资本主义经济危机
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宗馥莉辞职,恰恰宣告了“家族接班”范式的终结
Hu Xiu· 2025-10-12 06:16
Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Zong Fuli from Wahaha Group's leadership has sparked discussions about the internal family conflict and the future of this iconic Chinese enterprise, highlighting issues related to offshore trusts, equity arrangements, and the transition of mixed-ownership enterprises in China [1] Group 1: "National Stock Private" Model - The ideal "National Stock Private" model involves the state allocating funds based on asset management plans' historical performance, decentralizing investment decisions to competing market institutions [2][3] - Implementing the "National Stock Private" model can potentially break the bottleneck of economic growth, transcending family interests and impacting the trajectory of Chinese enterprises and the economy [3] Group 2: Economic Challenges and Demand Shortage - Demand shortage has been a persistent issue since the industrial era, with various economic theories attempting to address it, yet fiscal policies have often led to increased national debt without the expected economic recovery [4][5] - The current economic landscape in China shows signs of demand shortage, with declining investments and a lack of private sector confidence attributed to policy risks in sectors like real estate and education [5][6] Group 3: Capital Return Rates and Investment Dynamics - The return rate on physical assets in China has decreased from 7% in 2001 to 4.2% in 2023, indicating a weakening profitability of physical assets [6][7] - The overall capital return rate is influenced by the distribution of capital and the economic growth rate, with a historical trend showing that capital return rates tend to decline when capital growth outpaces economic growth [8][9] Group 4: Implications of Wealth Concentration - Wealth concentration among high-income groups leads to a mismatch in demand, where those with capital do not consume enough, resulting in unsold goods and economic stagnation [10][11] - Historical patterns suggest that when wealth becomes overly concentrated, it can lead to social unrest and economic crises, necessitating interventions to redistribute wealth [13][14] Group 5: Future of Corporate Governance - As the founding generation of companies ages, the next generation may lack the management skills needed, leading to a shift from management to mere ownership, which could necessitate changes in governance structures to protect minority shareholders [24][25] - The "National Stock Private" model aims to create a more equitable management structure that aligns the interests of large shareholders, small shareholders, and public shareholders, ultimately benefiting all investors [25][26]
比1929年更可怕的“大萧条”?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-14 06:34
Group 1 - The article warns of a potential economic crisis in the U.S. that could be more severe than the Great Depression of 1929, citing bank failures as evidence [1] - The current economic issues are attributed to an excess of currency rather than a lack of production capacity, contrasting with the 1929 crisis which was primarily due to overproduction [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policies, particularly low interest rates and subsequent rate hikes, are seen as contributing factors to the instability in the banking sector [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the U.S. strategy of shifting its debt and crises onto the global stage, suggesting that developing countries are now unable to bear the burden [2] - It highlights that developing nations contribute significantly to global economic growth but are exploited by U.S. financial practices [2] Group 3 - The current U.S. government is portrayed as being overly focused on capital interests, neglecting the welfare of its citizens, reminiscent of past governmental failures [4] - Instances of corporate misconduct, such as executives selling stocks before bank failures, are cited as evidence of a lack of accountability within the financial sector [4] Group 4 - The article concludes that the U.S. economy is in a state of decline, with its financial assets being described as worthless debt rather than real value [4] - In contrast, nations that continue to focus on production are seen as having the potential for recovery, while the U.S. is depicted as a decaying entity [5]