贸易忧虑

Search documents
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250721
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 02:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - For soybean meal, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are all positive. In the short - term, it's expected to be strong, in the medium - term, it's also strong, and the reference view is oscillating strongly. The core logic is that due to trade concerns, the forward purchase rhythm is slow, the supply pressure is not transmitted to the far - month, and the forward supply is tight. With high refinery operating rates, the refinery's soybean meal inventory has increased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the negative basis persists. Short - term soybean meal futures prices are dominated by supply expectations, with futures stronger than spot and stronger than US soybeans, and the rebound continues [5]. - For palm oil, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly. The core logic is that the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy boosts future biodiesel demand, which supports palm oil futures prices. Domestic palm oil follows the international market. With the return of funds due to energy demand, the price gets support. However, as international oil prices fall again, the palm oil price oscillates weakly in the short - term [8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by trade concerns, the forward purchase rhythm is slow, so the supply pressure is not transmitted to the far - month, and the forward supply is tight. With high refinery operating rates, the refinery's soybean meal inventory has increased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the negative basis persists. Short - term soybean meal futures prices are dominated by supply expectations, with futures stronger than spot and stronger than US soybeans, and the rebound continues [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: The implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy boosts future biodiesel demand, which supports palm oil futures prices. Domestic palm oil follows the international market. With the return of funds due to energy demand, the price gets support. However, as international oil prices fall again, the palm oil price oscillates weakly in the short - term [8]. Other Considerations - For soybean meal 2509, factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, refinery operating rhythm, and stocking demand [7]. - For soybean oil 2509, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and refinery inventory [7]. - For palm 2509, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [7].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250710
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 01:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term trends of various agricultural commodity futures are mainly in a state of oscillation, with different degrees of strength or weakness in the short - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic**: Good weather in US soybean - producing areas, rising trade concerns, a well - supplied domestic soybean market, 8 - week consecutive low - level increase in oil mill soybean meal inventory, high - level continuous soybean meal pick - up volume, and an un - reversed negative basis of soybean meal. The short - term soybean meal futures price is affected by import cost, supply pressure, and trade concerns and turns to oscillating [5]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: The recent oil market is affected by the volatility of international oil prices, and market funds' attention to palm oil has increased. The palm oil market focuses on whether the Malaysian palm oil inventory can decline as expected. The phased supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil has tightened, Indian demand for importing palm oil has increased, and with the attention of funds, palm oil performs relatively strongly in the oil sector [7]. 3.3. Other Related Information - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month (based on the previous day's night - session closing price) [6]. - **Factors Affecting Different Varieties**: For soybean meal 2509, factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand; for soybean oil 2509, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory; for palm 2509, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].