碳酸锂周报 2024 年 9 月 15 日 去产能预期尤在 锂价震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周回顾：市场围绕宁德锂矿复工博弈，价格在前低处阶 段性企稳。周初，三方媒体透露宁德时代旗下公司召开枕 下窝锂矿复产推动会，市场多头紧急避险离场，盘面跳空 低开。而经市场进一步取证，宁德会议仅为推动矿证申请 组的工作进程，并非计划近期复产，随后价格在低处企稳。 而回顾往期事件来看，前低价格正是反内卷情绪就降温后 的震荡区间。或暗指资源扰动逻辑结束后，反内卷或将是 多空博弈的下一个议题。 ⚫ 后期观点：基本面偏空格局不变，但资源扰动风险小于内 卷治理政策风险，锂价震荡。借鉴近十年相似案例来看， 江西锂资源扰动或难落地，我们更倾向于企业按期交付续 请材料后仍无法在期限内取得新证，但不会影响矿山开 采。因此，资源端的扰动预期有限。相比 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, there were disturbances in both domestic and overseas lithium mines. The political turmoil in northern Mali brought potential resource risks, and some lithium mines in Jiangxi, China might face production suspension risks. Under these disturbances, lithium carbonate was stronger among surplus varieties. Fundamentally, there was no significant fluctuation, and the lithium price increase was driven by high - level supply, but the production increase of cathode factories was not significant, and the growth rate of new - energy vehicle sales slowed down significantly [4]. - In the later stage, there is a risk of repeated resource disturbances, and the lithium price may fluctuate widely. The current policy path is clear, but the market's trading enthusiasm for policy expectations has declined. The main driver of the rising lithium price is the resource - end disturbance risk, but there is no shortage of lithium mines at present, the market inventory is abundant, and the actual scale of overseas disturbances is limited. Whether the lithium mines in Jiangxi will stop production is unknown, and the lithium price may face a decline risk at any time. Fundamentally, the bearish logic continues, and the new - energy consumption growth rate turns negative month - on - month, with a significant year - on - year decline [4][15]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The prices of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%), imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), and domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased by - 1.92%, - 5.26%, and - 5.26% respectively from August 1st to August 8th, 2025. The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price increased by 11.67%, while the industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price decreased by - 2.11%. The lithium carbonate inventory increased by 1.31% [6]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of August 8, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipt scale was 18,829 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 74,160 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2511 was 320,700 lots [8]. - The weekly output of lithium carbonate as of August 8 was 18,548 tons, an increase of 235 tons from the previous period. Driven by the rising lithium price, the production enthusiasm of lithium salt factories remained high, but the spot market price amplitude was far less than that of the futures market, and downstream enterprises were more cautious. The short - term fundamentals lacked absorption capacity, and the supply elasticity of lithium salt would weaken marginally [8]. - In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The import volume from Chile was about 11,853 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11%, accounting for about 67%. The import volume from Argentina was 5,094 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23%, accounting for about 29%. The average import price of lithium carbonate in June increased by about 7.8% month - on - month [9]. - In June, the total import volume of lithium ore was about 605,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8%. The import volume from Australia was 255,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.2%, accounting for about 44%. The import volume from Zimbabwe was about 100,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3%, accounting for about 17%. The import volume from South Africa was about 98,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 86.7%, accounting for 17%. The import volume from Nigeria was about 78,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.5% [10]. - In terms of downstream cathode materials, as of August 8, the production of lithium iron phosphate was about 69,684 tons, with an operating rate of 61.3%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 42,265 tons, an increase of 1,480 tons. The production of ternary materials was about 16,070 tons, with an operating rate of 42.05%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 12,965 tons, an increase of 100 tons. The prices of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly [11]. - From July 1 - 31, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.003 million, a year - on - year increase of 14% and a month - on - month decrease of 10%. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 54.7%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 6.472 million, a year - on - year increase of 30%. The new - energy vehicle sales in July showed a month - on - month decline for the first time, and the year - on - year growth rate dropped significantly [12]. - As of August 8, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 126,906 tons, an increase of about 1,636 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory was 29,815 tons, an increase of about 465 tons; the market inventory was 97,091 tons, an increase of about 1,171 tons; and the exchange inventory was 18,829 tons, an increase of 12,224 tons from the previous week [14]. This Week's Outlook - There is a risk of repeated resource disturbances, and the lithium price may fluctuate widely. The current policy path is clear, but the market's trading enthusiasm for policy expectations has declined. The main driver of the rising lithium price is the resource - end disturbance risk, but there is no shortage of lithium mines at present, and the inventory is abundant. The actual scale of overseas disturbances is limited, and whether the lithium mines in Jiangxi will stop production is unknown. Fundamentally, the bearish logic continues, and the new - energy consumption growth rate turns negative month - on - month, with a significant year - on - year decline [15]. 3. Industry News - WANRUN NEW ENERGY's 120,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate production capacity in Shandong Base has been put into operation, and the recent production schedule is good due to strong downstream demand [16]. - A 20,000 - ton/year lithium carbonate project of China Salt Lake has been officially launched for sales, marking a breakthrough in the large - scale production of high - purity lithium salts [16]. - Ganfeng Lithium's Goulamina mine in Mali is currently operating normally, and its production and transportation are not affected by the local political environment [16]. - Anhui Haichuang New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. plans to build a 500,000 - ton/year high - performance lithium iron phosphate project in Anhui, with the first - phase 50,000 - ton project already put into operation [16].