Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $4078, experiencing downward pressure due to improved market sentiment following preliminary agreements on key trade issues between China and the U.S. [1][3] - The optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade relations has significantly reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, leading to a sharp decline in prices at the market open on Monday [3][4] - Despite the bearish sentiment from trade developments, expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week provide crucial support for gold prices, with nearly 100% probability of a rate reduction to 3.75%-4.00% [3][4] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, slightly below the expected 3.1%, reinforcing the market's belief in a dovish monetary policy [3][4] - Geopolitical dynamics, particularly the potential diplomatic resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have further diminished gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset [4][5] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices recorded a small entity close, indicating continued pressure after a significant drop, with potential further declines towards the $3900 region [7] - Short-term trading signals suggest that gold may face additional bearish indicators, particularly after failing to break above the $4150 level [7] - Traders are advised to monitor resistance levels around $4105/4120 and support levels near $4060/4000 for potential trading opportunities [7]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices have risen for the second consecutive day, reaching $3338.48 per ounce with a 1.08% increase, driven by investor optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year [1] - The U.S. Treasury market has experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 4.9 basis points to 4.234% and the 30-year yield decreasing by 5.5 basis points to 4.792%, reflecting market expectations for upcoming economic data and Fed easing policies [2] - The Federal Funds futures market indicates a 94% probability of a rate cut in September and a 21% chance in July, suggesting strong market sentiment towards monetary easing [2] Group 2 - The bond market's reaction to Trump's tax and spending bill has been relatively muted, but Senate deliberations on the bill may lead to further volatility, potentially increasing national debt and long-term yields, which could exert pressure on gold prices [2] - Short-term market conditions remain favorable for gold prices due to strong expectations for rate cuts and a weakening dollar [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are approaching upper resistance levels, with a significant trading range identified between 3555 and 3266, suggesting a potential strategy to wait for resistance points to short [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, indicated that there may be a potential decrease in interest rates, suggesting a favorable economic outlook [1] - Yellen described the current inflation as "very mild," which could further support the case for lower interest rates [1] Economic Outlook - The possibility of declining interest rates could stimulate economic growth and investment opportunities [1] - Mild inflation rates may lead to increased consumer spending and business investments, positively impacting various sectors [1]