2025年已经过去大半。回顾今年前9个月，国内经济稳中有升、居民存款快速增长，物价总体保持稳定。而略显不足的是，居民消费需求持续萎缩、房地产 市场继续低迷。对此，有业内人士表示：如果不出意外，从10月份开始，国内房子、车子、存款或将发生重大改变。让我们一起来了解一下： 第一，房地产市场将迎来重大改变 我国房地产市场是从2022年开始调整。而在进入到2025年之后，各地房价仍然延续之前下降的趋势。最新数据，9月全国百城二手住宅均价为13381元/平方 米，同比下跌7.38%。全国百城二手房价格已连续41个月环比下跌。而从目前情况看，从2025年10月份开始，国内房地产市或将迎来三大改变： 1、未来房价下跌会有新变化。在进入到2025年下半年之后，之前房价跌幅较大的城市，未来跌幅会较之前放缓。未来一线城市的房价或将会出现补跌。先 是从郊区房价开始下跌，之后逐步蔓延到市中心区域的"老破小"，未来中心城区的次新房和新房价格也都会下跌。最终房价逐步与当地居民收入挂钩。 2、保障房入市的步伐将加快。去年我国高层就宣布，将在未来5年内，提供600万套保障房，以满足低收入家庭的居住需求。这意味着，从2025年下半年开 始，国 ...

大家是否注意到，全球经济正在逐渐显现走出通缩周期的迹象？ 最新数据显示，广义货币供应量与狭义货币供应量增速的剪刀差已从去年九月的低点快速回升，目前收窄至接近均衡水平。按照这一趋势，未来几个月内有 望实现正向增长。 回顾过去十年，类似速度的回升仅出现过三次：2015年至2016年、2020年至2021年，以及当前这一时期。 值得注意的是，这类货币指标的改善往往与股票市场的表现密切相关——股市率先启动行情，随后货币指标跟进回暖。这印证了一个经典观点：股市在经济 调控中扮演着重要角色，而其影响力正在逐步显现。 此时，投资者难免产生疑问：若经济已步入复苏轨道，股市是否还将继续发挥其政策工具的作用？就现阶段而言，这个问题的答案是否定的。 近期从科技和消费两大领域的表现来看，资本市场与居民消费已形成紧密关联。健康持续的牛市行情将成为推动经济转型的重要助力。八月份多项经济指标 显示，尽管新兴产业表现亮眼，但传统增长引擎仍面临压力，消费信贷指标也连续多个季度呈现收缩态势。这意味着在新旧动能转换的关键时期，资本市场 的支持作用仍不可或缺。 消费行业特别是新兴消费领域也值得密切关注。随着货币指标持续改善，若通缩压力真正缓解，消费 ...

来源：石榴询财 上周末，财政部发布新规，从 8 月 8日起，新买的国债、地方债、金融债利息要交增值税。 以这些债券为核心底层的公募债基、银行理财，会有什么样的影响？ 01 去年底，老南就在《2025年如何理财》中提醒了债券25年会比较难受，在"16号内参"里也写了很多篇， 提醒过去两年债基的好日子，基本结束了。 债基，包括以债券为主要底层的银行理财，也包括以债券为主要底层的理财类保险，就进入 痛苦期了。 年化收益，做点信用利差，再拉点久期，一年也就2%多一点了。 1月16日的《央妈重拳维稳，聊下债券和红利ETF》提醒： 债券过去两年的好日子基本也结束了，随着收益率快速下滑，资本利得的收益已经透支了未 来，未来也就可怜的票息收入了。 相信半年下来，看看你持有的债基、银行理财的收益，大家应该能理解，为啥老南半年前就在给大家预 警了。然后，这两天债市又来了个税收小利空。 这次新规分新老划断，今年8月8日前发的债（包括之后续发的老券），利息免税到期；但这之后新发的 债，利息就得交税了。 税率分两档：金融机构自营类按6%交，基金、理财这类资管产品按3%交。 | 所得税 | 普通自贸机构 | | 公基基金 | | 普通资 ...

Group 1 - GDP growth in Q2 was 5.2% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, but this does not necessarily indicate economic recovery [2] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year but fell by 0.1% month-on-month, indicating persistent weak demand [2] - Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, marking 32 consecutive months of decline, which is a concerning economic indicator [4] Group 2 - Total import and export value increased by 1.3% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year, potentially as a response to tariff battles [4] - Real estate prices in second and third-tier cities fell by 3.0% and 4.6% year-on-year for new homes, and 5.8% and 6.7% for second-hand homes, indicating a struggling property market [4] - Land transfer fees for residential land in 300 cities increased by 24.5% year-on-year, suggesting some activity in the real estate sector despite overall declines [6] Group 3 - The divergence between GDP growth and other core indicators suggests underlying structural issues in the economy [6] - The focus on maintaining GDP growth has led to increased debt and a widening gap between supply and demand, indicating inefficiencies in the economic model [8] - The current economic policies are seen as superficial, failing to address the root causes of structural problems, particularly in the real estate sector [9]

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, surpassing major global economies [1] - The average wage income for residents reached 12,628 yuan, an increase of 5.7% [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decline of 0.1%, indicating stable price levels [1] Real Estate Market - The real estate market continues to experience a downward trend, with average second-hand housing prices in 100 cities dropping by 3.60% [5] - Major cities, including first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, are also seeing significant price declines [5] - There is a growing demand for the cancellation of pre-sale housing, with a shift towards selling completed properties expected in the second half of 2025 [5][7] Automotive Industry - A price war has emerged in the automotive sector, with brands like Honda and Chevrolet reducing prices by over 60,000 yuan on certain models [9] - Domestic brands such as Geely and BYD are also participating in price reductions, with some models seeing price drops from 220,000 yuan to 180,000 yuan [9] - Factors contributing to the price decline include market oversupply due to the influx of electric vehicles and increased competition from tech companies entering the automotive market [9] Consumer Behavior and Economic Conditions - The overall trend indicates a stable yet declining price environment, suggesting that money is becoming more valuable [10] - However, this also points to a deflationary cycle, leading to decreased consumer demand and challenges for businesses in terms of cash flow and hiring [10]

Group 1: Economic Trends - The domestic economy is entering a deflationary cycle, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to decline by 0.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, particularly affecting prices of housing, automobiles, small appliances, pork, and luxury goods [1] - The decline in prices is attributed to a sluggish real economy, slow or reduced growth in household income, and weakened purchasing power, alongside overcapacity and intense competition in the market [1] Group 2: Price Increases - Starting from July, there is an anticipated "price surge" for essential goods, specifically in three categories: grain, gasoline, and daily necessities [3] Group 3: Grain Prices - Grain prices, including rice and flour, have seen significant increases, with rice prices rising from 20-30 yuan for a 5 kg bag to 30-40 yuan [5] - The rise in grain prices is driven by extreme weather affecting global production, reduced exports from major grain-producing countries like Russia and Ukraine, and increased costs of agricultural inputs [5] Group 4: Gasoline Prices - Domestic energy prices, particularly gasoline and diesel, have rebounded, with prices increasing by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton respectively since July [7] - The rebound in gasoline prices is influenced by intensified sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine conflict, rising global demand for oil, and a lack of consensus on production increases from OPEC [7] Group 5: Daily Necessities Prices - Prices for daily necessities have also risen, with examples including shower gel increasing from 20-30 yuan to over 40 yuan per bottle, and facial tissue prices rising from 18 yuan to 25 yuan per pack [9] - The increase in prices for daily necessities is attributed to rising raw material costs, increased transportation expenses due to higher oil prices, and manufacturers taking advantage of the essential nature of these products to implement price hikes [9]

Economic Overview - The domestic economy is currently in a deflationary cycle, making it increasingly difficult for both business owners and employees to earn money [2] - The overall price trend remains stable, leading to an increase in the value of money held by individuals [2] Interest Rates and Savings Behavior - Recent years have seen a decline in deposit interest rates, with the 3-year deposit rate dropping from 3.15% to 1.8%, a decrease of over 40% [5] - Despite lower interest rates, the enthusiasm for saving among depositors remains high due to rising risks in stock markets and other investment products, as well as the need for financial security against unemployment and health issues [5] Employment Trends - The number of flexible employment workers has surpassed 200 million, with an expected rapid increase due to a sluggish real economy and job scarcity [8] - Many young individuals are opting for gig jobs such as delivery and ride-sharing, while middle-aged workers are turning to freelance or temporary work after losing stable jobs [8] Demographic Changes - There is a notable increase in the number of individuals choosing not to marry or have children, with marriage registrations in Q1 2025 dropping to 181,000, a decrease of 15.9% year-on-year [10] - The cost of marriage and child-rearing is cited as a significant factor, with estimates indicating that raising a child from birth to college graduation costs at least 680,000 RMB [10] Job Security and Employment Structure - Traditional "iron rice bowl" jobs are becoming less secure, with shifts from lifetime employment to contract-based roles, particularly in education and public service sectors [12] - There is a trend of downsizing and reduced benefits in state-owned enterprises, indicating a broader shift in job security [12]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market is experiencing a trend of declining transaction volume and prices, with average housing prices dropping by 30% from their peak, particularly in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [2] Group 1: Market Trends - The real estate market is facing a "dual decline" in both transaction amounts and areas sold, indicating a significant downturn [2] - Various government policies aimed at stimulating the market have been introduced, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions, lowering mortgage rates and down payment ratios, and tax exemptions for homebuyers [2] Group 2: Investment Considerations - For individuals with 500,000 yuan, it is suggested to keep the money in the bank rather than purchasing property, as the current housing prices in major cities are prohibitively high [6][8] - Even if 500,000 yuan could cover a down payment in second or third-tier cities, it would deplete all savings and impose a heavy mortgage burden, making bank savings or other investments a more prudent choice [6][8] - In a deflationary cycle, bank interest can supplement household expenses, while purchasing property could lead to significant wealth depreciation if housing prices continue to fall [8]

今天小伙伴给我转发了一个研报pdf，日本经济回顾及展望(1945~2024)，你们百度一下也能搜得到，是 申万宏源分析师写的。 一整个下来44页图文，我比较感兴趣的是1990-2013这个阶段，正好对应了日本资产负债表的大衰退时 期。 里面提到1989年起日本央行为了抑制经济过热，15个月内加息5次，把利率从2.5%提高到了6%，从而导 致股市和房市的泡沫双双被刺破。之后日本资产大幅下降，全社会都在跑步去杠杆，日本资产负债表大 衰退。 面对这个情况日本政府的反应有些迟钝，有可能它们一开始并不觉得这是个问题，反而觉得适当的降温 有助于经济回归理性。因为我看到日本在1997年还加征了一次消费税，哈哈，迷之自信，说明起码在 1997年日本政府还没觉得本国经济有什么大问题，这战略定力刚刚的。 大概从2000年左右日本政府开始发力提振经济，这个时候离泡沫崩溃已经过去10年了，政府给企业减 税，另外大幅增加政府负债，赤字一年高过一年，但这个时候日本经济已经具备很强的惯性，很难显著 挽回。 然后时间一晃就到了2013年，安倍晋三上台后施行更为激进的经济政策，货币超宽松，主动让日元贬 值，进一步给企业减税，优化劳动力市场和企 ...