日本央行前副行长若田部昌澄上月在一个重要政府小组的会议上表示，日本央行应制定政策，将长期通 胀预期锚定在2%左右。若台部正淳目前是该政府小组的成员。 根据周二公布的会议纪要，若田部昌澄在12月25日的政府最高经济委员会会议上表示，随着成本推动因 素消散，并有助于在2026年实现实际工资正增长，通胀可能会放缓。 "如果一切顺利，日本的产出缺口将得到改善，经济将开始出现一些光明的迹象，"他说。 若田部昌澄说："但日本也面临通胀时代特有的风险，比如利率上升。"他呼吁保持市场对日本财政的信 任。 "至于日本央行，我希望它能引导政策，使中长期通胀预期稳定在2%左右，"他表示。 会议纪要显示，若田部昌澄表示，政府不应忽视现有的基本平衡目标，同时应更多地关注降低日本债务 与GDP之比的趋势。 这番言论与他去年11月在一个小组会议上提出的建议形成鲜明对比。他当时建议放弃政府的主要平衡目 标，代之以关注债务与GDP之比的目标。批评人士认为，此举削弱了日本控制债务的承诺。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 日本央行前副行长若田部昌澄上月在一个重要政府小组的会议上表示，日本央行应制定政策，将长期通 胀预期锚定在2%左右。若台部正淳目前是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for interest rate cuts in the upcoming meetings, emphasizing the need to act before the labor market declines [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Waller expects multiple interest rate cuts in the coming months [1] - He believes that the inflation expectations are anchored and that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been somewhat stabilized [1] - The pace of interest rate cuts does not need to follow a fixed rhythm [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Waller predicts that inflation rates will begin to return to 2% within 6-7 months [1] - He asserts that tariffs will not lead to long-term inflation [1] - Other colleagues at the Federal Reserve have a much higher neutral interest rate expectation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has updated its monetary policy framework to address significant changes in the economic environment over the past five years, including rising inflation pressures and a shift away from the ultra-low interest rates seen during the COVID-19 pandemic [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Framework Changes - The new framework marks a departure from the special policy framework adopted in 2020, removing references to low interest rate environments and returning to a flexible inflation targeting approach [2][4]. - The previous framework allowed inflation to exceed the 2% target to compensate for periods of underperformance, a strategy that was quickly undermined by the pandemic-induced inflation surge [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation Expectations - The updated framework emphasizes the importance of anchoring long-term inflation expectations, reaffirming the 2% inflation target and the Fed's commitment to taking decisive action to maintain this stability [3][7]. - The Fed believes that a stable long-term inflation rate of 2% promotes price stability and moderate long-term interest rates, enhancing its ability to support maximum employment during significant economic shocks [3][7]. Group 3: Economic Environment Adaptation - The new framework reflects a reassessment of the current economic environment, acknowledging that the pandemic and subsequent stimulus measures have led to the most severe inflation pressures in decades, fundamentally altering the monetary policy landscape [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that, despite a significant easing of inflation pressures and the Fed's plans to lower interest rates, it is unlikely that rates will return to the ultra-low levels seen before the pandemic due to structural changes in the economy and increased government borrowing [5][6]. Group 4: Review and Transparency - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) intends to review these principles annually in January and conduct a comprehensive public assessment of its monetary policy strategy approximately every five years [5][8]. - The FOMC aims to clearly communicate its monetary policy decisions to reduce economic and financial uncertainty, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of its policies [5][6].

Group 1 - The average wage increase for Japan's fiscal year 2025 is 5.25%, marking the highest growth in 34 years, surpassing the previous year's 5.10% [2][3] - The strong wage growth reflects a tight labor market, with companies facing pressure to recruit and retain employees, which may lead to a more hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan in future monetary policy meetings [2][3] - The information and publishing sector saw the highest wage increase at 5.65%, indicating a significant shift from long-standing wage stagnation [3] Group 2 - Small business employees experienced a wage increase of 4.65%, the largest in 33 years, narrowing the wage gap with large enterprises to 0.6 percentage points [4] - Approximately 70% of employees work in small and medium-sized enterprises, making their wage growth crucial for national wage trends [4] - The government has committed to providing cash subsidies to alleviate inflation burdens and aims to increase average annual salaries by 1 million yen by fiscal year 2030 [5]

Group 1 - The core focus of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework evaluation in 2025 includes summarizing lessons from the past five years, discussing improvements in communication methods, and assessing the effectiveness of the monetary policy framework [1][2][10] - The "Consensus Statement" established in 2012 set a 2% inflation target and has remained unchanged, emphasizing the Fed's commitment to its dual mandate [2][9] - The need for periodic updates to the monetary policy framework is highlighted, as economic structures evolve over time, necessitating adjustments in strategies, tools, and communication methods [2][3] Group 2 - The transition from "average inflation targeting" back to "traditional inflation targeting" is discussed, with the recognition that regular evaluations of economic structural changes are essential [3][6] - The experience of living in a "new normal" characterized by low rates and low inflation since the 2008 financial crisis is noted, with the federal funds rate being stuck at the zero lower bound for an extended period [4][5] - The importance of anchoring inflation expectations at an appropriate low level is emphasized, as it plays a crucial role in maintaining price stability while achieving full employment [9][10] Group 3 - The Fed plans to complete the review of the "Consensus Statement" revisions in the coming months, focusing on the 2020 updates and the latest economic understanding [10][11] - There is a consensus among participants regarding the expression of "employment shortfall," indicating a shift in focus from merely preventing inflation to assessing employment conditions [5][10] - The need for improved communication regarding predictions, uncertainties, and risks is acknowledged, with an emphasis on the importance of effective communication in complex economic environments [11]

美联储理事库格勒：我们获得了许多人们的信任，通胀预期锚定。 ...