2025年07月22日 证券研究报告 | 即时零售系列报告（一）：竞争格局、 平台博弈与巨头利润影响 行业研究 · 行业专题 互联网 · 互联网Ⅱ 投资评级：优于大市（维持） | 证券分析师：张伦可 | 证券分析师：张昊晨 | 证券分析师：陈淑媛 | | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-81982651 | zhanghaochen1@guosen.com.cn | 021-60375431 | | zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn | S0980525010001 | chenshuyuan@guosen.com.cn | | S0980521120004 | | S0980524030003 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 1 报告摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2 • 即时零售是通过线上即时下单，线下即时履约，依托本地零售供给，满足本地即时需求的零售业态。当前，即时零售的需 求主要源于线下场景的转移，2024年市场规模已达7800亿元，近5年复合增长率高达46%。从 "多、快、好、省" 的维度 分析， "快" 是即时零售的核心优势， ...

Core Insights - The rapid rise of Taobao Flash Sale, in collaboration with Ele.me, has led to a historic moment in China's food delivery industry, with daily orders surpassing 200 million for the first time [2][3] - The competitive landscape has intensified, with Meituan responding to Taobao Flash Sale's aggressive strategy, resulting in a significant increase in daily order volumes across the industry [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me achieved 80 million daily orders on July 5, while Meituan maintained 120 million orders, contributing to a total of over 200 million daily orders in the industry [2][3] - JD.com has disrupted the market with a combination of zero commission policies and enhanced delivery services, increasing its daily order volume from 5 million in April to 25 million in June [3][4] Group 2: Strategic Leadership - The key strategist behind this campaign is Jiang Fan, who has rejoined Alibaba's core management and is credited with breaking down internal barriers and seizing strategic opportunities [4][5] - Jiang Fan's return has revitalized Alibaba's competitive spirit, allowing for a more aggressive approach in the local lifestyle market [4][5] Group 3: Resource Integration and Investment - Alibaba has committed a total of 600 billion yuan in subsidies, which is 75% of its projected net profit for 2024, to support the Flash Sale initiative across various product categories [7][8] - The strategy includes integrating resources from different business units, such as placing Flash Sale prominently on the Taobao app and leveraging Ele.me's delivery capabilities [5][6] Group 4: Long-term Strategy and Market Positioning - The success of Flash Sale is seen as a critical step for Alibaba in maintaining its market position against competitors like Douyin and Pinduoduo, which have been eroding its market share [4][14] - The integration of Taobao and Ele.me aims to create a closed-loop commercial ecosystem, enhancing user engagement and retention [13][14] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The competition among Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com is intensifying, with Tencent's potential influence through its WeChat platform remaining a significant variable in the market dynamics [17][18] - The battle for user retention and the establishment of instant consumption habits will be crucial for determining long-term market leaders [18][19]