今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】全球央行储备格局将迎来里程碑式巨变。资 管机构宏观策略师塔维·科斯塔近日发布一组数据显示，除美 联储外，全球央行储备中黄金占比自1996年以来首次超越美国 国债。这宣告了黄金正式登顶全球央行储备资产。评：近期黄 金的持续上涨，央行持续购金是重要原因。市场对9月降息完全 定价，但是预期兑现后或出现反转行情。在降息兑现之前，仍 然为偏多走势，但需要注意节奏。 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能 利用率为82.7%，环比增6.9%。原煤日均产量185.6万吨，环比 增15.6万吨，原煤库存473.2万吨，环比减1.6万吨 ，精煤日均 产量72.8万吨，环比增3.5万吨，精煤库存254.5万吨，环比减 13.6万吨。评：综合来看，焦煤内外供应皆有恢复。需求方 面，上周焦钢企业面临限产，本周下游开工率将有恢复。下游 按需采购为主，现货市场成交一般，等待下游旺季补库，盘面 低位小幅反弹，建议短线区间操作。 投资咨询中心 2025年09月12日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to experience a downturn, with government bond futures showing a significant decline and a tightening liquidity environment affecting market sentiment [1][2][5]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.86% to 114.76, marking the lowest close since March 19 [2]. - The yield on the 10-year government bond increased by 2.75 basis points to 1.822%, while the yield on the 30-year bond rose by 2.5 basis points to 2.096% [2]. - The China Convertible Bond Index fell by 0.63% to 474.4 points, with a trading volume of 724.47 billion [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 2-year yield increasing by 7.41 basis points to 3.560% [3]. - Asian markets saw most bond yields rise, with the 5-year and 10-year yields increasing by 1.5 basis points and 0.4 basis points, respectively [3]. - In the Eurozone, most bond yields also increased, with the UK 10-year yield rising by 1.7 basis points to 4.621% [3]. Primary Market - The weighted average yield for the 91-day Treasury bond was 1.2745%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.04 [4]. - The 5-year fixed-rate bond had a weighted average yield of 1.5973% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.24 [4]. - The 50-year special treasury bond had a yield of 2.2227% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.18 [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a total of 3,040 billion at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 749 billion for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 0.6 basis points to 1.425% [5]. Economic Indicators - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI fell by 2.9%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [7]. - The core CPI has shown an expanding growth rate for four consecutive months, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [7]. Institutional Insights - Long-term liquidity is expected to remain stable, with the central bank likely to continue providing support for government bond issuance [8]. - The new regulations on public fund sales fees are anticipated to enhance the stability of public bond funds, potentially leading to increased inflows into bond ETFs [8].