Group 1 - The recent tax and spending legislation highlights the long-term challenges facing the U.S. fiscal outlook [1] - The combination of the tax legislation and the extension of previous tax cuts is likely to keep the government's total deficit above 7% of GDP [1] - By 2029, the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise to 135% [1]

惠誉评级：这一税收法案和先前减税措施的延长相结合，很可能使政府总赤字保持在GDP的7%以上， 并在2029年将债务与GDP之比推高至135%。 ...

智通财经7月16日电，巴西财政部预计总债务与GDP之比将呈上升趋势，直至2028年达到84.3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings indicates that the actual interest rates paid by the Japanese government on its debt have risen more gradually and remain below inflation levels, which has supported the decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio [1] Group 1 - The gradual increase in actual interest rates is a key factor in managing Japan's debt levels [1] - The current interest rates being lower than inflation is a significant aspect of the economic environment [1] - The decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio is positively influenced by these factors [1]

Core Insights - Canada is expected to increase defense spending to meet NATO's requirement of 2% of GDP, leading to a wider fiscal deficit for the current fiscal year [1] - The deficit for the fiscal year 2025-2026 is projected to rise from CAD 56 billion to CAD 62 billion, according to the Liberal Party's spring campaign platform [1] - If the government aims for higher spending targets, the debt-to-GDP ratio may exceed 60%, reminiscent of the fiscal crisis Canada faced in the 1990s [1]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about fiscal balance are not limited to the United States, with Japan's recent bond auction demand hitting a 10-year low, indicating broader global debt worries [1] Group 1: Debt Levels - The debt-to-GDP ratios for the US and UK stand at 100%, while Japan's is significantly higher at 250% [1] - In 1999, the debt-to-GDP ratios for these countries were much lower, at 41% for the US, 42% for the UK, and 113% for Japan [1] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The current environment presents unprecedented challenges for the long-term bond market, as it has not been experienced in over 30 years amid high global debt levels [1] - An increase in bond supply is anticipated in the coming years, creating a pressing need for inflation control in the long-term market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ukraine's Finance Minister Sergey Marchenko stated that the country does not plan to repay its debts to Western partners for the next 30 years, highlighting that the debt is nearly equivalent to Ukraine's annual GDP [1] Debt Situation - The debt-to-GDP ratio, which was a manageable 55% before the war, is now approaching 100% [1] - The total debt amount is described as significant, but most of it has been borrowed under favorable conditions [1] Future Financial Strategy - Marchenko emphasized that the debts are not a heavy burden for Ukraine, as partner countries sometimes allocate funds from their budgets to cover the interest on Ukraine's debts [1] - He indicated that Ukraine will continue to rely on Western support even after the conflict with Russia concludes, regardless of whether the situation remains hostile or becomes peaceful [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline next year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline next year [1]

2025年3月13日 | 8:47PM GMT 欧洲经济日评: 法国 - 分析国防支出增加对于经济和财政的 影响 Sven Jari Stehn +44(20)7774-8061 |ari.stehn@gs.com 高盛国际 Filippo Taddei +44(20)7774-5458 filippo.taddei@gs.com 高盛国际 Alexandre Stott +33(1)4212-1108 alexandre.stott@gs.com Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE Paris Branch James Moberly +44(20)7774-9444 james.r.moberly@gs.com 高盛国际 Niklas Garnadt +44(20)7051-7722 niklas.garnadt@gs.com 高盛国际 现在预计法国的借贷利率约为4%，这意味着未来几年法国的利率-增速差将明显恶 化。因此，稳定债务与GDP之比所需的基本财政收支将从GDP的0%增加到1%左 右,而这是法国在战后时期很少能够达到的水平。有鉴于此，我们预计到2030年 代初,政府债务与GD ...