证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2026 年 02 月 11 日 AI 驱动 DRAM 与逻辑资本开支高增，中国投资重心向逻辑芯片切换 分业务：1）半导体生产设备部门：营收 3851 亿日元，同比-24.6%/环比-15.4%， 其中 DRAM/NVM/非存储芯片（逻辑、代工、其他）营收分别为 1386/308/2157 亿日元，占比 36%/8%/56%，环比+9pcts/-6pcts/-3pcts；2）售后服务业务：营 收 1616 亿日元，同比+14.2%/环比+0.8%，主要系客户稼动率提高，备件业务 表现坚挺，且继第二季度后，改造项目依然维持高水平。分地区：1）中国大陆 地区：收入 1755 亿日元，同比-37.2%/环比-30.9%，占比 31.8%/环比-8pcts； 2）中国台湾地区：收入 1119 亿日元，同比-6.2%/环比-6.5%，占比 20.3%/环 比+1pct；3）韩国：收入 1497 亿日元，同比+30.7%/环比+13%，占比 27.1%/ 环比+6pcts；4）日本：收入 393 亿日元，同比-13.2%/环比-25.7%，占比 7.1%/ 环比-1pct；5）北美地区：收 ...

数据显示，2025年第四季度，ASML实现净销售额97亿欧元，毛利率为52.2%，净利润达28亿欧 元；第四季度的新增订单金额为132亿欧元，其中74亿欧元为EUV光刻机订单。2025年第四季度 ASML的净销售额为97亿欧元，其中包括确认两台高数值孔径（High NA）系统的收入。 如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 今天，荷兰光刻机巨头ASML发布了最新季度的财报。 统计2025年的数据，ASML 全年净销售额达327亿欧元，毛利率为52.8%，净利润为96亿欧元。 2025 第 四 季 度 的 新 增 订 单 金 额 达 到 132 亿 欧 元 ， 其 中 74 亿 欧 元 为 EUV 订 单 。 截 至 2025 年 末 ， ASML未交付订单总额为388亿欧元，其中255亿欧元为EUV订单。 ASML进一步指出，"这一趋势正转化为先进制程客户对产能的需求，涵盖逻辑芯片和存储芯片领 域，并带动对我们最先进技术（尤其是 EUV）的需求增长。近几个月来，DRAM和逻辑芯片客 户均在加速其产能规划，并与ASML展开相关合作。" "整体来看，市场呈现积极态势，对人工智能带来的需求持肯定态度，并为短期内的 ...

Core Viewpoint - ASML expects that total net sales in 2026 will not be lower than in 2025, driven by growth in EUV business due to demand for advanced DRAM and cutting-edge logic chips, while DUV business is expected to decline due to dynamics with Chinese customers [1][3] Financial Guidance - The company projects total net sales of approximately €32.5 billion for 2025, with a gross margin of about 52% [1] - The long-term financial target for 2030 is set between €44 billion and €60 billion, with a gross margin target of 56% to 60% [2] Market Dynamics - AI's positive momentum is expanding to more logic and DRAM customers, which not only broadens the customer base but also ensures capacity to meet future market demand [1][3] - The company has been preparing for growth for several quarters and is closely monitoring market dynamics to ensure it can meet demand [1][9] Customer Insights - The visibility regarding the Chinese market for 2026 is expected to return to more reasonable business levels after an unusually high cycle in the past 2-3 years [4] - The company acknowledges that while recent positive news has reduced uncertainty, it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions about the specific impact on 2026 [3][7] Order Trends - Recent months have seen strong order intake, but the distribution of orders is not linear, and it is premature to discuss expectations for 2027 [5][6] - A significant portion of the backlog orders is expected to be delivered after 2026, which complicates predictions for that year [9] Production Capacity - The company is confident in its ability to meet future EUV demand, having prepared for growth and planned long-term capacity [9][10] - The transition from 6F² to 4F² in DRAM architecture is not expected to negatively impact EUV layer counts, as more complex structures will require additional lithography layers [6][7] Gross Margin Insights - The gross margin guidance is influenced by high sales volumes and product mix, with expectations for improvements in the fourth quarter [8][15] - The company anticipates that the growth in EUV and low NA EUV will positively impact gross margins, despite some dilution from High NA tools [16][22] AI and Technology Developments - The increasing involvement of AI applications is expected to drive demand for advanced logic and DRAM, although the full impact may not be realized until after 2026 [18][25] - The company is optimistic about the potential of its new XT:260 product, which supports 3D integration and is expected to significantly enhance productivity [14] Operational Efficiency - The company is focused on improving organizational efficiency and managing R&D expenses effectively to enhance value [23][24] - Inventory levels have increased due to the long lead times associated with High NA systems, but efforts are being made to shorten cycle times to reduce working capital [26]