AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美联储每年一度的杰克逊霍尔研讨会，通常是央行官员和学界轻松交流的时刻。他们会讨论一些复杂的 经济议题，然后在大提顿山徒步。今年的杰克逊霍尔研讨会则显得气氛紧张，凸显出美联储未来道路的 艰难。 上周五，美联储主席鲍威尔在主旨演讲中暗示，美联储最快可能在9月的政策会议上降息。然而，决策 者之间对这是否是正确的选择存在明显分歧。鲍威尔本人也指出，当前的经济形势给美联储官员带来 了"充满挑战的局面"。 决策者们正努力应对高于2%目标、并且仍在上升的通胀，同时劳动力市场却显露疲弱迹象。这种将政 策拉向两个相反方向的现实，加上未来几个月这些因素如何演变的不确定性，使难度进一步加大。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比在会场一侧接受采访时表示： "我们正面临一些相互冲突的信号，而环境非常复杂。我一直说，央行最难的任务就是在转 折时刻把握好时机。" 研讨会也凸显了政治压力对美联储的影响。随着美国总统特朗普寻求在未来几个月对美联储继续施加影 响，这种压力很可能进一步加剧。 今年的安保措施明显比往年更严格，进一步加剧了会场的紧张氛围。美联储警察、美国公园警察和当地 的提顿县警长办公室 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, is expected to announce a significant policy framework adjustment at the Jackson Hole central bank conference, moving away from the framework established five years ago, which is no longer suitable in the current high inflation environment [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Framework Changes - The 2020 policy adjustment by the Federal Reserve involved two main shifts: allowing inflation to moderately exceed the 2% target for a period to compensate for previous shortfalls, and focusing solely on high unemployment without concern for low unemployment, reducing the urgency for preemptive rate hikes [2][3]. - The framework was initially seen as a major innovation to address concerns about the central bank's ability to respond to future recessions due to historically low interest rates [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Response - The surge in inflation in 2021 revealed flaws in the framework, as the Fed's commitment to maintaining low rates to stimulate labor market recovery led to delayed action, with rate hikes only beginning in March 2022 when inflation reached a 40-year high [3][4]. - Economists have pointed out that the 2020 framework contributed to the Fed's slow response, as officials overly focused on minimizing unemployment [3][4]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions on Framework Effectiveness - Some former Fed officials argue that the asymmetric employment target led to a delayed response to the inflation surge, while others contend that the main issue was the significant forecasting errors made by the Fed and external economists regarding inflation being temporary [4][5]. - The need for a robust framework that remains stable despite macroeconomic fluctuations has been emphasized, highlighting the importance of not overreacting to short-term economic results [5].