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【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】牛市启动的尝试
申万宏源研究· 2025-06-29 04:09
Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the market is experiencing a short-term upward breakthrough due to several factors, including the stabilization of capital market expectations and the influx of long-term funds, particularly from insurance companies [1][2] - The recent geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a recovery in global risk appetite, alongside expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which has contributed to the market's positive momentum [2][5] - The index's breakthrough has directly boosted risk appetite, resulting in increased trading activity, particularly in small-cap stocks and technology growth sectors [2][8] Group 2 - The article suggests that multiple positive factors are expected to converge between 2026 and 2027, potentially marking a core bull market phase, although the current market still shows signs of weakness [5][6] - The overall economic outlook remains weak, with concerns about macroeconomic support and limited structural improvements, indicating that the market is not yet ready for a bull market [6][8] - The short-term market may still experience speculative index rallies, but significant upward trends are anticipated to begin in late 2025 [8] Group 3 - The article identifies specific sectors with high elasticity for investment opportunities, including stablecoins, national defense, and military industries, as well as the overseas AI computing power industry [8] - High-dividend assets are expected to undergo a revaluation in the medium term, with a focus on banking stocks, which may face adjustment pressure due to excessive short-term attention [8] - The article maintains a structural bullish outlook for A-shares, emphasizing the reliance on breakthroughs in technology industries and highlighting three asset categories closely related to China's strategic opportunities: gold, rare earths, and national defense [8]
创金合信基金董梁:指数增强基金获更多关注 看好恒生科技、红利、科创板综合指数的布局机会
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-06-23 07:26
Wind数据显示,截至6月20日,今年以来新成立的指数增强基金数量达76只,超过去年全年。更早些时 候,蚂蚁基金等头部基金销售平台宣布发力布局指数增强基金。创金合信基金首席量化投资官、创金合 信沪深300指数增强基金经理董梁表示,指数化投资正逐步成为投资的主流,指数增强产品凭借其较好 的业绩表现和风险控制,获得了更多的认可。 头部平台要求指数增强基金的管理团队具有丰富的管理经验,投资能力可验证;对于具体的指数增强产 品,平台内部有多项评估标准,包括具有持续稳定的超额收益,月度胜率达标,策略迭代方向清晰等。 1、今年以来公募基金布局指数增强基金数量同比大增,为什么? 创金合信基金首席量化投资官、创金合信沪深300指数增强基金经理董梁:今年公募基金积极布局指数 增强,可能有三个原因。一是经历了2021年的公募主动权益基金的火热发行和后续两年的低迷表现,基 金投资人对明星基金经理显著祛魅,不再盲目追逐。而指数增强产品凭借其过去三年较好的业绩表现和 风险控制,获得了更多的认可。二是指数公司近期推出了若干有吸引力的指数,如中证A500指数、自 由现金流指数、科创板综指等。三是监管层对于指数化投资也较为鼓励。这些都带动了 ...