中金研究 中国大型储能行业正经历从"政策驱动"向"市场化驱动"的关键转折，商业模式逐步清晰、应用场景趋于多元，行业进入规模化、高质量发展的新阶 段。 Abstract 摘要 项目招标数据景气向上，优质电芯供给紧缺。 2025年1-10月国内新型储能招标规模达205.30GWh，同比+45%，央国企集采规模同比+61%，驱动装机规模 持续高增。供给侧头部电芯企业产能利用率接近满产，我们预计供需偏紧态势或将延续至2Q26。 商业模式走向主动价值创造，多元社会资本进场推动储能建设。 "136号文"前，强配项目的价值来源是 "获取新能源路条"，储能价值未能充分体现。"136 号文"后，独立储能可通过"峰谷价差套利+容量市场+辅助服务"发挥真实价值。我们对全国七省区的独立储能经济性进行测算，蒙西、新疆、河北南网资 本金IRR可达10%以上，山西、山东、甘肃在6.5%以上。在此背景下，以专业化基金的形式投资和运营储能电站有望成为大势所趋，多元社会资本加速入 局推动储能建设。 容量电价政策带来短期抢装潮，看好中长期储能需求增长。 我们认为短期内优质节点资源紧缺，在各省容量电价出台的预期下，社会资本纷纷入场，独 立储能有望在 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the energy storage industry is becoming essential in the AI era due to its ability to address the power supply bottlenecks faced by AI operations [1][4] - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella highlighted that the biggest challenge in AI development is not chip supply but rather power shortages [2][3] - The shift of energy storage to a key solution for power supply issues is driven by the intersection of industrial demand, market cycles, and technological integration [3][4] Group 2 - Energy storage is now a critical bridge connecting AI and energy, evolving from merely addressing renewable energy issues to stabilizing power supply for AI data centers [4] - By September 2025, China's new energy storage installed capacity is expected to exceed 100 million kilowatts, accounting for over 40% of the global total, solidifying its position as the world leader [5] - The rapid development of AI technology is creating new investment opportunities and reshaping the cost structure in the energy storage industry [5][6] Group 3 - The integration of AI and energy storage represents a mutual enhancement of technology and industry, with AI providing solutions for efficiency and cost reduction in energy storage [6] - Future AI competition will depend not only on computing power and algorithms but also on the ability to provide sufficient and stable power support [6]

Group 1 - The academic seminar focused on the construction of the electricity market and its role in promoting high proportions of renewable energy development towards a low-carbon future [1] - Key discussions included the need for scientific market mechanisms to incentivize various energy sources and ensure fair competition in the renewable energy sector [1][2] - Experts emphasized the importance of establishing a unified national electricity market system to address regional disparities and enhance trading flexibility [2] Group 2 - The report highlighted the overall progress of electricity market reform in China, including the framework of the market mechanism and the achievements in mid-to-long-term, spot, and ancillary service markets [2] - Recommendations for capacity mechanisms included a "three-step" strategy focusing on capacity compensation, pilot capacity markets, and exploring scarcity pricing in the long term [3] - In terms of price management, experts suggested differentiated pricing mechanisms based on capacity compensation and user load types to better align costs with actual service needs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a new power system is accelerating, establishing the definitive role and trend of commercial and industrial (C&I) energy storage as a key flexibility resource, while recent policy changes have introduced uncertainties in the domestic C&I energy storage market [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The release of the document "Notice on Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of New Energy Grid Connection Prices to Promote High-quality Development of New Energy" has led to significant adjustments in electricity pricing policies across several provinces, reducing the arbitrage opportunities for energy storage [1] - The industry is at a critical juncture for reconstructing business models due to these changes in the market environment [1] Group 2: Company Initiatives - Envision Group launched the "Envision Formula" and an ecological cooperation conference during the SNEC exhibition, aiming to find "certainty" amidst the current "uncertainty" in the C&I energy storage sector [1] - The company is building three core capabilities: product certainty, model certainty, and revenue certainty, through an integrated solution of hardware, software, and services, along with a partner incentive program [1] Group 3: Technological Innovations - Envision's technological breakthrough lies in dynamically optimizing decision-making paths to match the highest value application modes based on real-time electricity prices and load demands, thereby enhancing the economic value of each kilowatt-hour [2] - The Envision energy storage cabinet can integrate with the self-developed microgrid collaborative controller and the cloud-based EnOS energy management platform for real-time interactions, maximizing local electricity revenue through various strategies [2] Group 4: Market Participation - Envision's EnOS virtual power plant can aggregate multiple asset sources to participate in electricity spot market trading, demand response, and ancillary services, creating multiple policy subsidies and market revenues [2] - The company emphasizes that understanding customer needs and possessing system capabilities are essential for navigating uncertainties in electricity pricing and market conditions, thereby ensuring long-term value creation for C&I energy storage projects [2]