燃料油日报 | 2025-10-14 风险 宏观风险显现，市场波动增加 市场分析 就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前基本面尚可，中东供应收紧与炼厂端需求改善对市场形成提振。但基于目前的估 值水平与供需状况来看，上行驱动和空间仍有限，需要新的变量催化。 低硫燃料油方面，近期Dangote与Pengerang炼厂RFCC装置停工导致局部低硫燃料油供应增加，9月份发货量达到50 万吨，对现货市场形成一定压制。而根据IIR最新消息，Dangote炼厂装置可能会在10月14日重启，如果顺利运行则 该炼厂低硫燃料油产量将再度回落，从而缓解局部供应压力。值得一提的是，在关税风险增加的背景下，航运与 船燃需求也面临潜在压力，相较于高硫燃料油，低硫燃料油下游需求更为集中，反应可能更为敏感。 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌2.35%，报2737元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌3%，报3232元/ 吨。 策略 原油价格近期连续下跌，带动能源板块整体走低，FU、LU盘面弱势运行。当前处于中美关税谈判窗口期，油价可 能受到各种消息面的扰动，波动率或明显增加，需要保持谨慎。 高硫方面：谨慎偏空，短期观望为主 低硫方面：谨慎偏空， ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices are oscillating strongly after OPEC actions. The short - term fundamentals are relatively stable with some market support, but there is pressure on the balance sheet to turn into surplus in the medium term, which will limit the rebound space [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the market structure shows signs of marginal weakening, and the crack spread has declined from an absolute high. With the approaching summer, the power - generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt is increasing, providing some support to the Asian market. However, due to the high crack spread, the refinery demand is suppressed, and there will be pressure on the market after the power - generation terminal purchases decline [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the short - term supply pressure is limited, and the market structure is stable, but it faces the contradiction of being replaced in the marine fuel demand share in the medium term and lacks the logic for continuous strength [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.34% at 2,925 yuan/ton during the day session, while the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.92% at 3,511 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: The market is expected to oscillate [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The market is expected to oscillate [2]. - Cross - variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU - SC or FU - Brent). The FU market structure still has short - term support, and opportunities for high - level layout should be watched [2]. - Cross - period: No strategy is provided [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy is provided [2]. - Options: No strategy is provided [2]. Figures - There are multiple figures showing various aspects of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, including spot prices, swap contracts, month - to - month spreads, futures contract closing prices, and trading volumes in Singapore and domestic markets, with different units such as US dollars/ton and yuan/ton [3][4][6][9][14][17][28][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market structure of fuel oil remains stable, with the short - term fundamentals of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil being acceptable. However, in the medium term, the contradiction of demand share substitution and surplus production capacity has not been reversed [2]. - The price of crude oil has been fluctuating recently, and its short - term direction is unclear, providing limited guidance for FU and LU prices [2]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, as summer approaches, the demand from power plants in the Middle East and other regions is entering a seasonal growth stage, but the substitution demand for fuel oil may decline year - on - year this year [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.29% at 3,074 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.25% at 3,571 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term trend is oscillating with a slight upward bias, but there is still pressure in the medium term [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term trend is oscillating with a slight upward bias, but there is still pressure in the medium term [3]. - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [3]. - Cross - period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between FU2507 and FU2509 at low levels (positive spread) [3]. - Futures - spot: No strategy provided [3]. - Options: No strategy provided [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.12% at 3,057 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 3.08% at 3,647 yuan/ton [1]. - After the first round of Sino-US trade negotiations and the improvement of macro sentiment, crude oil prices have shown a volatile and strong trend recently, boosting the overall energy sector. However, the medium-term oversupply expectation in the crude oil market has not reversed, and resistance may begin to appear after continuous rebounds [1]. - For fuel oil fundamentals, tariff cuts are beneficial to trade and shipping demand, and there is additional restocking demand within the 90-day suspension period, which is expected to drive the improvement of marine fuel oil consumption. Low-sulfur fuel oil demand is more concentrated in the marine fuel end and may be more sensitive. After the Mediterranean ECA came into effect in May, although the demand for low-sulfur fuel oil was partially replaced, refineries also reduced the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil through product adjustment. The European market performed stronger than expected, and the tightening of arbitrage cargo volume also supported the Asian market. For high-sulfur fuel oil, as summer approaches, the demand of power plants in the Middle East and other regions enters a seasonal growth stage. According to Platts data, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah recorded 9.339 million barrels this week, a month-on-month decrease of 10.73%, which may be due to the increased procurement of nearby power plants [1]. - High-sulfur fuel oil: short-term volatile and strong, medium-term pressure still exists; Low-sulfur fuel oil: short-term volatile and strong, medium-term pressure still exists; Cross-variety: no strategy; Cross-period: pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread of FU2507 - 2509 at low prices (positive spread); Spot-futures: no strategy; Options: no strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.12% at 3,057 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 3.08% at 3,647 yuan/ton [1]. - Crude oil prices are volatile and strong recently, but the medium-term oversupply expectation has not reversed [1]. - Tariff cuts are beneficial to fuel oil consumption, and low-sulfur fuel oil may be more sensitive. The European market for low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than expected, and the Asian market is supported. High-sulfur fuel oil demand in the Middle East enters a seasonal growth stage, and Fujairah fuel oil inventory has decreased [1]. Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: short-term volatile and strong, medium-term pressure still exists [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: short-term volatile and strong, medium-term pressure still exists [2]. - Cross-variety: no strategy [2]. - Cross-period: pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread of FU2507 - 2509 at low prices (positive spread) [2]. - Spot-futures: no strategy [2]. - Options: no strategy [2]. Charts - Multiple charts show the prices, spreads, closing prices, and trading volumes of Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil, as well as fuel oil FU and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures [3].