期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-30 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多因素消化，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多因素消化，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区步入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，同时胶 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 | 观望 | 流动性恢复利好金价，节前多头 了结意愿较强 | | | | | | 偏强 | | | | 铜 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复叠加产业强预期推升 铜价，节前多头了结意愿较强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：强势 ...

南华商品指数：黑色板块上涨，能化板块领跌 2025-12-29 16:32:49 摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数下跌-0.49%。板块指数中，只有南华黑色指数，上涨 0.22%，其余板块均是下跌，跌幅最大的板块是南华能化指数，跌幅为-1.27%，跌幅最小的板块是南华金属指数， 跌幅为-0.06%。 主题指数中，只有黑色原材料指数，上涨0.23%，其余主题指数均是下跌，跌幅最大的主题指数是 能源指数，跌幅为-1.64%，跌幅最小的主题指数是建材指数，跌幅为-0.07%。 商品期货单品种指数中，涨幅最大的 单品种指数是白银，上涨5.25%，跌幅最大的商品期货单品种指数是碳酸锂，跌幅为 王怡琳 > 南华期货 lgger mind, Bigger fortun 智慧创造财富 南华商品指数日报 南华商品指数日报 2025年12月29日 | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 南华商品指数市场数据 | | | | | | 指数名称 | 今收盘 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 3 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：市场呈现近弱远强的分化走势，资金向远期 2605 合约移仓迹象明显。美豆期价在中国采 购预期与南美天气变化之间反复博弈，巴西南部和阿根廷降雨减少为市场提供了天气题材，但美豆出 口的实际兑现程度仍存不确定性。国内方面，高企的豆粕库存与充足的现货供应对豆粕基差构成压 力。然而，远期市场的逻辑有所不同，M2605 合约的震荡走强反映了资金对未来进口成本攀升预期以 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures including precious metals, base metals, black industry, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It also mentions potential investment opportunities and risks in different sectors [1][2][3][4][5][6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Friday, gold and silver prices rose significantly. London gold reached $4250 per ounce, up 1.73%, and London silver closed at $56.71 per ounce, up 6.12% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Putin agreed to use the US list on Ukraine issue for future negotiations; the speech of the Bank of Japan governor on Monday will determine the policy direction; French President Macron will visit China in early December. There were changes in inventories of gold and silver in different locations, and the holdings of some ETFs remained stable or increased [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest to buy gold at the lower support level. For silver, due to the reappearance of overseas market tensions, short - term long positions can be taken [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices strengthened significantly on Friday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The expectation of a December interest rate cut exceeded 80%. The cesco meeting signaled a clear seller's market for copper concentrate and refined copper. There were spot premiums for copper in East and South China, and the London structure was in a back situation. Global visible inventory decreased weekly, and COMEX had locked and immovable inventory [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest to buy on dips [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.51% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 21,610 yuan per ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 135 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $2865 per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the increase in the aluminum product operating rate, the decline in aluminum ingot inventory, and the favorable macro - environment at home and abroad, the fundamentals are improving marginally. The aluminum price shows a weak rebound and is expected to fluctuate strongly in the future [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.62% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 2707 yuan per ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 13 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, some alumina plants resumed production after previous overhauls, and the operating capacity increased again. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the loose supply, continuous inventory accumulation, and weak cost support, although the decline in the spot price has narrowed, the short - dominated pattern remains unchanged. The alumina price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The main contract of rebar 2601 closed at 3124 yuan per ton, up 39 yuan per ton from the previous night - session closing price [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of steel is weak, and the structural differentiation is significant. The demand for building materials has slightly improved marginally but remains weak year - on - year, and the supply has also decreased significantly year - on - year with limited contradictions. The demand for plates is stable, and direct and indirect exports remain high, but due to high production, inventory reduction is difficult. Rebar futures have a large discount and low valuation; hot - rolled coil futures' discount is basically the same as the previous period, with a high valuation. Steel mills are continuously losing money, and production may continue to decline marginally [3][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the steel mill's profit. The reference range for RB01 is 3080 - 3130 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main contract of iron ore 2601 closed at 796.5 yuan per ton, up 4 yuan per ton from the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore is weak. The weekly iron - making water production decreased by 16,000 tons, up 0.3% year - on - year. The fourth round of coke price increase failed, and the first round of price cut was proposed. Steel mills' profits are poor, and subsequent blast furnace production may decrease steadily. The supply is in line with seasonal rules and slightly increased year - on - year. The supply - demand of iron ore is weakening marginally. The iron ore maintains a forward discount structure, but the absolute level is at a relatively low level in the same period of history, with a moderately high valuation [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the steel mill's profit. The reference range for I01 is 780 - 800 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main contract of coking coal 2601 closed at 1068.5 yuan per ton, down 0.5 yuan per ton from the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making water production decreased by 16,000 tons to 2363,000 tons, up 0.3% year - on - year. Steel mills' profits are deteriorating, and subsequent blast furnace production may decrease steadily. The third round of price increase was implemented, but the fourth round failed and the first round of price cut was proposed. The inventory of each link on the supply side is differentiated. The inventory and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants are at a neutral level in the same period of history, and the pit - mouth inventory is low, with a neutral overall inventory level. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the forward premium structure remains, with a high futures valuation [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the steel mill's profit. The reference range for JM01 is 1050 - 1100 [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose last Friday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the near - term supply decreased, but it was still a quantitative change; the long - term supply in South America is expected to be large in a normal year, and it is currently in the sowing and growing stage. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, and exports are still in a game, depending on the future non - commercial procurement volume from China. In general, the global supply - demand situation is improving marginally but still loose [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are in a moderately strong oscillation, with valuation repair; the domestic market also follows the cost side in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on the progress of tariff policies and the output in the production area [5]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices were strong, while spot prices fell in North China and rose in Northeast China [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Weather factors postponed the supply. Currently, the national corn channel inventory is at a low level, and there is a need to build inventory. The deep - processing profit is good, the demand is strong, and the acquisition intention is high. The short - term supply - demand tightness led to a spot price rebound. However, the arrival of new corn in Northeast China is approaching, the new crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost of corn has decreased significantly, suppressing the long - term price expectation. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price has loosened, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and consolidate [5]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market rose last Friday, trading on the concern of floods in the production area [5]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the production in the production area is high, and the MPOA estimated that the production from November 1 - 20 increased by 3.2% month - on - month, but there were flood disturbances in the Indonesian production area. On the demand side, the ITS estimated that the Malaysian palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 decreased by 19% month - on - month. Overall, the Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate in the near - term and is expected to have a seasonal production decline in the long - term [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: P is strong, trading on the flood disturbances in the production area and variety differentiation. Attention should be paid to future production and biodiesel policies [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The ICE raw sugar 03 contract closed at 15.21 cents per pound, with a weekly increase of 2.98%. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5400 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 0.88%. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 215 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar with duty - paid after quota was 581 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the international sugar price rebounded slightly this week. Part of the negative impact of the northern hemisphere's production increase has been realized. The future export situation of India will affect the international trend. The raw sugar will oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and the global production increase trend will continue in the long - term, with the 26/27 sugar season continuing to find the bottom through oscillation. Domestically, the sugar price rebounded under the influence of raw sugar, but the increase was smaller than that of raw sugar. In the future, new sugar will be gradually launched, the production increase expectation in Guangxi has been significantly raised, and the import pressure in October is prominent. The domestic market will be under the dual pressure of production increase and import in the fourth quarter and is expected to continue to oscillate and decline [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short in the futures market; sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The US cotton futures price continued to rebound, and the international crude oil price stopped falling [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, as of the week ending October 16, the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year was 175,700 bales, an increase of 11% compared to the previous week and 17% compared to the average of the previous four weeks. The Indian Ministry of Agriculture began to lower the new - year cotton production forecast. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated upwards, and the Xinjiang basis decreased month - on - month. Currently, the downstream demand is relatively stable, and the overall production and sales of textile enterprises are normal [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips, with a strategy mainly in the range of 13,600 - 13,900 yuan per ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices continued to rebound, and egg spot prices rose slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of laying hens in production decreased, and the number of culled hens was at a high level, reducing the supply pressure. After the egg price rebounded, the market sales were average, and traders purchased as needed and the wait - and - see sentiment gradually increased. The increase in vegetable prices boosted the egg price. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the egg price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices were weak, while most pig spot prices rebounded [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The pig supply is still abundant, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. The supply - demand pressure has eased compared to the previous period. However, approaching the Winter Solstice, there may be a wave of concentrated slaughter by farmers, and the reduction in supply at the end of the month has limited support. The pig price is expected to weaken seasonally, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is abundant, the expectation is pessimistic, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at 9450 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 0.11%. The apple prices in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong were stable, with different price ranges for different grades and types of apples [6]. - **Fundamentals**: This year, the total apple production is low, the inventory is low, and the quality is poor. The national total production decreased by 8% - 15% year - on - year, and the high - quality fruit rate is less than 20%, lower than the previous level of over 30%. Farmers and merchants are pessimistic about the cold - storage market but optimistic about the spot market. The spot acquisition price has increased significantly, and the acquisition price of high - quality apples in the Northwest region has reached over 5 yuan per catty. However, the large - scale listing of winter seasonal fruits will put seasonal pressure on the apple price [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [6]. Energy Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract rebounded slightly on Friday. The low - price spot price in North China was 6730 yuan per ton, the basis of the 01 contract was the futures price minus 60, the basis weakened, and the market trading performance was acceptable. Overseas, the US dollar price decreased slightly, and the current import window was closed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, new plants were put into operation, some plants reduced production or stopped, and the domestic supply pressure eased. The import window remained closed, and the future import volume was expected to decrease slightly. Overall, the domestic supply pressure increased but at a slower pace. On the demand side, the current downstream agricultural film season is off - peak, the demand decreased month - on - month, and the demand in other fields remained stable [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory decreased slightly, the basis was weak, the supply - demand was weak. As it enters the delivery month, it will mainly oscillate weakly, and the upside space is significantly restricted by the import window. In the long - term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of next year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V01 closed at 4580, up 0.7% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: PVC prices increased slightly driven by the macro - environment. The supply increased, with new plants such as Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Bohua put into operation, and the supply increased by 1% month - on - month. The production in October was 2.12 million tons, up 5.6% year - on - year, and the expected operating rate in the fourth quarter is 78% - 80%. The operating rate of downstream factories began to decline, around 38%. The real estate market weakened in October, with new construction and completion decreasing by 17% year - on - year. The social inventory was at a high level, and the PVC social inventory on November 28 was 1.0428 million tons, up 0.99% month - on - month and 23.44% year - on - year [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to short [8]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: On Friday, RU2601 was strong, closing at 15,410 yuan per ton, up 1.22% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: On November 28, the price of Thai He'ai glue was 57 Thai baht per kilogram (unchanged), and the price of cup rubber decreased slightly by 0.2 - 0.4 Thai baht per kilogram. The spot market price center increased, and downstream enterprises made rigid purchases. The price of Thai mixed rubber was 14,680 yuan per ton (up 80), and the price of whole - milk rubber was 14,950 yuan per ton (up 100). Last week, some semi - steel tire sample enterprises had overhauls, and the capacity utilization rate was 66% (down 3.36%); the full - steel tire enterprises that had overhauls resumed production, and the capacity utilization rate was 62.75% (up 0.71%) [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: There is still an expectation of seasonal output increase, inventory accumulation, and downstream demand pressure. The rubber price lacks more positive support for an upward trend. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to close long positions. In the medium - term, the rubber price will still oscillate widely, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: FG01 closed at 1040, down 1.2% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The glass price rebounded recently, mainly due to more cold - repairs and cost support. Hubei Yijun is expected to shut down 2 production lines, and Sanxia New Material will shut down 1 production line, with the expected daily melting volume to decrease by 4000 tons. The inventory is at a high level, and the upstream inventory on November 27 was 62.362 million heavy boxes, down 1.49% month -

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the South China Comprehensive Index rose 0.69% today. Among the sector indices, only the South China Precious Metals Index fell by -0.03%, while the rest of the sectors rose. The sector with the largest increase was the South China Black Index, with a gain of 1.52%, and the sector with the smallest increase was the South China Agricultural Products Index, with a gain of 0.23%. All theme indices rose, with the Black Raw Materials Index having the largest increase of 1.55% and the Oilseeds and Oils Index having the smallest increase of 0.02%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the single - variety index with the largest increase was lithium carbonate, up 2.99%, and the single - variety index with the largest decrease was red dates, down - 3.35% [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data of South China Commodity Index - The South China Comprehensive Index (NHCI) closed at 2563.19 today, up 17.56 points or 0.69% from yesterday. Its annualized return is 0.49%, annualized volatility is 11.89%, and the Sharpe ratio is 0.04. The South China Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) closed at 1523.51, down 0.50 points or - 0.03%, with an annualized return of 47.67%, annualized volatility of 17.97%, and a Sharpe ratio of 2.65. Other indices such as the Industrial Products Index (NHII), Metal Index (NHMI), etc., also have their respective closing prices, changes, annualized returns, volatilities, and Sharpe ratios [3]. Main Single - Variety Index Yield vs Volatility - No specific summary content provided for this part other than the title. Historical Trend Charts of South China Comprehensive Index and Sector Indices (Normalized) - No specific summary content provided for this part other than the title. Historical Trend Charts of South China Theme Indices (Normalized) - No specific summary content provided for this part other than the title. Industry Chain Diagrams and Single - Variety Index Daily Changes of Some Varieties in Different Sectors - In the energy and chemical sector, glass rose 1.38%, synthetic ammonia, coal, polyethylene, polypropylene, naphtha, citrus, and crude oil had their respective changes. In the black sector and agricultural products sector, relevant variety chain diagrams and single - variety index daily changes are presented, such as rapeseed oil in the agricultural products sector falling - 0.13%, etc. [13][17]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report As calculated based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.08% today. Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index had the largest increase of 0.68%, while the Nanhua Metals Index had the smallest increase of 0.09%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest decline of - 0.74%, and the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest decline of - 0.06%. Among the theme indices, the Energy Index had the largest increase of 0.9%, and the Building Materials Index had the largest decline of - 0.86%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Fuel Oil Index had the largest increase of 2.25%, and the Red Date Index had the largest decline of - 3.72% [1][3]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Index - The Nanhua Composite Index closed at 2545.63 yesterday and 2543.71 today, with an increase of 1.92 points and a daily increase of 0.08%, an annualized return rate of - 0.31%, and an annualized volatility of 11.87% [3]. - The Nanhua Precious Metals Index closed at 1535.31 yesterday and 1524.01 today, with a decrease of 11.31 points and a daily decline of - 0.74%, an annualized return rate of - 0.03%, and an annualized volatility of 50.30% [3]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index closed at 3562.25 yesterday and 3555.56 today, with an increase of 6.69 points and a daily increase of 0.19%, an annualized return rate of - 8.16%, and an annualized volatility of 14.21% [3]. - Other indices such as the Metals Index, Energy and Chemical Index, etc., also have corresponding data on closing prices, daily changes, annualized return rates, and annualized volatilities [3]. Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Changes to Index Changes - For the Nanhua Industrial Products Index, varieties such as crude oil and fuel oil have positive contributions, while natural rubber and PVC have negative contributions [3]. - For the Nanhua Composite Index, crude oil and fuel oil have positive contributions, while natural rubber and iron ore have negative contributions [3]. - Similar contribution analyses are also provided for other indices such as the Nanhua Mini - Composite Index, Nanhua Metals Index, etc [3]. Single - Variety Index Data - Some single - variety index data are presented, including the daily changes of individual products such as glass, LLDPE, and natural rubber [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The gold market may experience significant short - term fluctuations, and it is recommended to take partial profits on gold long positions and reduce silver long positions [2]. - The aluminum price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, while the rebound space of alumina is limited [3]. - For zinc, it is advisable to sell short at high prices; for lead, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate between 8000 - 9000, and it is recommended to wait and see; lithium carbonate is expected to be in short supply in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the reduction of warehouse receipts [4]. - In the black industry, it is recommended to wait and see for most varieties and take profits on long positions in a timely manner [6]. - For soybeans, the short - term is strong, but it depends on trade negotiations; for corn, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly; for oils and fats, they are weak and differentiated; for sugar, it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, it is recommended to buy at low prices; for eggs and pigs, the futures prices are expected to oscillate [7][8]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different varieties have different trends. Some are expected to oscillate in the short - term and be in a loose supply - demand pattern in the long - term, and corresponding trading strategies such as shorting at high prices or waiting and seeing are recommended [10][11][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - Market performance: International gold priced in London gold rebounded on Thursday, rising above $4100 [2]. - Fundamentals: Sino - US economic and trade consultations will be held; the US established a critical minerals fund; there are various international political and economic events; domestic and international gold and silver inventories have different changes [2]. - Trading strategy: The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, but there are contradictions in the outlook. It is recommended to take partial profits on gold long positions and reduce silver long positions [2]. Basic Metals Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.57% compared with the previous trading day, and the LME price was $2845.5 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate is stable [3]. - Trading strategy: The macro - sentiment is positive, downstream demand is warming up, and aluminum ingots have been destocked for two consecutive weeks. The price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [3]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.32% compared with the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan carried out maintenance or production reduction, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading strategy: The short - covering of the main short positions caused a small rebound in the market, but the supply - demand surplus pattern of alumina remains unchanged. The rebound space is expected to be limited [3]. Zinc - Market performance: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2511 contract increased by 1.43% compared with the previous trading day [3][4]. - Fundamentals: The supply pressure persists, the domestic mine TC has decreased, but the smelting profit is still high. The consumption end has no outstanding performance, and the inventory situation is complex [4]. - Trading strategy: Sell short at high prices [4]. Lead - Market performance: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract increased by 2.65% compared with the previous trading day [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply end has resumed production, but the consumption end is resilient. The low social inventory increases the risk of a short squeeze [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see [4]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main 01 contract closed at 9060 yuan/ton, up 2.9% [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply end may reduce production in the southwest in late October. The demand end is supported by the high start - up rate of polysilicon [4]. - Trading strategy: The short - term trend is affected by other varieties and the photovoltaic industry chain, and it is expected to oscillate between 8000 - 9000. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: LC2601 closed at 79,940 yuan/ton, up 3.66% [4]. - Fundamentals: The price of lithium carbonate and related raw materials has changed. The supply has increased, and the demand has also increased. It is expected to be in a state of destocking [4]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to be in short supply in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the reduction of warehouse receipts [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The rebar main 2601 contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5][6]. - Fundamentals: The apparent demand and output of rebar and hot - rolled coils have increased. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, but the structural differentiation is significant [6]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see mainly, and take profits on long positions in a timely manner. The reference range for RB01 is 3020 - 3090 [6]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The iron ore main 2601 contract closed at 777 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron output has decreased slightly, the inventory has increased, and the first round of coke price increase has been implemented [6]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see mainly. The reference range for I01 is 750 - 780 [6]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The coking coal main 2601 contract closed at 1251 yuan/ton, up 35.5 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron output has decreased slightly, the first round of price increase has been implemented, and the second round has some resistance. The inventory is at a low level, and the futures valuation is high [6]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see mainly, and take profits on long positions in a timely manner. The reference range for JM01 is 1230 - 1270 [6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market performance: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose on the optimistic expectation of Sino - US trade [7]. - Fundamentals: The US soybeans have a slight reduction in production, and South America has an expected increase in production. The demand is differentiated [7]. - Trading strategy: The short - term of US soybeans is strong, but it depends on trade negotiations. The domestic situation is currently loose, but the medium - term is uncertain [7]. Corn - Market performance: The corn futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price fluctuated [7]. - Fundamentals: The corn quality in North China has been damaged by rain, and the new corn in the Northeast is about to be listed in large quantities. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the pressure of new crop listing [7]. Oils and Fats - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose [8]. - Fundamentals: The production in Malaysia is good, and the export has increased. The near - term inventory is accumulating, and the far - term will have seasonal production reduction [8]. - Trading strategy: Oils and fats are weak and differentiated. It is recommended to take a reverse spread for palm oil [8]. Sugar - Market performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5455 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [8]. - Fundamentals: The sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 25/26 season has exceeded that of the previous year. The domestic new - season production is expected to increase, and the futures - spot basis will converge through the decline of the spot price [8]. - Trading strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. Cotton - Market performance: The overnight US cotton futures price stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Fundamentals: The cotton import in India has increased, and the domestic cotton situation has also changed. The acquisition price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang has risen [8]. - Trading strategy: Buy at low prices, with a strategy in the range of 13400 - 13800 yuan/ton [8]. Eggs - Market performance: The egg futures price rose, and the spot price partially increased [8]. - Fundamentals: The egg price is at a low level, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, but the supply is sufficient, and the egg price is expected to be at a low level [8]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate [8]. Pigs - Market performance: The pig futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price showed a north - south difference [8]. - Fundamentals: The pig slaughter volume will continue to increase, the slaughter profit has emerged, and the pig price is expected to bottom out weakly [8]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate [8]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market performance: The LLDPE main contract rose slightly, the basis weakened, and the overseas price was stable with a slight decline [10]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply pressure has increased but at a slower pace, and the demand in the downstream agricultural film season has improved [10]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, it will oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices or take a reverse spread [10]. PVC - Market performance: V01 closed at 4711, down 0.3% [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply has increased, the demand is weak, the social inventory is at a high level, and the export has variables [10]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to short [10]. PTA - Market performance: The PX CFR China price is $713/ton, and the PTA East China spot price is 4430 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The PX supply is high, the PTA short - term production is affected by maintenance, and the polyester demand has improved [10]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to go long on PX and short the processing fee of PTA at high prices [10]. Rubber - Market performance: RU2601 closed at 15245 yuan/ton, up 0.86% [10]. - Fundamentals: The raw material price has strong support, the inventory is decreasing, and the tire production capacity utilization rate has increased [10]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to oscillate with strong support at the bottom [10]. Glass - Market performance: FG01 closed at 1092, down 0.6% [10]. - Fundamentals: The glass price has fallen, the inventory has accumulated, the supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak [10][11]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. PP - Market performance: The PP main contract rebounded slightly, the basis weakened, the overseas price was stable with a slight decline, and the export window opened [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season but has been over - consumed [11]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, it will oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices or take a reverse spread [11]. MEG - Market performance: The MEG East China spot price is 4177 yuan/ton, and the basis is 88 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply has decreased, the inventory is at a low level, and the polyester demand has improved [11]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the long - term [11]. Crude Oil - Market performance: Oil prices rebounded sharply for two consecutive days due to geopolitical factors [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand in Q4 may be weaker than the season [11]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the reduction of Russian oil exports [11]. Styrene - Market performance: The EB main contract rebounded slightly, the overseas price was stable with a slight decline, and the import window was closed [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply and demand contradictions of pure benzene and styrene are still large, and the demand has been over - consumed [11]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, it will oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices or take a reverse spread [11][12]. Soda Ash - Market performance: SA01 closed at 1228, unchanged [12]. - Fundamentals: The supply and demand of soda ash are balanced, the inventory has a small accumulation, and the downstream demand has some changes [12]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see [12].

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of the performance of the Nanhua Commodity Index on October 21, 2025, including the changes in various sector and theme indices, as well as the performance of individual commodity futures [1][3]. Index Performance Overall Index - The Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.41% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1]. Sector Indices - All sector indices except the Nanhua Black Index rose. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest increase of 1.68%, while the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest increase of 0.02%. The Nanhua Black Index fell 0.24% [1]. Theme Indices - Among the theme indices, the Petrochemical Index had the largest increase of 0.52%, and the Economic Crops Index had the smallest increase of 0.2%. The Black Raw Materials Index had the largest decline of 0.48%, and the Building Materials Index had the smallest decline of 0.04% [1]. Single - Commodity Indices - The Gold single - commodity index had the largest increase of 2.45% [1]. Performance of Specific Commodities Agricultural Products - In the agricultural products sector, palm oil fell 0.26%, rapeseed oil fell 0.54%, rapeseed fell 0.73%, rapeseed meal fell 1.23%, while live pigs rose 0.66% and corn rose 0.28% [8]. Energy and Chemicals - In the energy and chemicals sector, coal rose 0.43%, polyethylene rose 0.09%, and asphalt fell 0.12% [6][11].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -0.59% today. Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose by 2.85%, while the rest of the sectors declined. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest decline of -1.75%, and the Nanhua Black Index had the smallest decline of -0.23%. Among the theme indices, only the Economic Crops Index rose by 0.48%, and the rest of the theme indices declined. The Energy Index had the largest decline of -1.87%, and the Black Raw Materials Index had the smallest decline of -0.19%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Gold index had the largest increase of 3.45%, and the Glass index had the largest decline of -4.53% [1][3] 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Index - The Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 2521.90 today, down 14.87 points or -0.59% from yesterday, with an annualized return of -2.13%, an annualized volatility of 12.01%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.18. - The Nanhua Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) closed at 1633.24, up 45.20 points or 2.85%, with an annualized return of 62.62%, an annualized volatility of 17.28%, and a Sharpe ratio of 3.62. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index (NHII) closed at 3466.89, down 42.15 points or -1.20%, with an annualized return of -11.62%, an annualized volatility of 14.31%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.81. - The Nanhua Metals Index (NHMI) closed at 6349.75, down 20.11 points or -0.32%, with an annualized return of -3.03%, an annualized volatility of 12.68%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.24. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) closed at 1549.68, down 27.55 points or -1.75%, with an annualized return of -18.55%, an annualized volatility of 16.95%, and a Sharpe ratio of -1.09. - The Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index (NHNF) closed at 1715.43, down 5.25 points or -0.31%, with an annualized return of 0.91%, an annualized volatility of 12.72%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.07. - The Nanhua Black Index (NHFI) closed at 2486.47, down 5.85 points or -0.23%, with an annualized return of -12.51%, an annualized volatility of 17.70%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.71. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) closed at 1044.65, down 6.97 points or -0.66%, with an annualized return of -2.40%, an annualized volatility of 8.78%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.27. - The Nanhua Composite Mini Index (NHCIMi) closed at 1169.02, down 5.46 points or -0.46%, with an annualized return of -0.66%, an annualized volatility of 10.88%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.06. - The Nanhua Energy Index (NHEI) closed at 980.68, down 18.67 points or -1.87%, with an annualized return of -4.50%, an annualized volatility of 18.38%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.24. - The Nanhua Petrochemical Index (NHPCI) closed at 878.89, down 11.13 points or -1.25%, with an annualized return of -3.44%, an annualized volatility of 8.96%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.38. - The Nanhua Coal - based Chemical Index (NHCCI) closed at 953.00, down 11.90 points or -1.23%, with an annualized return of -4.21%, an annualized volatility of 8.70%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.48. - The Nanhua Black Raw Materials Index (NHFM) closed at 1048.30, down 1.95 points or -0.19%, with an annualized return of -0.89%, an annualized volatility of 17.29%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.05. - The Nanhua Building Materials Index (NHBMI) closed at 704.05, down 7.69 points or -1.08%, with an annualized return of -3.99%, an annualized volatility of 12.11%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.33. - The Nanhua Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOl) closed at 1234.71, down 8.09 points or -0.65%, with an annualized return of -0.56%, an annualized volatility of 12.98%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.04. - The Nanhua Economic Crops Index (NHAECI) closed at 895.08, up 4.28 points or 0.48%, with an annualized return of 0.24%, an annualized volatility of 6.87%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.04 [3] Some Single - Variety Indexes - In the agricultural products sector, rapeseed had a 0.00% change, rapeseed meal fell -2.45%, and live pigs fell -1.97%. - In the energy and chemical sector, glass fell -4.53%, synthetic ammonia fell -0.13%, methanol fell -2.03%, styrene fell -1.75%, LPG fell -1.33%, and PTA fell -1.21% [7][11]