Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25%, indicating a cautious approach to balance slow employment growth and persistent inflation concerns [3] - The Fed has raised its economic growth forecasts for the coming years, suggesting resilience in consumer spending and business investment, but warns that tariffs will push inflation higher, delaying the 2% target until 2027 [3][4] - The Fed's rate cut is expected to increase the attractiveness of emerging markets, potentially boosting foreign capital inflows into the A-share market, while also providing more room for domestic monetary policy [3][4] Group 2 - Investors should not react impulsively to the rate cut, as inflation is not expected to reach the target until 2027, indicating that global liquidity will not become immediately loose [4][5] - Focus should be on sectors supported by domestic policies and solid fundamentals, particularly technology growth sectors sensitive to funding costs and those benefiting from domestic demand recovery [4][5] - The rate cut signals a clear easing stance, but the approach will be measured, suggesting that long-term investors should monitor domestic economic data and industry fundamentals rather than making hasty adjustments [5]

尽管对欧盟商品关税的担忧犹存，但得益于与美国的贸易协议，以及德国等国的财政支持，欧元区经济 前景稳定。预计2025年和2026年GDP将分别增长1.1%和1.2%。超过47%的受访者预计年底前不会再有降 息。而上个月，近60%的经济学家仍预测会再次降息。欧洲央行的利率目前正处于1.75%至2.25%的中性 区间中点，加上通胀已达2%目标，这为央行提供了维持利率不变的充分理由。Nomura首席欧洲经济学 家指出，无论鹰派还是鸽派官员，都认为当下没有采取行动的必要，这与美国持续的降息压力形成鲜明 对比。 周四（8月28日）亚盘早盘，欧元兑美元上涨，目前交投于1.16附近，截止北京时间11:58分，欧元兑美 元报价1.1643，涨幅0.07%，上一交易日欧元兑美元收盘为1.1635。路透最新调查显示，72位经济学家 中高达46位预测欧洲央行将在9月会议上维持2.00%的存款利率不变，这与此前大多数人预测下月降息 的观点截然相反。 欧元兑美元目前处于上升旗理形态中，汇价沿着50日均线向上整理。技术指标显示汇价维持中性震荡格 局，RSI指标在中性轴附近徘徊，显示多空动能均衡。上行突破需关注8月19日高点1.1692，若 ...

日本央行委员：通胀达标或早于预期 应尽快考虑加息 金十数据6月25日讯，日本央行审议委员田村直树周三在福岛县对企业界人士发表演讲时表示，日本央 行应尽快考虑进一步加息，因为通胀有可能比预期更早达到目标。他表示："我的基本想法是，央行将 不带任何先入为主的分析数据和各种信息，根据经济活动和物价的改善情况，及时、适当地提高政策利 率，调整货币宽松程度，不急不缓。"他认为，通胀上升速度可能快于日本央行的预期，迫使日本央行 在全球不确定的情况下采取果断行动。 ...