Group 1 - The core concern among fund managers has shifted from "trade war causing global recession" to "second wave of inflation" as the biggest tail risk, with 26% of managers identifying it as such, a slight decrease from August [1] - 24% of fund managers view the loss of Federal Reserve independence and dollar depreciation as the largest tail risk, while 22% cite disorderly rise in bond yields [1] - Only 12% of fund managers consider "trade war causing global recession" as the biggest risk, significantly down from 29% in August [1] Group 2 - The survey indicates that "long on the tech giants" remains the most crowded trade, with 42% of fund managers holding this view, slightly down from 45% in August [3] - Other popular trades include long on gold (25%), short on the dollar (14%), and long on cryptocurrencies (9%) [3] - The survey was conducted from September 5 to 11, involving 165 fund managers managing a total of $426 billion in assets [3] Group 3 - Recent economic indicators show signs of rising inflation in the U.S., prompting some economists to advise the Federal Reserve to avoid significant rate cuts [4] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-over-month in August, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%, with a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points from July [4] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve began a two-day meeting on September 16, with widespread expectations for a rate cut of 25 basis points, marking the first cut in nine months [5] - Investors are particularly focused on the Fed's future policy path, with the upcoming dot plot and comments from Powell expected to provide further insights [5]

Group 1 - Bank of America warns that professional fund managers may be overly confident about the sustainability of the current stock market rally [1] - The monthly fund manager survey indicates that professional investors are increasingly putting cash into the market, with cash levels dropping to 3.9%, the lowest in over a decade [1] - There is a record rise in risk appetite and optimism regarding corporate earnings, with sentiment at its highest since February 2025 [1] Group 2 - The survey shows a net increase of 14% in fund managers' holdings of technology stocks, up from a net decrease of 1% the previous month [2] - Despite the recovery in tech stocks, long-term enthusiasm for the sector remains below average, with valuation concerns being the top worry among fund managers [2] - The dollar index has fallen nearly 10% this year, and fund managers view dollar short positions as the most crowded trade in the market [2] Group 3 - Fund managers are optimistic about technology stocks due to artificial intelligence but are bearish on the dollar due to U.S. trade and fiscal policies [3] - There is a significant increase in interest in the euro, with a net 20% of respondents increasing their euro holdings, the highest since January 2005 [3] - The survey was conducted from July 3 to July 10, with 211 participants managing a total of $504 billion in assets [3]