of power plants in the Middle East and other regions enters a seasonal growth stage. According to Platts data, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah recorded 9.339 million barrels this week, a month-on-month decrease of 10.73%, which may be due to the increased procurement of nearby power plants [1]. - High-sulfur fuel oil: short-term volatile and strong, medium-term pressure still exists; Low-sulfur fuel oil: short-term volatile and strong, medium-term pressure still exists; Cross-variety: no strategy; Cross-period: pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread of FU2507 - 2509 at low prices (positive spread); Spot-futures: no strategy; Options: no strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.12% at 3,057 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 3.08% at 3,647 yuan/ton [1]. - Crude oil prices are volatile and strong recently, but the medium-term oversupply expectation has not reversed [1]. - Tariff cuts are beneficial to fuel oil consumption, and low-sulfur fuel oil may be more sensitive. The European market for low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than expected, and the Asian market is supported. High-sulfur fuel oil demand in the Middle East enters a seasonal growth stage, and Fujairah fuel oil inventory has decreased [1]. Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: short-term volatile and strong, medium-term pressure still exists [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: short-term volatile and strong, medium-term pressure still exists [2]. - Cross-variety: no strategy [2]. - Cross-period: pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread of FU2507 - 2509 at low prices (positive spread) [2]. - Spot-futures: no strategy [2]. - Options: no strategy [2]. Charts - Multiple charts show the prices, spreads, closing prices, and trading volumes of Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil, as well as fuel oil FU and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures [3].