Core Points - The balance of risks has shifted, with increased pressure on employment compared to previous concerns about inflation [1][8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is viewed as a one-time effect, with limited long-term risks [3][8] - The adjustment of the Federal Reserve's policy framework allows for more flexible operations [3][8] - The possibility of a rate cut in September is open, contingent on upcoming data trends [5][8] Summary by Categories Employment and Inflation - The current labor market appears balanced but is not healthy, as both labor supply and demand are slowing down [1][3] - If employment data continues to weaken, the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts without significant concerns about inflation [5][7] Tariff Impact - Tariffs are expected to cause a temporary price increase, but this will not lead to a sustained high inflation trend [3][5] - The price effects of tariffs are becoming visible, but the key question remains whether these increases will lead to persistent inflation [5][8] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has removed specific language from its policy framework, allowing for more straightforward communication and decision-making [3][8] - The cautious but dovish tone of Powell's speech indicates that if the job market continues to weaken, the likelihood of a rate cut increases [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, is expected to announce a significant policy framework adjustment at the Jackson Hole central bank conference, moving away from the framework established five years ago, which is no longer suitable in the current high inflation environment [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Framework Changes - The 2020 policy adjustment by the Federal Reserve involved two main shifts: allowing inflation to moderately exceed the 2% target for a period to compensate for previous shortfalls, and focusing solely on high unemployment without concern for low unemployment, reducing the urgency for preemptive rate hikes [2][3]. - The framework was initially seen as a major innovation to address concerns about the central bank's ability to respond to future recessions due to historically low interest rates [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Response - The surge in inflation in 2021 revealed flaws in the framework, as the Fed's commitment to maintaining low rates to stimulate labor market recovery led to delayed action, with rate hikes only beginning in March 2022 when inflation reached a 40-year high [3][4]. - Economists have pointed out that the 2020 framework contributed to the Fed's slow response, as officials overly focused on minimizing unemployment [3][4]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions on Framework Effectiveness - Some former Fed officials argue that the asymmetric employment target led to a delayed response to the inflation surge, while others contend that the main issue was the significant forecasting errors made by the Fed and external economists regarding inflation being temporary [4][5]. - The need for a robust framework that remains stable despite macroeconomic fluctuations has been emphasized, highlighting the importance of not overreacting to short-term economic results [5].

Core Viewpoint - Despite recent fluctuations, gold prices are expected to trend upwards due to ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, with predictions of reaching $3,500 per ounce in the short term [3][4]. Market Performance - On May 27, gold opened at $3,342.46 per ounce, peaked at $3,350.03, and dipped to a low of $3,324.34, closing at $3,325.49, reflecting a decrease of 0.50% [1]. - Gold ETFs experienced a slight decline of 0.31% during the trading session, with a turnover rate of 1.54% and a transaction amount of 4.41 billion [1]. Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing trade negotiations between the EU and the U.S. have led to a delay in tariff implementations, which may affect the demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3]. - Recent comments from President Trump regarding Russia and Ukraine have heightened geopolitical tensions, further increasing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Economic Indicators - Gold prices have risen over 25% this year, although they remain approximately $165 below last month's historical peak [4]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit and ongoing trade negotiations are key factors influencing market sentiment and gold demand [3][4]. Investment Strategy - The gold ETF (159937) offers a low-cost, low-barrier investment option that closely tracks domestic gold prices, supporting T+0 trading [5]. - Long-term investment in gold is recommended due to its ability to hedge against economic downturns and its stable performance across different economic cycles [5].