Workflow
电力市场建设
icon
Search documents
【电新公用环保】持续看好风电整机环节,关注光伏“防内卷”后续政策——电新公用环保行业周报20250629(殷中枢)
光大证券研究· 2025-06-30 13:10
Overall Viewpoint - Wind power: The price of wind turbine units is stabilizing, and the trend towards larger units along with cost reductions in components will drive continuous improvement in profitability for the turbine segment through 2026. The 136 document reshapes the logic of new energy installations, as wind power has a favorable output curve, leading to a potential recovery in wind power development and power station sales. Short-term pressure is expected from June wind power bidding and Q2 performance, but the market is gradually digesting these issues, and expectations for improvement in related indicators are forming [2]. Component Segment - Attention is drawn to the trend of larger turbine units, particularly in the bearing segment, and investment opportunities in European offshore wind products. The current timing is crucial for performance realization [3]. Photovoltaics - This week, the price of polysilicon futures has rebounded due to news factors. After experiencing internal competition policies in Q4 2024 and a rush for installations in Q1 2025, the photovoltaic sector's debt repayment ability did not continue to deteriorate during Q1 2025. However, starting in May 2025, production and prices in the photovoltaic sector have declined, further worsening the sector's debt repayment and profitability. It is anticipated that supply or demand-side support policies will strengthen in the next phase, with a focus on BC cells, perovskite, silicon materials, and low-PB integrated companies [3]. Solid-State Batteries - The market for solid-state batteries has expanded to include copper foil, separators, and other segments, which are currently at low price levels and in distress, but may not have reversed yet. In the short term, there is a risk of a pullback in the solid-state battery sector. However, in the medium term, battery manufacturers are actively advancing semi-solid production lines and full solid-state experiments, leading to increased capital expenditure in the solid-state battery sector, supported by policies. Continuous attention is recommended for solid-state battery front and mid-process equipment, lithium sulfide, solid-state electrolyte membranes, and dry-process positive electrode technologies [3]. Energy Storage - There is a consensus in the market regarding the favorable outlook for large-scale energy storage in Europe and overseas commercial storage. However, there are differing views on the profitability improvement and demand rhythm for domestic large-scale storage following the 136 document. The good bidding data for large-scale storage in May-June is related to the "531" rush for installations and independent energy storage "land grabbing." The mid-term profitability improvement for large-scale storage relies on the construction of the electricity market and improved trading flexibility, while the peak-valley price difference remains cyclical. In the short term, large-scale storage still requires substantial subsidies, but the commercial model is expected to improve, necessitating continuous monitoring of large-scale storage bidding data changes in the second half of the year [4][5].