美联储理事沃勒：我已经明确表示，我认为下次会议应该降息。希望在劳动力市场下行前行动。我预计 未来几个月将有多次降息。通胀预期锚定。10年期美国国债收益率在某种程度上已被锚定。降息不必拘 泥于固定的连续节奏。关税不会导致长期通胀。通胀率将在6-7个月的时间里开始回归2%。我们可以随 时调整降息的步伐。我其他同事的中性利率要高得多。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has updated its monetary policy framework to address significant changes in the economic environment over the past five years, including rising inflation pressures and a shift away from the ultra-low interest rates seen during the COVID-19 pandemic [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Framework Changes - The new framework marks a departure from the special policy framework adopted in 2020, removing references to low interest rate environments and returning to a flexible inflation targeting approach [2][4]. - The previous framework allowed inflation to exceed the 2% target to compensate for periods of underperformance, a strategy that was quickly undermined by the pandemic-induced inflation surge [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation Expectations - The updated framework emphasizes the importance of anchoring long-term inflation expectations, reaffirming the 2% inflation target and the Fed's commitment to taking decisive action to maintain this stability [3][7]. - The Fed believes that a stable long-term inflation rate of 2% promotes price stability and moderate long-term interest rates, enhancing its ability to support maximum employment during significant economic shocks [3][7]. Group 3: Economic Environment Adaptation - The new framework reflects a reassessment of the current economic environment, acknowledging that the pandemic and subsequent stimulus measures have led to the most severe inflation pressures in decades, fundamentally altering the monetary policy landscape [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that, despite a significant easing of inflation pressures and the Fed's plans to lower interest rates, it is unlikely that rates will return to the ultra-low levels seen before the pandemic due to structural changes in the economy and increased government borrowing [5][6]. Group 4: Review and Transparency - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) intends to review these principles annually in January and conduct a comprehensive public assessment of its monetary policy strategy approximately every five years [5][8]. - The FOMC aims to clearly communicate its monetary policy decisions to reduce economic and financial uncertainty, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of its policies [5][6].

Group 1 - The average wage increase for Japan's fiscal year 2025 is 5.25%, marking the highest growth in 34 years, surpassing the previous year's 5.10% [2][3] - The strong wage growth reflects a tight labor market, with companies facing pressure to recruit and retain employees, which may lead to a more hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan in future monetary policy meetings [2][3] - The information and publishing sector saw the highest wage increase at 5.65%, indicating a significant shift from long-standing wage stagnation [3] Group 2 - Small business employees experienced a wage increase of 4.65%, the largest in 33 years, narrowing the wage gap with large enterprises to 0.6 percentage points [4] - Approximately 70% of employees work in small and medium-sized enterprises, making their wage growth crucial for national wage trends [4] - The government has committed to providing cash subsidies to alleviate inflation burdens and aims to increase average annual salaries by 1 million yen by fiscal year 2030 [5]

Group 1 - The core focus of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework evaluation in 2025 includes summarizing lessons from the past five years, discussing improvements in communication methods, and assessing the effectiveness of the monetary policy framework [1][2][10] - The "Consensus Statement" established in 2012 set a 2% inflation target and has remained unchanged, emphasizing the Fed's commitment to its dual mandate [2][9] - The need for periodic updates to the monetary policy framework is highlighted, as economic structures evolve over time, necessitating adjustments in strategies, tools, and communication methods [2][3] Group 2 - The transition from "average inflation targeting" back to "traditional inflation targeting" is discussed, with the recognition that regular evaluations of economic structural changes are essential [3][6] - The experience of living in a "new normal" characterized by low rates and low inflation since the 2008 financial crisis is noted, with the federal funds rate being stuck at the zero lower bound for an extended period [4][5] - The importance of anchoring inflation expectations at an appropriate low level is emphasized, as it plays a crucial role in maintaining price stability while achieving full employment [9][10] Group 3 - The Fed plans to complete the review of the "Consensus Statement" revisions in the coming months, focusing on the 2020 updates and the latest economic understanding [10][11] - There is a consensus among participants regarding the expression of "employment shortfall," indicating a shift in focus from merely preventing inflation to assessing employment conditions [5][10] - The need for improved communication regarding predictions, uncertainties, and risks is acknowledged, with an emphasis on the importance of effective communication in complex economic environments [11]

美联储理事库格勒：我们获得了许多人们的信任，通胀预期锚定。 ...