逻辑芯片
Search documents
阿斯麦(ASML.US)Q3电话会:预计EUV业务将实现增长 维持2030年财务目标
智通财经网· 2025-10-16 12:15
Core Viewpoint - ASML expects that total net sales in 2026 will not be lower than in 2025, driven by growth in EUV business due to demand for advanced DRAM and cutting-edge logic chips, while DUV business is expected to decline due to dynamics with Chinese customers [1][3] Financial Guidance - The company projects total net sales of approximately €32.5 billion for 2025, with a gross margin of about 52% [1] - The long-term financial target for 2030 is set between €44 billion and €60 billion, with a gross margin target of 56% to 60% [2] Market Dynamics - AI's positive momentum is expanding to more logic and DRAM customers, which not only broadens the customer base but also ensures capacity to meet future market demand [1][3] - The company has been preparing for growth for several quarters and is closely monitoring market dynamics to ensure it can meet demand [1][9] Customer Insights - The visibility regarding the Chinese market for 2026 is expected to return to more reasonable business levels after an unusually high cycle in the past 2-3 years [4] - The company acknowledges that while recent positive news has reduced uncertainty, it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions about the specific impact on 2026 [3][7] Order Trends - Recent months have seen strong order intake, but the distribution of orders is not linear, and it is premature to discuss expectations for 2027 [5][6] - A significant portion of the backlog orders is expected to be delivered after 2026, which complicates predictions for that year [9] Production Capacity - The company is confident in its ability to meet future EUV demand, having prepared for growth and planned long-term capacity [9][10] - The transition from 6F² to 4F² in DRAM architecture is not expected to negatively impact EUV layer counts, as more complex structures will require additional lithography layers [6][7] Gross Margin Insights - The gross margin guidance is influenced by high sales volumes and product mix, with expectations for improvements in the fourth quarter [8][15] - The company anticipates that the growth in EUV and low NA EUV will positively impact gross margins, despite some dilution from High NA tools [16][22] AI and Technology Developments - The increasing involvement of AI applications is expected to drive demand for advanced logic and DRAM, although the full impact may not be realized until after 2026 [18][25] - The company is optimistic about the potential of its new XT:260 product, which supports 3D integration and is expected to significantly enhance productivity [14] Operational Efficiency - The company is focused on improving organizational efficiency and managing R&D expenses effectively to enhance value [23][24] - Inventory levels have increased due to the long lead times associated with High NA systems, but efforts are being made to shorten cycle times to reduce working capital [26]