在汇率与利率双重波动的影响下，无论是配置美元资产，还是持有人民币债券理财，收益的不确定性均 有所上升。业内人士表示，这背后是全球货币政策转向与中国经济基本面修复共振的结果，意味着投资 者必须告别"绝对无风险"的旧有观念，重新学习在波动中寻找平衡。 境内外理财同时承压 这种变化，并非停留在宏观层面，而是已经传导至普通投资者的实际收益中。 年初，张华（化名）决定把一部分积蓄换成美元。他用约7.3万元人民币买入1万美元的美元理财产品， 希望在美债高利率环境下获取相对稳健的利息收益。几个月下来，这笔理财的累计收益率为2.53%，美 元资产增加到10253美元，账面表现并不差。 然而，汇率变化很快改变了最终结果。随着人民币持续走强，按最新汇率折算，这笔美元资产约合7.22 万元人民币，较买入时反而减少近800元。"利息赚到了，汇率变化却把收益吃掉了。"张华无奈地说。 这一经历，直观体现了汇率波动对外币理财收益的影响。在人民币升值背景下，即便美元资产本身获得 不错的利息收益，折算回人民币后，仍可能出现"赚息不赚钱"的情况。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 徐潇潇 张欣然）随着人民币汇率持续走强、债 ...

| < W | | | 美元兑离岸人民币 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | USDCNH.FX | | | | | | | 7.03877 | | 前收 | 7.04341 | 开盘 | 7.04351 | | -0.00464 -0.07% | | 卖出 | 7.03886 | 买入 | 7.03869 | | 最高 | 7.04640 | 今年来 | -4.07% | 20日 | -0.98% | | 最低 | 7.03710 | 10日 | -0.47% | 60日 | -1.08% | | 分时 | FF | 日K | 周Ｋ | 月K | 更多 | | 叠加 7.04970 | | | | | 0.0 | | | | | | | 0.00% | | 7.03710 17:00 5:00 | 23:00 | | | 11:00 | -0.09% 16:59 | 在岸市场上，人民币对美元即期汇率盘中最高升至7.0417，创下2024年10月以来新高。 | < W | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- ...

RMB: The debate for 2026 | GS EM Marketstrats ⼈⺠币：2026 年⾛势之争 | ⾼盛新兴市场策略 Given recent RMB appreciation to 7.05 area, there is rising debate on RMB outlook in 2026, and market is split: 1) Some think CNH appreciation will accelerate, on further US-China rate differential narrowing, China's large CA surplus + cheap REER, as well as eased trade uncertainty. 2) Some think RMB will continue this year's appreciation speed, which is not much faster than carry. 3) Others think CNH can serve as funder given weak dome ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report Macro - In the short - term, the profit growth rate of large - scale industrial enterprises will face great pressure and likely maintain a weak and volatile pattern. In the long - term, the profit of industrial enterprises is expected to enter a recovery channel in 2025. The RMB is likely to continue a stable and relatively strong trend in the short - term, with a slower appreciation speed and more obvious two - way fluctuations. In the long - term, it is expected to start a gentle appreciation channel [1][3][4] Stock Index - Overseas market fluctuations may disturb the A - share market, but the impact is limited. In the short - term, it is expected to be mainly volatile [4][5] Treasury Bonds - The central bank's bond - buying scale should be focused on. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can be gradually closed for profit [6] Container Shipping to Europe - The supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the short - term price fluctuation is intensified [6][8] Commodities Precious Metals - In the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will boost the price of precious metals. In the short - term, silver has set a new high, and platinum and palladium mainly follow the trend of gold and silver [10][14] Copper - If there is no new contradiction in the short - term, the futures price will maintain a high - level shock after the breakthrough [17] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum shows a strong and volatile trend, alumina is in a weak operation, and cast aluminum alloy is strong and volatile [18][19] Zinc - It shows a strong and volatile trend [19] Nickel and Stainless Steel - They are strong in the short - term, but the upward momentum of stainless steel is limited [20][21] Tin - It is not recommended to short in the short - term, and the strategy of entering the market on dips is maintained [22] Lithium Carbonate - There may be a short - term correction, but there are opportunities to go long on dips in the medium - to - long - term [24] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is in a volatile state, and polysilicon is expected to have an enlarged fluctuation range [26] Lead - There is support below, and it is expected to fluctuate between 16900 - 17300 [27] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The profit is improving, and they are in a strong and volatile trend [29][30] Iron Ore - The price will maintain a high - level shock, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices [33][34] Coking Coal and Coke - The macro - sentiment is improving. Coking coal prices are under short - term pressure, and coke may face inventory accumulation pressure [35][36] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - They are in a weak and volatile trend [38] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - In the short - term, it is in a volatile pattern, and in the long - term, it is in a downward trend [40] LPG - It is in a volatile state [41][43] PTA - PX - The speculation on blending for oil has cooled down, and it is recommended to go long on dips [44][47] MEG - Bottle Chips - The downward driving force is weakening, and it is recommended to sell call options [49][50] PP - The cost support is strong, and the fundamental situation is expected to improve marginally [52][53] PE - The upward space is limited due to insufficient self - driving force [54][56] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [58] Fuel Oil - The cracking is weak, and the high - sulfur cracking is still bearish in the short - term [59] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The cracking is weakening, and it may rebound after the Dar Blend discount stabilizes [60] Asphalt - The bottom space is limited, and the winter storage policy should be focused on [61][62] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The weather speculation sentiment has subsided, and it is recommended to wait and see [63] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro - **Market Information**: China's November Manufacturing PMI was 49.9, with the new export order growing at the fastest rate in 8 months. The US November ISM Manufacturing PMI shrank at the largest rate in four months. Japan's central bank governor hinted at a December interest - rate hike [1] - **Core Logic**: Domestically, the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased year - on - year in October. In the short - term, the profit growth rate will face pressure, and in the long - term, it is expected to recover. Overseas, the US dollar index is expected to be volatile at a high level [1] RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted up [2] - **Important Information**: The US November ISM Manufacturing PMI declined, and the Japanese central bank governor signaled a possible interest - rate hike [2] Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index closed up, and the trading volume in the two markets increased. The futures index showed different volume changes [4] - **Important Information**: The US November ISM Manufacturing PMI shrank, and the Japanese central bank governor hinted at a December interest - rate hike [4][5] - **Core Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the easing of geopolitical risks strengthen the support for the stock index. The hawkish remarks of the Japanese central bank may affect the A - share market [5] Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The bond futures rebounded on Monday, and the funds were loose [5] - **Important Information**: The Japanese central bank governor said to evaluate the pros and cons of raising interest rates [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The signal of the Japanese central bank's interest - rate hike may affect the A - share market and increase the rebound power of the bond market. Attention should be paid to the central bank's bond - buying data [6] Container Shipping to Europe - **Market Review**: The futures market of container shipping to Europe strengthened, and the SCFIS declined after the market closed [7][8] - **Information Sorting**: Positive factors include the expectation of China - EU trade cooperation and the warming of the shipping sector. Negative factors include the loose supply - demand pattern, the expectation of Red Sea shipping resumption, and macro - risks [8] Commodities Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Silver set a new high, and gold and platinum fluctuated after rising [10] - **Interest - Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings**: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is stable, and the holdings of some ETFs have changed [12] - **This Week's Focus**: Pay attention to the US data and the speeches of Fed officials [13] Copper - **Market Review**: The prices of copper futures in different markets showed different trends, and the basis and cross - border ratio changed [15] - **Industry Information**: The copper inventory decreased, and the CSPT planned to reduce the copper ore production capacity in 2026 [15][16][17] Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Review**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends [17] - **Core Logic**: Aluminum is affected by macro - sentiment and copper and silver. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of aluminum [18] Zinc - **Market Review**: The price of zinc futures was strong [19] - **Industry Performance**: A zinc - lead mine project in a certain country is expected to start production [19] - **Core Logic**: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the smelting end has a willingness to reduce production due to raw material problems. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory situation is different at home and abroad [19][20] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The price of nickel futures rose, and that of stainless steel futures fell [20] - **Industry Performance**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel in the spot market changed, and the inventory situation was reported [20] - **Market Analysis**: They are affected by copper, and the prices of nickel ore are stable. Nickel iron has a tendency to reduce production, and the upward momentum of stainless steel is limited [21] Tin - **Market Review**: The price of tin futures was blocked from rising [22] - **Core Logic**: The supply - side raw material problem is difficult to solve, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is not recommended to short in the short - term [22] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The price of lithium carbonate futures rose, and the trading volume decreased while the open interest increased [22] - **Industry Performance**: The spot market sentiment of the lithium - battery industry chain was weak, and the prices of some products changed [23] - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand game in the lithium carbonate market will intensify, and there may be a short - term correction [24] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures changed, and the trading volume and open interest showed different trends [25] - **Industry Performance**: The spot market sentiment of the industrial silicon and photovoltaic industries was general, and the prices of some products changed [25][26] - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak pattern, and polysilicon will have greater fluctuations [26] Lead - **Market Review**: The price of lead futures fluctuated narrowly [27] - **Industry Performance**: A new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented in 2025 [27] - **Core Logic**: The raw material problem of primary lead has not been solved, and the production willingness of recycled lead has decreased. The import window is open, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16900 - 17300 [27] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Review**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were strong and volatile [29] - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand balance is improving marginally, the profit is improving, and the risk of negative feedback is increasing. The price is expected to be strong and volatile [30][31] Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased, and the arrival volume in China changed [32][33] - **Core Logic**: The short - term fundamentals have improved, the demand is supported, the valuation is repaired, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level [33][34] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Review**: They were in a strong and volatile trend [35] - **Information Sorting**: The purchase price of coke by some steel mills was lowered, and there were environmental protection problems in some regions [35] - **Core Logic**: The supply of coking coal has limited marginal changes and is in a slight surplus. The supply of coke is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the price - cut rhythm of steel mills [36] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Review**: They rebounded slightly, driven by coking coal and finished products [37] - **Core Logic**: The demand is expected to decline, the inventory is high, the production profit is declining, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [38] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Dynamics**: The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil rose. There were attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, and Chevron signed an exploration agreement [39] - **Core Logic**: The supply concern has increased, and the price is in a volatile pattern. In the long - term, the supply surplus pressure remains, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ policies and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [40] LPG - **Market Dynamics**: The prices of LPG futures and related benchmarks changed [42] - **Spot Feedback**: The average prices in different regions changed [42] - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased slightly, the demand changed little, and the inventory decreased [42][43] PTA - PX - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX decreased, and the supply of PTA had some changes. The demand of polyester was expected to be high, and the processing fee of PTA was repaired [44][45][46] - **Core Logic**: The speculation on blending for oil has cooled down, and the PTA - PX supply - demand structure is relatively good. Attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans and the actual situation of blending for oil [46][47] MEG - Bottle Chips - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports increased [48] - **Device**: Some devices were restarted and some were shut down [48] - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, the profit of each route was repaired, and the inventory was expected to increase. The demand of polyester was expected to be high [48][49] - **Core Logic**: The downward driving force of ethylene glycol is weakening, and the inventory accumulation expectation in December is revised to a tight balance. In the long - term, the cost support will weaken, and the short - term strategy is to sell call options [49][50] PP - **Market Dynamics**: The price of PP futures decreased slightly [51] - **Spot Feedback**: The spot prices in different regions were reported [51] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory decreased [52] - **Core Logic**: The cost support is strong, the fundamental situation is expected to improve marginally, and attention should be paid to the PDH device status and the basis change [53] PE - **Market Dynamics**: The price of PE futures increased slightly [54] - **Spot Feedback**: The spot prices in different regions were reported [54] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory decreased [54][55][56] - **Core Logic**: The self - driving force is insufficient, the supply - demand pressure is large, and the price is expected to continue to be volatile after the rebound. Attention should be paid to the spot and the basis [56] Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Market Review**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased [57] - **Spot Feedback**: The spot prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene changed [57] - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory of pure benzene increased, and that of styrene in some places decreased and in some places increased [57] - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [58] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: The price of fuel oil futures was reported [59] - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand of fuel oil in different regions changed in November, and the inventory situation was reported [59] - **Core Logic**: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil increased in November, the demand for power generation was weak, and the high - sulfur cracking is still bearish in the short - term [59] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures was reported [60] - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand of low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions changed in November, and the inventory situation was reported [60] - **Core Logic**: The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil was affected by some factors in November, the cracking was compressed, and it may rebound after the Dar Blend discount stabilizes [60] Asphalt - **Market Review**: The price of asphalt futures was reported [61] - **Spot Performance**: The average price of asphalt in the domestic market decreased, and the prices in different regions changed [61] - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, the demand increased, and the inventory decreased [61] - **Core Logic**: The spot and futures prices were stable near the integer mark, and the winter storage may face the problem of insufficient volume. After the winter storage policy is introduced, it may be the valuation anchor for BU01. In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly volatile [62] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Related Information**: China's November PMI data, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the rubber inventory situation were reported [64]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) has been significant, with both onshore and offshore rates surpassing the 7.08 mark, marking a year-high and reflecting a positive sentiment in the asset market [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Contributing to RMB Appreciation - The appreciation is supported by external factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which have led to a 50 basis point reduction this year and a more than 10% decline in the US dollar index, the largest drop for the first half of the year since 1973 [3][4]. - Domestic economic fundamentals are also strong, with resilient exports and a recovering A-share market. The securities transaction stamp duty has increased by 88.1% year-on-year in the first ten months, indicating enhanced market vitality [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies for Long-term Investors - Investors should focus on the revaluation opportunities of RMB assets, as the stable exchange rate enhances the attractiveness of these assets, potentially leading to continued foreign capital inflow and A-share value revaluation [5]. - Sectors benefiting from exchange rate fluctuations, such as airlines and paper manufacturing, which have significant dollar liabilities, may experience alleviated cost pressures [5]. - It is advisable for enterprises and individuals with USD needs to strategically arrange their funds during this relatively stable exchange rate period [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical divergence between export prices and PPI, concluding that they will eventually synchronize, with the driving factors being external demand and exchange rate fluctuations. If external demand continues to rise, PPI will align with export prices; otherwise, export prices may lack sustained upward momentum and revert to PPI levels [2][66]. Summary by Sections Common Factors Driving Export Price Recovery - There have been four historical cycles of divergence between export prices and PPI, with most instances showing export prices converging towards PPI, except for one cycle where PPI aligned with export prices [4][19]. - The divergence is influenced by four potential factors: demand, supply, pricing settlement, and domestic factors [5][22]. Unique Factors in the Current Cycle - The current cycle is significantly impacted by tariff adjustments, leading to structural changes in China's export patterns, both in terms of regions and product types [12][43]. - Exports to low-price regions have significantly decreased, particularly to the U.S., while exports to high-price regions have increased [13][45]. - The share of high-priced goods in exports has risen, with the equipment manufacturing sector seeing a notable increase in export share [14][50]. Conclusion: Who Leads, Export Prices or PPI? - The article concludes that the synchronization of export prices and PPI depends on sustained external demand. Current conditions show some recovery in external demand, but the future trajectory remains uncertain [65][66].

Group 1: Historical Context - There have been five notable periods of divergence between export price growth and PPI, with four historical cycles analyzed[5] - In three of the four historical cycles, export prices converged downwards towards PPI, while only in the first cycle did PPI align upwards with export prices[5][15] - The first cycle (March 2006 - July 2006) was characterized by strong external demand, unlike the subsequent cycles where global export growth declined[20] Group 2: Current Economic Indicators - Current external demand shows improvement, with global goods export growth entering an upward trend since mid-2023[20] - China's export growth has stabilized in the current cycle, resembling the first cycle, while previous cycles experienced declining export growth[21][22] - The RMB has depreciated against the USD, but the extent of depreciation is smaller compared to cycles 2-4, with a recent trend of appreciation since July[25] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic supply-demand dynamics are crucial for PPI, with current indicators showing a supply-demand gap similar to cycles 2-4, indicating weaker demand compared to cycle 1[34][40] - The manufacturing PMI and new orders-production index differences suggest a more pronounced supply-demand imbalance in the current cycle[34][35] Group 4: Unique Factors in Current Cycle - Tariff impacts have led to significant structural adjustments in China's export regions and product types, with a notable decline in exports to low-price regions, particularly the U.S.[43][46] - The share of high-priced goods in China's exports has increased, with the share of equipment manufacturing products rising to 59.2% in the first eight months of 2025, the second highest since 2001[50][56]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has quietly lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the first interest rate cut since December 2024, driven by persistent weakness in U.S. employment data and a focus on maximizing employment over price stability [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Global Financial Markets - The Fed's rate cut is interpreted as a "preventive rate cut," indicating a cautious outlook on future economic growth [3]. - The decision is expected to influence global capital flows and the value of the Chinese yuan, potentially leading to reduced depreciation pressure on the yuan and affecting the attractiveness of dollar-denominated Chinese assets [5][13]. - Historical data shows that adjustments in China's Loan Prime Rate (LPR) typically lag behind Fed policy changes by 3-6 months, although recent actions have demonstrated the People's Bank of China's flexibility in responding to global monetary policy shifts [5][7]. Group 2: Differences in Mortgage Systems - The U.S. mortgage market primarily features 30-year fixed-rate loans, meaning the Fed's rate cut will directly benefit new homebuyers by locking in lower monthly payments [6]. - In contrast, China's housing credit system relies on floating rates based on LPR, which means existing mortgage rates will not be immediately affected by the Fed's actions and will only adjust at the beginning of the following year [6][12]. Group 3: Potential Effects on Chinese Housing Market - The anticipated reduction in LPR could significantly lower mortgage costs, thereby boosting market confidence and stimulating housing demand [13][15]. - A specific example illustrates that a 25 basis point reduction in LPR could save a borrower approximately 9 million yuan in interest over 30 years, highlighting the importance of such adjustments for household financial planning [16][20]. Group 4: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - There is a growing expectation for a downward adjustment in LPR, driven by recent policy signals indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [14][15]. - The upcoming LPR announcement on September 22 is highly anticipated, with predictions that some cities may see first-time home loan rates drop below 3% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy suggestion is bullish with oscillations [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The continuous deterioration of the US employment situation has increased market expectations for the number and amplitude of consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. However, due to the relatively strong US dollar index, the increase in precious metals has been limited [2][27] - The increase in the expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has led to a re - evaluation of the US dollar's competitiveness in the market. Although the US dollar index has been relatively strong recently, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has been limited, and the short - term fluctuations caused by the exchange rate have had limited impact on precious metals [3] - As the expectation of a September interest rate cut strengthens, high - risk - appetite assets such as US stocks, copper, and crude oil may further strengthen, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited due to production increase pressure [20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The significant decline in US non - farm and employment data has increased market concerns about the US economic downturn. Currently, the market is trading on the amplitude and consecutive number of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Gold prices have been boosted by risk - aversion sentiment. Subsequently, gold and silver may rise simultaneously under the impetus of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectation, but may decline significantly after the interest rate cut is implemented. The upward trend of silver also needs to pay attention to the short - term fluctuations of gold [9] 3.2 Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The US Senate plans to hold a full - scale vote on Trump's nomination of Stephen Milan as a Federal Reserve governor on the evening of the 15th. If the nomination is approved, he will enter the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee and participate in subsequent interest rate decision - making votes [12] - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in September was 55.4, the lowest since May, with an expected value of 58. The preliminary value of the 5 - year inflation expectation rose for two consecutive months to 3.9% [12] - The global central bank reserve pattern is about to undergo a milestone change. The proportion of gold in the reserves of global central banks (excluding the Federal Reserve) has exceeded US Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996 [14] - In August, the US CPI was in line with expectations year - on - year, slightly higher than expected month - on - month. The core CPI was in line with expectations and the previous value both year - on - year and month - on - month. The number of initial jobless claims last week reached the highest level since October 2021 [14] - The annualized revised value of the US real GDP in the second quarter increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than the expected value and the initial value. The annualized revised value of the core PCE price index increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected value [14] - The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined in August, providing new support for the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates next week [15] 3.3 Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.3.1 US Economy and Policy - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in September was at a five - month low, and the 5 - year inflation expectation rose for two consecutive months. The ISM manufacturing index in August was slightly higher than that in July but lower than expected, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of this year, while the output index fell back into the contraction range. The current US economic data shows increasing downward pressure on the US economy [16] 3.3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Spain to hold talks with the US from September 14th to 17th to discuss issues such as US unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and TikTok. Trump has made a series of statements on sanctions against Russia, pressuring Europe to impose economic pressure on China, and imposing tariffs on semiconductor companies that do not transfer production to the US. After the successful completion of China's September 3rd military parade, the US has continued to release negative signals, intensifying geopolitical tensions [19] 3.3.3 Other Financial Markets - The US non - farm employment growth in August was far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate reached a new high since 2021. The US economic downward pressure has increased, indicating the necessity of interest rate cuts. The US service industry PMI in July reached a new high since December 2024. Crude oil is still greatly affected by production cuts, and there are differences in the trends of domestic and foreign copper prices. As the expectation of a September interest rate cut strengthens, high - risk - appetite assets may further strengthen, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited [20] 3.3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate still passively tracks the US dollar index. With the increasing expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the expectation of a decline in the US dollar index has increased, but the US dollar has shown good resilience. The offshore RMB exchange rate has continued to appreciate, but the appreciation range is limited. The RMB exchange rate is not a key consideration factor as its impact on gold is limited [24] 3.4 Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Due to the continuous deterioration of the US employment situation, market expectations for the number and amplitude of consecutive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year have increased. However, due to the relatively strong US dollar index, the increase in precious metals has been limited [27]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut has increased due to signs of slowing U.S. economic data, including weaker job market resilience and declining consumer data, leading the market to bet on a potential rate cut in Q4 2025 [3][4] - A rate cut could lead to a significant adjustment in global capital flows, potentially allowing some overseas funds to return to the Chinese market, alleviating liquidity pressure on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [4] Group 2: Renminbi Exchange Rate Fluctuations - The Renminbi has faced short-term pressure against the U.S. dollar, influenced by two main factors: narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the U.S., and improving export data due to recovering demand from Southeast Asia and Europe [5] - While short-term fluctuations are expected, the Renminbi is anticipated to maintain long-term resilience, suggesting that individuals with plans for studying abroad, purchasing property, or cross-border investments should consider locking in exchange rates to mitigate uncertainty [5] Group 3: Technology Sector Recovery - The technology sector is experiencing a "moderate recovery," with notable improvements in U.S. AI and semiconductor stocks, as well as in China's new energy and computing sectors [8] - Investors are advised to view the technology sector as a key focus for the next 3-5 years, emphasizing the importance of diversified investment strategies to manage risks [9] Group 4: China's Macro Policy Adjustments - The keyword for China's domestic policy in the latter half of the year is "stabilizing growth," with indications of continued loose monetary policy and increased fiscal support for infrastructure projects [9] Group 5: Investment Strategies - In the current complex environment, investors are encouraged to diversify their portfolios across various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, gold, and overseas assets [10] - Maintaining liquidity is crucial, allowing investors to respond to market fluctuations effectively [10] - Long-term trends in sectors such as technology, green energy, and healthcare should be prioritized, avoiding hasty decisions based on short-term volatility [10] - Caution against excessive leverage is advised until the interest rate environment becomes clearer [10]