Core Viewpoint - China Shipbuilding Defense, a listed company under China Shipbuilding Group, is positioned to benefit from a tightening supply-demand balance in the shipbuilding industry, with significant growth in production planned for 2028, driven by strong replacement demand and favorable market conditions [1][2]. Industry Summary - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing a persistent supply-demand tightness, with replacement of old ships as a core demand driver. The current replacement progress is just over half, and new environmental policies are expected to extend the replacement cycle [1]. - The global active shipyard count has significantly decreased since the last cycle, with current capacity at only 74% of the previous peak. Even if capacity recovers to 85% by 2030, it will still be insufficient to meet future delivery demands, supporting high ship prices [1]. - Recent changes in the Chinese shipbuilding market have shifted from a pessimistic outlook, with a notable decline in transaction volumes and ship prices earlier in the year due to investigations by the U.S. Trade Representative's Office. However, following the release of revised policies, new orders for Chinese shipyards have rebounded, indicating a potential recovery in order volumes and ship prices [1]. Company Summary - China Shipbuilding Defense's core business is shipbuilding, which accounted for 92% of its revenue in the first half of 2025. The company is expected to see significant production increases in 2028, with Huangpu Wenchong and Guangzhou Shipyard International projected to have production increases of 58% and 34%, respectively, in CGT terms [2]. - The company benefits from a favorable cost structure, as many current orders were signed during a price upcycle in 2021, while steel procurement costs are declining. This creates a positive margin environment for the company [2]. - China Shipbuilding Group is actively addressing competition issues within the industry, with a commitment to resolve competition between Huangpu Wenchong and China Shipbuilding within five years, which is a key development to monitor [2]. - The company has been rated "Buy" due to its expected performance in the global shipbuilding cycle and capacity release, with projected net profits of 1.1 billion, 1.7 billion, and 2.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 18, 11, and 7 times [2].

Core Viewpoint - Shunwan Hongyuan initiates coverage on China Shipbuilding Defense (600685) with a "Buy" rating, citing benefits from the global shipbuilding cycle and capacity release, projecting net profits of 1.1 billion, 1.7 billion, and 2.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 11, and 7, and a current market value/order book ratio of 0.42, significantly below the 10-year average of 0.53, indicating substantial room for valuation recovery [1] Industry Overview - The shipbuilding industry continues to experience a tight supply-demand balance, driven by the need for replacing aging vessels, with the replacement progress just over half, and new environmental policies potentially extending the replacement cycle. The number of active shipyards has significantly decreased, with current capacity at only 74% of the previous peak, indicating that even a recovery to 85% by 2030 will not meet future delivery demands, thus supporting high ship prices [2] Market Dynamics - Since the beginning of the year, negative factors affecting the Chinese shipbuilding market have changed. Following investigations by the U.S. Trade Representative's Office under Section 301, shipowners adopted a wait-and-see approach, leading to a significant drop in transaction volumes and declining ship prices. However, with the release of the initial Section 301 proposal in February 2025, new ship orders from China surpassed those from South Korea in March, and the second version of the proposal in April showed notable easing, suggesting a potential recovery in order volumes and ship prices [3] Company Performance - The production plan for 2028 shows a significant increase compared to 2027, with Clarkson data indicating a 58% and 34% increase in CGT terms for Huangpu Wenchong and Guangzhou Shipyard International, respectively. In monetary terms, the increases are 61% and 41%. Most current orders were signed during the price upcycle that began in 2021, and with steel procurement costs declining, the company is positioned for substantial performance elasticity due to the combination of capacity release and margin improvement [4] Competitive Landscape - China Shipbuilding Group is focused on addressing issues of intra-industry competition, having committed to resolving competition between Huangpu Wenchong and China Shipbuilding within five years, with future progress being closely monitored [5]

美国贸易代表办公室根据301条款对中国在海事、物流和造船领域进行调查并发布了政策公告，受制于 此，年初以来船东观望情绪强，造船市场成交量大幅下降，船价阴跌。2025年2月301初版方案出台后中 国新签造船订单在3月被韩国超过，4月301第二版方案较前一版已有明显松动，中国船厂新接订单量也 在月度层面重回第一水平，此前积压的造船需求有望释放，重新带动订单量及船价上行。 公司2028年排产较2027年提升幅度较大，远期业绩弹性充足 智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，首次覆盖中船防务(00317)给予"买入"评级。公司受益于全球 造船周期上行与自身产能释放，预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别为11、17、28亿元，对应PE分别为 18、11、7倍，当前市值/手持订单金额(PO)为0.42倍，显著低于近10年均值(0.53倍)，处于历史低位。结 合高价订单交付提速、老船替换需求充足及同业竞争解决预期，公司业绩弹性与估值修复空间充足。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 造船业供需紧张格局持续存在 需求端，老船替换为核心主线，全船型替换进度刚过半，替换需求充足，本轮新增环保政策影响，替换 周期有望拉长。供给端，上轮周期后 ...