2026 年 1 月 9 日 总量研究 关注"涨价潮"的扩散 ——2025 年 12 月价格数据点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 CPI 涨势能否延续？——2025 年 11 月价格 数据点评(2025-12-10) PPI 环比转正，谁是拉手？——2025 年 10 月价格数据点评（2025-11-09） CPI 同比何时有望转正？——2025 年 9 月 价格数据点评（2025-10-15） PPI 迎来上行拐点——2025 年 8 月价格数 据点评（2025-09-10） "反内卷"效果初现——2025 年 7 月价格 数据点评（2025-08-09） 核心通胀继续回暖——2025 年 6 月价格数 据点评（2025-07-09） 如何看待分化的物价？——2025 年 5 月价 格数据点评（2025-06-09） 国内物价运行好于预期——2025 年 4 月价 格数据点评（2 ...

新一轮的涨价潮，是要来了吗？ 2025年12月15日起，在无官方通知的情况下，麦当劳对多款餐品的价格进行上调，涨幅在0.5-1元， 包括多款汉堡、小食及套餐。 然后是茅台。 2025年12月24日，第三方平台"今日酒价"数据显示，茅台酒全系列产品批发价全线上涨，其中25年 飞天茅台原箱单日涨40元至1600元/瓶，生肖蛇原箱单日暴涨230元至2000元/瓶，非标产品涨幅显 著。 再然后是中芯国际。 中芯国际已经对部分产能实施了涨价，涨幅约为 10% 。据 《科创板日报》报道，中芯国际已向下游 客户发布涨价通知，且此次涨价主要集中于8英寸BCD工艺平台，涨价幅度在10%左右。 再然后是航运方面。 全球主要集装箱航运公司已陆续发布新年首轮运价调整通知。地中海航运（ MSC ）、达飞轮船（ CMA CGM ）、马士基（ Maersk ）及赫伯罗特（ Hapag-Lloyd ）等巨头纷纷行动。 计划自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起，对欧洲、地中海、非洲、拉美等多条关键航线征收旺季附加费（ PSS ）或上调均一运费率。 再再然后，手机其实也有涨价。 这段时间，我不知道大家有没有关注，好多行业，好多东西，要开始涨价了。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing price increase trend in the coking coal market is highlighted, with the eighth round of price hikes for coke imminent, raising questions about whether coking coal will trigger a new round of price increases and the potential for short sellers to find an "escape" [1] Group 1 - The eighth round of price increases for coke is approaching, indicating a sustained upward trend in prices [1] - Market attention is focused on whether coking coal will ignite a new wave of price increases [1] - There is concern regarding the potential for short sellers to find opportunities to exit their positions [1]

Group 1: Economic Trends - The domestic economy is entering a deflationary cycle, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to decline by 0.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, particularly affecting prices of housing, automobiles, small appliances, pork, and luxury goods [1] - The decline in prices is attributed to a sluggish real economy, slow or reduced growth in household income, and weakened purchasing power, alongside overcapacity and intense competition in the market [1] Group 2: Price Increases - Starting from July, there is an anticipated "price surge" for essential goods, specifically in three categories: grain, gasoline, and daily necessities [3] Group 3: Grain Prices - Grain prices, including rice and flour, have seen significant increases, with rice prices rising from 20-30 yuan for a 5 kg bag to 30-40 yuan [5] - The rise in grain prices is driven by extreme weather affecting global production, reduced exports from major grain-producing countries like Russia and Ukraine, and increased costs of agricultural inputs [5] Group 4: Gasoline Prices - Domestic energy prices, particularly gasoline and diesel, have rebounded, with prices increasing by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton respectively since July [7] - The rebound in gasoline prices is influenced by intensified sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine conflict, rising global demand for oil, and a lack of consensus on production increases from OPEC [7] Group 5: Daily Necessities Prices - Prices for daily necessities have also risen, with examples including shower gel increasing from 20-30 yuan to over 40 yuan per bottle, and facial tissue prices rising from 18 yuan to 25 yuan per pack [9] - The increase in prices for daily necessities is attributed to rising raw material costs, increased transportation expenses due to higher oil prices, and manufacturers taking advantage of the essential nature of these products to implement price hikes [9]