Core Points - The balance of risks has shifted, with increased pressure on employment compared to previous concerns about inflation [1][8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is viewed as a one-time effect, with limited long-term risks [3][8] - The adjustment of the Federal Reserve's policy framework allows for more flexible operations [3][8] - The possibility of a rate cut in September is open, contingent on upcoming data trends [5][8] Summary by Categories Employment and Inflation - The current labor market appears balanced but is not healthy, as both labor supply and demand are slowing down [1][3] - If employment data continues to weaken, the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts without significant concerns about inflation [5][7] Tariff Impact - Tariffs are expected to cause a temporary price increase, but this will not lead to a sustained high inflation trend [3][5] - The price effects of tariffs are becoming visible, but the key question remains whether these increases will lead to persistent inflation [5][8] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has removed specific language from its policy framework, allowing for more straightforward communication and decision-making [3][8] - The cautious but dovish tone of Powell's speech indicates that if the job market continues to weaken, the likelihood of a rate cut increases [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, is expected to announce a significant policy framework adjustment at the Jackson Hole central bank conference, moving away from the framework established five years ago, which is no longer suitable in the current high inflation environment [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Framework Changes - The 2020 policy adjustment by the Federal Reserve involved two main shifts: allowing inflation to moderately exceed the 2% target for a period to compensate for previous shortfalls, and focusing solely on high unemployment without concern for low unemployment, reducing the urgency for preemptive rate hikes [2][3]. - The framework was initially seen as a major innovation to address concerns about the central bank's ability to respond to future recessions due to historically low interest rates [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Response - The surge in inflation in 2021 revealed flaws in the framework, as the Fed's commitment to maintaining low rates to stimulate labor market recovery led to delayed action, with rate hikes only beginning in March 2022 when inflation reached a 40-year high [3][4]. - Economists have pointed out that the 2020 framework contributed to the Fed's slow response, as officials overly focused on minimizing unemployment [3][4]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions on Framework Effectiveness - Some former Fed officials argue that the asymmetric employment target led to a delayed response to the inflation surge, while others contend that the main issue was the significant forecasting errors made by the Fed and external economists regarding inflation being temporary [4][5]. - The need for a robust framework that remains stable despite macroeconomic fluctuations has been emphasized, highlighting the importance of not overreacting to short-term economic results [5].

周二(5月27日)本交易日国际黄金日内维持震荡走势，今日开盘报3342.46美元/盎司，最高触及3350.03美元/盎司，最低触及3324.34美元/盎司，截止当前金价 报3325.49美元/盎司，涨幅-0.50%。黄金ETF基金（159937）盘中涨幅-0.31%，换手率1.54%，成交金额4.41亿。（数据来源：Wind） 北京首创期货指出，近期鲍威尔提出调整美联储政策框架理论上对金价有一定利空，但今年美联储对金价的影响力并不大。特朗普大而美法案通过，短期而 言，减缓了市场对经济的担忧，利空金价，但长期而言，美国杠杆率将进一步上升，长线视角利多金价。国际货币制度的松动，央行增持黄金，全球地缘局 势复杂，全球经济下行压力增加，是推动金价长期上行的主要因素。从基本面角度看，中长期变量没有发生根本性改变，从技术面角度看，黄金的中长期涨 势也没有任何改变。短期行情进入高位整理，回踩60日均线后仍是做多机会。 黄金ETF基金（159937）通过投资上海黄金交易所AU9999现货合约，实现与国内金价的高度拟合，具有低门槛、低成本和交易形式多样化等特点，支持T+0 交易。长期来看，黄金中枢随信用货币规模而稳定抬升，以及 ...