Core Viewpoint - The book "Trade Policy Disaster" by Douglas A. Irwin examines the historical recurrence of trade protectionism, particularly during the Great Depression of the 1930s, and its implications for modern economic policy [2][8]. Group 1: Trade Protectionism - Trade protectionism is characterized by self-sufficiency and beggar-thy-neighbor policies, often implemented through high tariffs, import quotas, and foreign exchange controls, leading to the collapse of the international trade system [3][4]. - Once trade barriers are established, they can trigger retaliatory measures from other countries, resulting in a downward spiral that severely hampers global trade and economic recovery [3][8]. Group 2: Causes of Trade Protectionism - The author critiques the notion that trade protectionism arises solely from "special interest politics," arguing that during the Great Depression, the rapid decline in trade outpaced production, reducing external competitive pressures on domestic producers [4][5]. - The limited policy toolbox during the 1930s, particularly the adherence to the gold standard, restricted countries' ability to implement monetary policy, forcing governments to resort to trade restrictions [5][6]. Group 3: Historical Evidence - The book provides empirical evidence from 1930s Europe, where countries faced international balance of payments issues and divided into two models: those maintaining the gold standard and implementing trade protectionism, and those allowing currency devaluation for trade openness [7][8]. - Countries that abandoned the gold standard and adopted flexible monetary policies experienced less trade restriction and better economic recovery during the Great Depression, while those that maintained fixed exchange rates saw a dramatic 25% decline in global trade from 1929 to 1932 [8][9]. Group 4: Contemporary Relevance - The study highlights a persistent policy dilemma: during economic crises, countries must carefully balance their exchange rate and trade policies, recognizing the inherent conflicts between the two [9]. - The historical context of the gold standard's "trilemma" continues to resonate today, as developed economies face similar challenges in managing trade barriers and currency devaluation amidst economic pressures [9].

Group 1 - The publication of "The Collection of Sorrow" by Peng Jianbin is described as a reflection on his past regrets regarding his limited output, featuring 16 old works written around 20 years ago that he had previously destroyed but were preserved by a reader [2] - The works in the collection exhibit a common theme of abrupt emotional shifts, ranging from sadness to unexpected joy, showcasing the unique qualities of youthful sincerity and a blend of despair and hope [2] Group 2 - "Extraordinary: Memories of Szymborska" by Michał Rusinek provides a unique perspective on the life of Nobel laureate Wisława Szymborska, detailing their 15-year relationship from the viewpoint of her secretary [8] - The book captures Szymborska's eccentric hobbies, her writing habits, and her complex friendships, emphasizing her enduring curiosity about the world despite the chaos following her Nobel Prize win [8] Group 3 - "The Commitment to Motherhood" explores the lives of 162 low-income women in the early 21st century, highlighting the societal structures that influence their choices regarding marriage and motherhood [12] - The authors argue that understanding these women's decisions is crucial for developing effective interventions, as their high expectations for marriage often contrast with their choices to have children outside of marriage [12] Group 4 - "The Third Reich: A History of Nazi Germany" by Thomas Childs provides a chronological account of the rise and fall of the Third Reich, correcting misconceptions from previous historical narratives [17] - The book emphasizes the dangers of unchecked power and the consequences of authoritarianism, serving as a historical warning [17] Group 5 - "The Trade Policy Disaster" by Douglas A. Irwin examines the trade policies during the Great Depression, analyzing their implications for contemporary economic crises [19] - The author warns that despite claims of learning from past mistakes, current policymakers may still resort to protectionism during economic downturns, risking a repeat of historical disasters [19] Group 6 - "Feeding AI" discusses the hidden labor behind AI technologies, revealing how workers in various roles contribute to the functioning of AI systems while often remaining invisible [20] - The book critiques the power dynamics in the global AI industry, highlighting the disparity between tech giants in the Global North and low-cost laborers in the Global South [20] Group 7 - "The Wisdom of Owls" explores the behaviors and adaptations of owls, shedding light on their communication, hunting, and breeding practices [22] - The author emphasizes the significance of owls in the ecosystem and their evolutionary success, providing insights into their mysterious nature [22]

编辑 | 姜妍 《欣泣集》 剑斌 著 铸刻文化·广西师范大学出版社 2025-9 彭剑斌将《欣泣集》的出版形容为对"悔其少作"的一次反悔。文集中的16篇旧作均写于约20年前，曾被 他亲手销毁，却被一位早期的读者保存在了电脑里，最终在今天得以出版。在发掘和修改的漫长过程 中，彭剑斌不知不觉地投入了迄今为止最大的写作热情，"那么地难以遏制，如此全身心地迎接挫败和 成就感"。如标题所示，这些作品有个共同的特点：里面的人物情绪来得非常突兀，忽而悲伤流泪，忽 而陷入莫名的狂喜。这些文字具有比成熟更加珍贵的品质，那是年轻的心灵所特有的赤诚，天真地悲 《非比寻常》 彭 观，绝望地期待，在漆黑的内心世界里探寻、迷路，同时照亮无边的虚无，如彭剑斌在书中所写："总 之，这希望没有希望。除了对荒谬的激情，我已经一无所有。" [波兰] 米哈乌·鲁西内克 著 茅银辉 孙琰 赵如雨 译 群岛图书·中信出版集团 2025-10 作家略萨曾这样描述获得诺奖之后的生活："得奖一周是童话，一年是噩梦。"1996年诺奖得主、波兰诗 人辛波斯卡也有过类似的经历，得奖后，她原本平静的生活被骤然打破，电话甚至在夜间也响个不停。 就在那一年，24岁刚毕业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration argues that a court ruling against tariffs could undermine the President's foreign policy, jeopardize recent trade agreements, and harm the U.S. economy [3][4][7] Group 1: Legal Context and Arguments - The Trump administration is appealing a ruling that stated the President does not have "unlimited power" to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [6][9] - The administration's legal team claims that tariffs are necessary to prevent a "financial collapse" and warns of potential economic recession if tariffs are overturned [7][11] - Experts suggest that if the Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration, it may lead to the refund of tariffs, impacting government revenue [6][12] Group 2: Economic Implications - As of the current fiscal year, U.S. tariff revenue has reached $142 billion, but it only accounts for 3.1% of total federal revenue [4][12] - Economists argue that the loss of tariff revenue is unlikely to cause a catastrophic economic downturn, as the U.S. government has significant debt and the tariffs do not directly fund social security or Medicare [11][12] - The current U.S. national debt is approaching $37 trillion, making tariff revenue a minor factor in the overall fiscal situation [12] Group 3: Political and Strategic Considerations - The Trump administration's strategy appears to be aimed at acting quickly on tariff issues to prevent the Supreme Court from overturning them, as the consequences could be severe [13] - Small businesses challenging the government argue that the President has other means to achieve trade goals, such as submitting agreements for Congressional approval [13]

Core Viewpoint - The statement from President Trump emphasizes the positive impact of tariffs on the stock market, claiming record highs and significant inflows into the U.S. treasury [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are reportedly having a substantial positive effect on the stock market, with records being set almost daily [1] - Thousands of billions of dollars are flowing into the U.S. treasury as a result of these tariffs [1] - The potential for adverse court rulings is highlighted, with a warning that such decisions could lead to a significant economic downturn reminiscent of the Great Depression in 1929 [1]

Group 1 - The article warns of a potential economic crisis in the U.S. that could be more severe than the Great Depression of 1929, citing bank failures as evidence [1] - The current economic issues are attributed to an excess of currency rather than a lack of production capacity, contrasting with the 1929 crisis which was primarily due to overproduction [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policies, particularly low interest rates and subsequent rate hikes, are seen as contributing factors to the instability in the banking sector [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the U.S. strategy of shifting its debt and crises onto the global stage, suggesting that developing countries are now unable to bear the burden [2] - It highlights that developing nations contribute significantly to global economic growth but are exploited by U.S. financial practices [2] Group 3 - The current U.S. government is portrayed as being overly focused on capital interests, neglecting the welfare of its citizens, reminiscent of past governmental failures [4] - Instances of corporate misconduct, such as executives selling stocks before bank failures, are cited as evidence of a lack of accountability within the financial sector [4] Group 4 - The article concludes that the U.S. economy is in a state of decline, with its financial assets being described as worthless debt rather than real value [4] - In contrast, nations that continue to focus on production are seen as having the potential for recovery, while the U.S. is depicted as a decaying entity [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - In April, bond yields declined across the board, with short-term credit spreads narrowing significantly [4][8][10] - The one-year government bond yield decreased by 8 basis points, while the ten-year government bond yield fell by 16 basis points [10] - The total amount of defaults in April reached 5.87 billion yuan, marking a significant increase from the previous month [27] Group 2: Domestic and International Economic Fundamentals - The U.S. service sector showed a notable decline in activity, with the service PMI dropping to 51.4 from 54.4 [30] - China's GDP growth rate for March was approximately 5.9%, which is 1.0 percentage points higher than the January-February average [4][49] - Domestic consumption, investment, and exports all saw year-on-year increases in March, with exports rising significantly by 13.5% [65] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The political bureau meeting indicated a need for timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to support the real economy [4][100] - The average R001 and R007 rates in April were 1.70% and 1.76%, respectively, both down from March [11] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The report suggests holding high-yield bonds such as long-term credit bonds and high-spread varieties to mitigate uncertainty [4][90] - The analysis indicates that the risk of adjustment in the bond market is low, making it a favorable time to invest in high-yield instruments [4][90]

Group 1 - The core event discussed is the stock market crash on October 24, 1929, known as "Black Thursday," which led to a significant economic downturn in the United States [1] - The stock index dropped from a peak of 363 to an average decline of 40%, resulting in massive financial losses for many Americans [1] - The Great Depression caused severe social issues, including a high dropout rate among students and a significant increase in unemployment, with 8.3 million unemployed in the U.S. and 5 to 7 million in the U.K. [1] Group 2 - President Roosevelt's initial response to the Great Depression involved addressing the banking crisis by ensuring banks could reopen and providing liquidity through the Federal Reserve [3] - Roosevelt abandoned the gold standard, which allowed the Federal Reserve to print more money without the constraint of gold reserves, thus injecting liquidity into the banking system [3][4] - Following the abandonment of the gold standard, public confidence returned, leading to a significant deposit of $1 billion into banks, which helped stabilize the financial system [4] Group 3 - Roosevelt's government spending initiatives aimed to stimulate the economy by providing wages to workers, which in turn increased consumer spending and economic activity [6] - The analogy of digging and filling holes illustrates how government spending can create jobs and stimulate demand across various sectors [6] - Some analysts argue that World War II played a crucial role in fully reviving the U.S. economy by creating demand for military supplies and industrial production [7]

Group 1 - Herbert Hoover, a successful businessman before entering politics, became the U.S. President and significantly raised tariffs on foreign goods, leading to economic turmoil and recession in the U.S. [1] - Hoover's early life was marked by the loss of his parents, which redirected his path from a potential agricultural life to one that included education and global experiences [2][3] - His connection with former President Benjamin Harrison during his time at Stanford University influenced his views on protectionist policies, which he later implemented as President [4][10] Group 2 - As Secretary of Commerce, Hoover promoted housing and automotive industries, earning a reputation as one of the best Commerce Secretaries in U.S. history, which became a political asset for his presidential campaign [12] - Hoover's presidency began with optimism but quickly turned into crisis with the stock market crash of October 1929, marking the start of the Great Depression [14][15] - In response to the economic downturn, Hoover implemented various measures, including urging companies not to cut wages or lay off workers, which ultimately led to business failures [16] Group 3 - Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930, raising tariffs on over 20,000 goods to an average rate of 53%, which prompted retaliatory measures from other countries and worsened international trade [18] - The tariff led to a significant decline in global trade from 1929 to 1933, exacerbating the financial crisis and contributing to the collapse of the U.S. banking system [19][20] - Despite Hoover's efforts to stabilize the economy, including delaying debt repayments, the unemployment rate continued to rise, leading to his eventual defeat in the 1932 election [21]

Group 1: Economic Trends - The nominal GDP growth rate in 2023 is expected to be 4.6%, while the actual GDP growth rate is projected at 5.2%[147] - The gap between nominal and actual GDP growth is rare, indicating potential economic distortions[16] - External demand continues to be a major driver of growth, with trade dynamics resembling those of 2022[31] Group 2: Trade and Tariff Implications - The U.S. tariff levels are projected to rise above 25% post-2025, exceeding the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act[103] - The trade war may lead to a bifurcation of global trade, with significant implications for domestic employment and production capacity[102] - The U.S. trade stance is closely linked to gold prices, reflecting shifts in monetary policy and trade dynamics[107] Group 3: AI and Economic Transformation - AI is seen as a potential new "Ford Model," enhancing productivity but also reducing demand for low-skill jobs[96] - The rapid increase in private sector AI investment indicates a shift towards automation and efficiency[91] - However, AI's impact on job creation is limited compared to historical industrial revolutions, leading to concerns about employment[96]