1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main logic of the current market is the impact of Trump's tariff hikes, leading to a general decline in risk - asset prices, a slump in the US stock market, and potential impacts on other countries' stock markets. The addition of tariffs may increase global trade barriers and adjust the global trade pattern, while also increasing corporate production costs and reducing residents' consumption capacity [5]. - During the holiday, metals with strong macro - attributes such as silver, copper, and nickel experienced significant declines due to Trump's unexpected tariff hikes and investors' pessimistic sentiment. The market pessimistically expects a decrease in the US trade deficit, a decline in risk - asset prices, a shrinkage of social wealth, a drop in consumption, and a significant decline in corporate profits, forming a negative feedback loop between price drops and consumption declines. The US tariff hikes on Southeast Asia and China will weaken the previous consumption expectations for copper, and the global copper consumption growth rate may be adjusted downward [5]. - There is still an expectation of a decline in copper supply outside the US, which may limit the downside space of prices. There is still a large price difference between COMEX and LME copper, and Trump did not impose tariffs on copper this time, which can drive the transport of copper available for COMEX delivery from non - US regions to the US. Currently, the spot TC of copper concentrate has dropped to - 26.4 dollars per ton, and the losses of smelters are expanding, increasing the expectation of long - term production cuts or shutdowns by smelting enterprises [5]. - In terms of trading strategies, the external market has shown a significant decline, and it is expected that the domestic Shanghai copper will open significantly lower on Monday, which will bring huge profits to downstream enterprises. It is recommended that enterprises that really need to replenish raw material inventories can appropriately buy at low prices [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Transaction End - **Volatility**: The volatility of copper in four markets has increased, with a larger increase in the external market. The volatility of COMEX copper has risen from 19.24% on March 28 to the current 30.80% [11]. - **Term Spread**: The term structure of Shanghai copper has flattened, with the spread between Shanghai copper 04 - 05 rising from - 10 yuan per ton to 20 yuan per ton. The spot discount of LME copper has expanded, and the C - structure of COMEX copper has narrowed [21]. - **Position**: The positions of Shanghai copper, international copper, LME, and COMEX copper have all decreased. The position of Shanghai copper has declined at an accelerating rate, the positions of international copper and LME copper have decreased, and the position of COMEX copper has marginally declined [22]. - **Fund and Industry Position**: The net long position of non - commercial traders in CFTC has decreased. The net short position of commercial traders in LME has decreased from 91,700 lots on March 21 to 84,600 lots, and the net long position of non - commercial traders in CFTC has decreased from 34,100 lots on March 25 to 30,025 lots on April 1 [28]. - **Spot Premium**: The domestic copper spot premium has expanded, the Yangshan Port copper premium has declined but remains at a high level in the same period of history, the US copper premium has remained at a high level, and the Rotterdam copper premium and Southeast Asian copper premium have increased [32]. - **Inventory**: The global total copper inventory has remained stable, the domestic social total inventory has shown a turning point of decline, the bonded - area inventory has continuously increased, the COMEX inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period of history, and the LME copper inventory has continuously declined [37]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai copper 05 contract is at a historical low but higher than that of last year, and the position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has continued to recover but remains at a relatively low historical level [38]. 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: The supply of copper concentrate is tight. In February 2025, China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the port inventory of copper concentrate has continued to decline. The processing fee of copper concentrate has continued to weaken, and the losses of smelters have expanded [42]. - **Recycled Copper**: The supply of recycled copper has increased. In February, the import of recycled copper was 193,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.77%, and the domestic production of recycled copper was 115,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 60.83%. The price difference between refined and recycled copper has weakened, and the import profit of recycled copper has expanded [46][51]. - **Blister Copper**: The supply of blister copper is tight. In February, the import volume was 56,400 tons, at a low level in the same period of history, and the processing fee is at a relatively low historical level [56]. - **Refined Copper**: The production of refined copper has increased more than expected. In March, the production was 1.1221 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.27%, and it is expected that the production in April will be 1.1163 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.32%. The import volume of refined copper has increased, but the current import is in a large loss state, which is expected to affect subsequent imports [62]. 3.3 Demand End - **开工率**: The operating rates of copper product enterprises are differentiated, and the overall situation shows a strengthening trend. In March, the operating rate of copper tubes was at a high level in the same period of history, in February, the operating rate of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a neutral and relatively low level in the same period of history, and the operating rates of copper rods and wires increased marginally in the week of April 3 [65]. - **Profit**: The processing fee of copper rods has recovered but is at a neutral and relatively low level in the same period of history. The processing fee of copper tubes is at a high level in the same period of history but has declined marginally. The processing fee of copper plates and strips has increased slightly, and the processing fee of lithium - ion copper foil has remained stable [71]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has continued to be at a low level. In February, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level in the same period of history, and in March, the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level in the same period of history [72]. - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rods is relatively high, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has decreased. In February, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a low level in the same period of history [75]. 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: The actual consumption of domestic copper is good. From January to March, the cumulative consumption was 3.5827 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.34%, and the apparent consumption was 3.8334 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.40%. Grid investment, home appliances, and new - energy enterprises are important supports for copper consumption, and the grid investment growth rate has accelerated [80][81]. - **Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production**: In February, the domestic air - conditioner production was 16.785 million units, a year - on - year increase of 42.92%, and the domestic new - energy vehicle production was 888,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 91.38% [83].