美东时间22日周五的杰克逊霍尔央行年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔宣布，联储更新货币政策运行框架，以 此应对过去五年经济环境的重大变化，包括通胀压力回升和短期利率远离零这一超低水平的新局面。 这一框架更新反映出，美联储的政策较2020年新冠疫情时期有了重大转变。新框架取消了针对低利率环 境的特殊表述，回归灵活通胀目标制，并放弃了此前的"补偿性"通胀策略。鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会的 经济研讨会上表示， 美联储"致力于采取有力行动确保长期通胀预期锚定。" 美联储此前公布的7月上次会议纪要已透露，正在制定新的框架，旨在"在广泛经济条件下保持稳健 性。" 此次调整承认了，2020年所制定框架很快被新冠疫情所颠覆的现实。 疫情于2020年春季爆发，促使美联储和美国政府推出大规模刺激措施，但很快导致通胀升至几十年来最 高水平，使美联储走上了一条与2020年框架目标几乎毫不相关的政策路径。 当前美联储的政策利率联邦基金利率目标区间为4.25%-4.50%，远高于疫情前水平。分析师认为，由于 经济结构变化和政府借贷大幅增加，美联储难以回到疫情前的低利率环境。 放弃"补偿性"通胀策略 美联储正式告别了2020年采用的特殊政策框架。鲍威尔 ...

Group 1 - The average wage increase for Japan's fiscal year 2025 is 5.25%, marking the highest growth in 34 years, surpassing the previous year's 5.10% [2][3] - The strong wage growth reflects a tight labor market, with companies facing pressure to recruit and retain employees, which may lead to a more hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan in future monetary policy meetings [2][3] - The information and publishing sector saw the highest wage increase at 5.65%, indicating a significant shift from long-standing wage stagnation [3] Group 2 - Small business employees experienced a wage increase of 4.65%, the largest in 33 years, narrowing the wage gap with large enterprises to 0.6 percentage points [4] - Approximately 70% of employees work in small and medium-sized enterprises, making their wage growth crucial for national wage trends [4] - The government has committed to providing cash subsidies to alleviate inflation burdens and aims to increase average annual salaries by 1 million yen by fiscal year 2030 [5]

Group 1 - The core focus of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework evaluation in 2025 includes summarizing lessons from the past five years, discussing improvements in communication methods, and assessing the effectiveness of the monetary policy framework [1][2][10] - The "Consensus Statement" established in 2012 set a 2% inflation target and has remained unchanged, emphasizing the Fed's commitment to its dual mandate [2][9] - The need for periodic updates to the monetary policy framework is highlighted, as economic structures evolve over time, necessitating adjustments in strategies, tools, and communication methods [2][3] Group 2 - The transition from "average inflation targeting" back to "traditional inflation targeting" is discussed, with the recognition that regular evaluations of economic structural changes are essential [3][6] - The experience of living in a "new normal" characterized by low rates and low inflation since the 2008 financial crisis is noted, with the federal funds rate being stuck at the zero lower bound for an extended period [4][5] - The importance of anchoring inflation expectations at an appropriate low level is emphasized, as it plays a crucial role in maintaining price stability while achieving full employment [9][10] Group 3 - The Fed plans to complete the review of the "Consensus Statement" revisions in the coming months, focusing on the 2020 updates and the latest economic understanding [10][11] - There is a consensus among participants regarding the expression of "employment shortfall," indicating a shift in focus from merely preventing inflation to assessing employment conditions [5][10] - The need for improved communication regarding predictions, uncertainties, and risks is acknowledged, with an emphasis on the importance of effective communication in complex economic environments [11]