今年以来，港股市场表现强劲，成为市场关注的焦点。不少投资者对其背后的驱动逻辑及2026年的延续 性尤为关注。Wind数据显示，截至11月25日收盘，恒生指数、恒生科技指数今年以来分别累计上涨 29.09%、25.60%。 中金公司研究部首席海外策略分析师刘刚日前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，2025年港股的优异表 现由流动性和情绪主导，其脉络是"过剩流动性"对"稀缺回报资产"的追逐。展望2026年，流动性充裕的 局面将延续，但"稀缺资产"难以大幅扩散，市场将更多由结构性景气驱动，投资者需在把握产业主线的 同时，警惕潜在风险，灵活布局。 流动性驱动下的"稀缺资产"追逐战 回顾2025年，港股在全球市场中一马当先。刘刚表示，尽管面临海外不确定性因素扰动，但港股市场在 AI产业趋势和国内经济基本面改善的背景下，内外部流动性的"叙事"显著放大。"今年港股市场的表 现，估值和情绪的贡献占据了主导，资金流入起到了助推作用。"他说。 刘刚进一步阐释了贯穿全年的核心脉络，即"过剩流动性"对"稀缺回报资产"的追逐。刘刚表示："当信 用周期收缩时，大部分资产缺乏回报，资金会涌向能提供固定回报的资产；而当信用周期局部修复时， 则 ...

中金公司（601995）研究部首席海外策略分析师刘刚日前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，2025年港 股的优异表现由流动性和情绪主导，其脉络是"过剩流动性"对"稀缺回报资产"的追逐。展望2026年，流 动性充裕的局面将延续，但"稀缺资产"难以大幅扩散，市场将更多由结构性景气驱动，投资者需在把握 产业主线的同时，警惕潜在风险，灵活布局。 今年以来，港股市场表现强劲，成为市场关注的焦点。不少投资者对其背后的驱动逻辑及2026年的延续 性尤为关注。数据显示，截至11月25日收盘，恒生指数、恒生科技指数今年以来分别累计上涨 29.09%、25.60%。 ● 本报记者 刘英杰 流动性驱动下的"稀缺资产"追逐战 对于市场普遍关注的美联储货币政策转向，刘刚认为，2026年上半年全球流动性环境将维持宽松，但下 半年存在变数。他预判美联储2026年可能降息3次，但长端利率中枢仍将维持在3.8%—4%的较高水平。 "美联储降息短期有利于提振港股流动性，但这并非决定性因素。"刘刚称，复盘港股市场历史，国内基 本面和政策的影响更为关键。他提出了两种放大降息利好的方式：一是借此窗口实施更大力度的国内宽 松政策，以支撑信用扩张；二是关注 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2023, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 29.09% and 25.60% respectively, driven by liquidity and sentiment, and this trend is expected to continue into 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance and Drivers - The strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market in 2023 is attributed to "excess liquidity" chasing "scarce return assets," with valuation and sentiment playing a significant role [1][2] - Despite external uncertainties, the market has benefited from trends in the AI industry and improvements in the domestic economic fundamentals [1][2] - The overall profitability of listed companies in Hong Kong is slightly below initial expectations for 2023, with sectors like biopharmaceuticals and technology hardware showing resilience, while e-commerce and real estate face more significant pressures [2] Group 2: Future Liquidity and Investment Strategies - The liquidity environment is expected to remain ample in the first half of 2026, with potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, although the long-term interest rate is projected to stay high at 3.8% to 4% [2][3] - Southbound capital is anticipated to continue flowing into the Hong Kong market, with an expected inflow of 600 billion HKD from public funds and insurance capital, and 500 billion HKD from individual investors [3] - Investment preferences are shifting from high-dividend sectors to growth areas, with a focus on AI technology and sectors benefiting from overseas demand [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Key investment directions for 2026 include AI-driven industry trends, capacity cycle reversals, and sectors related to export and commodities amid global uncertainties [4][5] - Investors are advised to maintain flexibility in their strategies, balancing between chasing structural growth and taking profits when market conditions become overheated [5]