策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量深度 2025 年 9 月 26 日 策略深度 这是一轮混合牛 本轮牛市仍有望实现慢牛、长牛，结构上类似 2013-2014 年叠加 2016-2017 年，组成先结构牛、后全面牛的混合牛。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 A 股历史牛市回顾。2001 至 2025 年，A 股历史上典型意义上的牛市共计 六轮，前五轮牛市类型各不相同，有全面牛亦有结构牛，驱动逻辑上估 值扩张是共性要素，但盈利驱动方面并不一致，第一轮和第二轮牛市的 宏观背景是经济及全 A 盈利显著提升，而第三轮牛市背后的宏观经济及 A 股盈利则处于承压状态，第四、五轮牛市更多呈现结构性景气。 从资金视角对比前五轮牛市。从增量资金的入市节奏视角，每一轮牛市 都有显著的增量资金，使得牛市的启动可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of fund managers "dodging the bull market" amidst a strong market rally, highlighting the challenges faced by active equity products in outperforming indices despite a high percentage of positive returns [1][4]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of August 29, 98.48% of active equity products recorded positive returns, yet 68 funds underperformed, indicating a mismatch between fund strategies and market trends [2][4]. - The A-share and Hong Kong markets have shown significant structural characteristics, with sectors like innovative drugs, humanoid robots, and artificial intelligence performing well, while others like coal and retail have lagged [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Funds that did not align their holdings with market hotspots faced severe "missed opportunities," with some managers adhering strictly to their investment themes, such as coal or high-dividend stocks, leading to underperformance [5][6]. - High cash positions during market uptrends can result in underperformance, as seen with several funds maintaining low positions despite rising indices [5][6]. Group 3: Future Opportunities - Analysts suggest that the previously overlooked dividend and consumer sectors may become new focal points for investment as they offer stability amidst market volatility [8][9]. - The "self-pleasing consumption" trend is gaining traction, driven by changing consumer behaviors and preferences, indicating potential growth in related markets [9][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The article notes that as new high-growth stocks emerge, there may be a valuation reassessment, leading to increased market volatility [8][9]. - The current market environment is seen as suitable for dividend stocks, which can provide a safety net for investors amid fluctuations [8][9].

Group 1: Overall Performance - Over 92% of S&P 500 companies have reported their Q2 earnings, marking the best performance since Q3 2021 with a historical level of "earnings surprise frequency" [1] - U.S. companies saw significant revenue and profit growth, with profits increasing by 12% year-over-year, surpassing analysts' July estimate of 5% [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly the "Big Seven" tech giants, has been a major driver of overall performance, with about two-thirds of growth concentrated in communication services and information technology [1] - Meta reported a 22% year-over-year revenue growth driven by AI technology, with net profit increasing by 36% and operating profit margin rising from 38% to 43% [1] - Microsoft also showed strong performance with a 25.62% year-over-year increase in intelligent cloud revenue, indicating that AI investments are beginning to yield financial returns [2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Structural Issues - Despite the earnings exceeding expectations, market reactions have been cautious, with a lower-than-average reward for companies that surpassed expectations and a heavier penalty for those that did not [8] - The top 10 S&P 500 companies contributed nearly all of the profit growth, indicating a structural crisis where the remaining 400 companies are experiencing slow growth [8] - The retail sector is showing signs of weakness, with S&P 500 retail revenues (excluding e-commerce giants) slowing to a 3.2% year-over-year growth, down from 4.5% in Q1 [9] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Economic Outlook - Consumer spending behavior is shifting, with over half of surveyed individuals planning to cut back on spending in the coming months, impacting retail performance [9] - The overall economic and corporate landscape in the U.S. is characterized by a "two-tier" situation, where companies not benefiting from AI spending are struggling to maintain their positions [8]

极目新闻记者 吕少峰 26日，沪指逼近3900点，创业板指涨3%，全市全天成交额3.18万亿，较上个交易日放量5944亿，为历史第二高成交额。 大家纷纷喊，"牛来了！"然而有一些股民却说赚钱效应并不明显，甚至还有人说尚未解套。是什么原因造成实际温度与体感温度存在些许差异呢？我们不 妨通过数据，从三个维度解构一下这种微妙的变化及背后的原因。 一、从资金量来看，"牛市已来"毋庸置疑 俗话说，量在价先。成交量是股市活跃度的直观体现，没有交易量，一切无从谈起。无论是指数，还是个股，每一次闯关，无不伴随着成交量的放大。甚 至可以这样说，成交量是主导行情变化的先决条件。从历史数据来说，A股历史上单日成交额超2万亿元的天数共35天，其中2024年占18天，2025年占12 天，2015年占5天。 | A股成交额超2万亿交易日一览 | | | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 金额(亿元) | | 2024-10-08 | 34. 835. 43 | | 2025-08-25 | 超3月亿 | | 2024-10-09 | 29, 665. 53 | | 2025-08-18 | 28, 091. 30 | | 20 ...

Market Review - The market has shown a continued upward trend over the past two weeks, with increased trading volume and a recovery in investor sentiment, indicating a gradual emergence of a bull market [2] - Key sectors driving this trend include cyclical stocks, securities, and pharmaceuticals, while large-cap stocks have performed strongly, and small-cap stocks have shown average performance [2] - The overall market capacity is substantial, and while trading volume is increasing, it is not sufficient to sustain a broad market rally, leading to a structural bull market characteristic [2] - Optimism remains for the future market, although some pullbacks are expected during the upward movement, which may not alter the overall upward trend [2]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the market is experiencing a short-term upward breakthrough due to several factors, including the stabilization of capital market expectations and the influx of long-term funds, particularly from insurance companies [1][2] - The recent geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a recovery in global risk appetite, alongside expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which has contributed to the market's positive momentum [2][5] - The index's breakthrough has directly boosted risk appetite, resulting in increased trading activity, particularly in small-cap stocks and technology growth sectors [2][8] Group 2 - The article suggests that multiple positive factors are expected to converge between 2026 and 2027, potentially marking a core bull market phase, although the current market still shows signs of weakness [5][6] - The overall economic outlook remains weak, with concerns about macroeconomic support and limited structural improvements, indicating that the market is not yet ready for a bull market [6][8] - The short-term market may still experience speculative index rallies, but significant upward trends are anticipated to begin in late 2025 [8] Group 3 - The article identifies specific sectors with high elasticity for investment opportunities, including stablecoins, national defense, and military industries, as well as the overseas AI computing power industry [8] - High-dividend assets are expected to undergo a revaluation in the medium term, with a focus on banking stocks, which may face adjustment pressure due to excessive short-term attention [8] - The article maintains a structural bullish outlook for A-shares, emphasizing the reliance on breakthroughs in technology industries and highlighting three asset categories closely related to China's strategic opportunities: gold, rare earths, and national defense [8]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a short-term decline in risk appetite, influenced by adjustments in new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, while maintaining a positive medium-term outlook on fundamental trends [2][8] - The banking sector is becoming a preferred choice for risk-averse investors due to its low volatility and high cash flow characteristics, with current valuations at historically low levels [6][8] - The focus on defensive assets includes banks benefiting from insurance stake increases and leading liquor brands entering high dividend yield configurations [2][6] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to gradually rise in the second half of 2025, supported by fiscal stimulus, interest rate cuts in the US, and improvements in deflation and emerging industries [3][8] - Key sectors to watch include innovative pharmaceuticals, service consumption (beauty, pets, retail, social services), AI applications, and public utilities [3][8] - The consumer electronics industry is seeing a structural differentiation in demand, with a strong performance expected in AI-related sectors and domestic alternatives [9][12] Group 3 - The securities industry is projected to experience a net profit growth of 19% in 2025, with a focus on low allocation stocks and potential mergers and acquisitions [10][11] - The healthcare sector is adjusting, with a focus on innovative medical devices and the long-term potential of innovative pharmaceuticals [12][14] - The computer industry is expected to benefit from domestic substitution, AI technology applications, and the release of intelligent computing demand [13][14]

Market Overview - The three major stock indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3402.32 points, up 0.52% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10246.02 points, up 0.83% [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2061.87 points, up 1.21% [1] Sector Performance - The financial sector showed strong performance, with significant gains in rare earth permanent magnets, short drama games, automotive parts, solid-state batteries, and digital currency themes [4] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector led the market, with Jiuling Technology hitting a 30% limit up and Zhongke Magnetic Materials up 20% [4] - The gaming sector also performed well, with Xinghui Entertainment rising over 13% and several other gaming stocks experiencing significant gains [4] Fund Flow - Main funds saw a net inflow into sectors such as non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and automotive, while there was a net outflow from banking, pharmaceutical biology, and telecommunications sectors [6] - Specific stocks with net inflows included N Yingshi, Dongfang Caifu, and Xinyie Securities, with inflows of 1.736 billion, 821 million, and 774 million respectively [7] - Stocks experiencing net outflows included Lianhua Technology, Zhongke Shuguang, and Xinyisheng, with outflows of 860 million, 478 million, and 465 million respectively [8] Institutional Insights - Galaxy Securities suggests that the market will maintain a weak strong state in the short term [9] - Dongfang Securities notes that as overseas frictions ease, there is a phase of trading with relaxed expectations, supported by liquidity pulses that may favor structural bull markets [9] - Attention is drawn to low-level growth sectors such as small metals, new energy, consumer electronics, and media TMT for potential rebounds, while caution is advised regarding rapid capital consumption in heavyweight stocks [9]

Market Overview - The major stock indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3402.32 points, up 0.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10246.02 points, up 0.83%, and the ChiNext Index at 2061.87 points, up 1.21% [1][2] Sector Performance - The financial sector showed significant gains, while sectors such as rare earth permanent magnets, short drama games, automotive parts, solid-state batteries, and digital currency were notably active [1][2] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector led the market with a rise of 4.90%, followed by metal new materials at 4.01% and the gaming sector at 3.67% [3] - Specific stocks in the rare earth sector, such as Jiuling Technology and Zhongke Magnetic, saw increases of 30% and 20% respectively [3] Fund Flow - There was a net inflow of capital into sectors like non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and automotive, while sectors such as banking, pharmaceutical biology, and telecommunications experienced net outflows [5][6][7] - Notable individual stocks with net inflows included N Yingshi, Dongfang Caifu, and Xingye Securities, with inflows of 1.736 billion, 821 million, and 774 million respectively [6] - Conversely, stocks like Lianhua Technology, Zhongke Shuguang, and Xinyi Sheng faced significant sell-offs, with outflows of 860 million, 478 million, and 465 million respectively [7] Institutional Insights - According to Galaxy Securities, the market is expected to maintain a weak strong state in the short term [8] - Dongfang Securities noted that easing expectations for phase trading are emerging as overseas tensions subside, with domestic interbank rates falling below the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate [8] - The report suggests focusing on low-position growth sectors, including small metals, new energy, consumer electronics, and media TMT for potential rebounds [8]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the systemic and practical aspects of the current economic landscape, highlighting the shift in global trade dynamics due to the weakening of direct economic ties between China and the U.S. and the strengthening of China's relationships with emerging markets [1][2] - China's trade connections with emerging markets are becoming increasingly robust, while its trade ties with major U.S. allies have declined, indicating a strategic pivot in China's economic diplomacy [2] - The article suggests that the current "strategic stalemate" between China and the U.S. is a foundational expectation, with an optimistic outlook for China's strategic opportunities beginning to take root among investors [2] Group 2 - The A-share market is seen as having the potential to develop into a bull market due to increasing household asset allocation towards equities, driven by a decline in risk-free interest rates and an upcoming peak in deposit reallocations in 2025 [3][4] - Improvements in corporate governance and shareholder returns are expected to elevate the return baseline for A-shares, while the encouragement of mergers and acquisitions aligns with a turning point in the primary market [4][5] - A significant supply clearing cycle is anticipated, which could lead to a long-term increase in profitability for Chinese enterprises, particularly in high-value sectors [5][6] Group 3 - The current market conditions are not yet signaling the start of a bull market, with various factors influencing demand and supply dynamics, including uncertainties in domestic fiscal policies and real estate [6][7] - The technology sector is undergoing a mid-term adjustment, with breakthroughs in foundational technologies necessary for significant advancements in AI applications [7] - New consumption trends are emerging as a separate industrial trend, but the broader economic transition towards consumption-driven growth is expected to be gradual [7][8] Group 4 - A forecast for A-share profitability in 2025 indicates a likely decline in demand in the latter half of the year, with a projected net profit growth rate of 4.6% for the entire A-share market [8] - The asset management industry is not yet prepared for a bull market, as the accumulation of a profitable effect is necessary for public funds to re-enter the market [9][10] - The potential bull market is expected to be driven by structural trends in new economic industries, with significant catalysts needed for a broader market rally [10][12] Group 5 - The article discusses the conditions necessary for a bull market to emerge, emphasizing the importance of breaking out of the current trading range and the historical context of market behavior following bear markets [11][12] - The potential for a "Chinese-style slow bull" market is highlighted, with expectations for a longer duration of market optimism despite weaker elasticity in fundamental improvements [12][13] - Key sectors such as AI, embodied intelligence, and defense are identified as having the potential to drive structural bull trends, with a focus on high-value opportunities in the technology space [13][14] Group 6 - The Hong Kong stock market is positioned to lead the market rally, serving as a critical link in China's financial external circulation and benefiting from the convergence of domestic and foreign capital [15]