原油价格在地缘紧张与供需预期交织下维持震荡整理。尽管部分OPEC+成员国暗示可能调整产量，但 市场对全球经济增长放缓的担忧限制了油价上行空间。短期内，油价方向仍取决于库存数据变化与主要 产油国的政策信号。 黄金维持高位震荡态势。中美关系再次成为市场焦点——特朗普周六威胁对中国商品加征关税，周日又 释放缓和信号。频繁的政策表态令市场难以形成明确预期，避险需求由此升温。 与此同时，市场普遍认为美联储年内仍存在降息空间，实际利率下行继续支撑金价。多家机构指出，避 险与宽松两大逻辑共同推动黄金维持强势，但短期波动可能加大，投资者情绪需保持理性。 美元走势分化，避险买盘与降息预期相互牵制，使汇率维持区间震荡格局。市场对美国财政停摆及部分 经济数据推迟发布的担忧，限制了美元进一步走强。 日元方面，政治不确定性与日本央行内部政策分歧持续施压。公明党退出执政联盟，引发外界对日本内 阁稳定性和政策延续性的担忧。交易员普遍认为，日本央行或继续推迟加息决策，令日元在主要货币中 表现偏弱。 未来一周，投资者将聚焦美联储官员讲话及美国通胀数据。若通胀走弱并强化降息预期，黄金及其他非 收益资产或将继续获益。与此同时，中美关系的发展及日本 ...

Market Overview - The market is betting on a 90% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in October, combined with ongoing geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar, which has driven gold prices to a daily high of $3,790.89 [1] Technical Analysis - Daily Level: The Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, with gold prices operating below the upper band. The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, while the RSI indicator is in an overbought state, indicating a potential need for caution regarding a price pullback [1] - 4-Hour Level: The Bollinger Bands are expanding, with gold prices near the upper band. The MACD indicator is bullish, and the RSI is also in an overbought state, suggesting a need for caution regarding a price pullback [1] - 1-Hour Level: The Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, with gold prices operating below the upper band. The MACD indicator shows an initial bearish crossover, and the RSI indicates a pullback state, suggesting a slowdown in short-term upward momentum and a need for caution regarding a price decline [1] Future Gold Trading Strategy - Long Positions: Aggressive traders can consider entering long positions near the support level of $3,600 per ounce, while cautious traders may wait for stabilization around $3,500 per ounce before entering long positions [1] - Short Positions: Aggressive traders can consider short positions near the resistance level of $3,800 per ounce, while cautious traders may wait for stabilization around $4,000 per ounce before entering short positions [1] Futures and Gold Trading Recommendations - Shanghai Gold Futures: Driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut and geopolitical risks, the daily trend is strongly bullish. Traders should avoid chasing high prices and consider entering long positions if prices stabilize around 850 CNY [1] - RFT Gold: Following the rise in international gold prices, the bullish trend continues. Traders should avoid chasing high prices and consider entering long positions if prices stabilize around 840 CNY [1] - Accumulated Gold: The ongoing Fed easing expectations and geopolitical risks, along with central bank gold purchases, indicate a clear long-term upward trend. Traders should avoid chasing high prices and consider gradual buying if prices stabilize around 845 CNY per gram [1] - Gold T+D: Following the strong upward movement in international gold prices, the bullish trend is clear. Traders should avoid chasing high prices and consider entering long positions if prices stabilize around 850 CNY [1]