在年末全球市场风险情绪再度升温的背景下，国际金价持续走强，现货黄金一度上探至4348美元上方，逼近历史高点区域。此轮上涨并非单一因素推动，而 是由美国经济数据转弱、美联储降息预期回暖以及地缘政治风险骤然升温共同催化，令黄金的避险与抗通胀属性再次成为市场焦点。 首先，美国劳动力市场释放出明显分化信号。尽管11月新增就业人数仍高于预期，但失业率意外攀升至4.6%，创下近四年新高。这一变化被市场解读为就 业结构开始松动的早期信号，削弱了对美国经济"软着陆"的信心。随着失业率上行，美联储继续维持高利率的合理性受到质疑，市场对未来进一步降息的预 期随之升温。在低利率或降息环境中，持有黄金的机会成本下降，资金重新回流至贵金属市场，成为推动金价上行的核心宏观逻辑。 其次，地缘政治风险的急剧升温显著放大了避险需求。围绕委内瑞拉局势的紧张传闻持续发酵，美国对受制裁油轮的封锁行动，以及市场对潜在军事行动的 猜测，引发投资者对能源供应和区域稳定性的担忧。历史经验表明，一旦涉及能源出口国的军事或政治冲突预期升温，黄金往往率先反映风险溢价。本轮金 价冲高，很大程度上正是避险情绪集中释放的结果。 与此同时，美国股市的同步回调也对金价形成 ...

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 12月18日，在年末全球市场风险情绪再度升温的背景下，国际金价持续走强，现货黄金一度上探至4348 美元上方，逼近历史高点区域。此轮上涨并非单一因素推动，而是由美国经济数据转弱、美联储降息预 期回暖以及地缘政治风险骤然升温共同催化，令黄金的避险与抗通胀属性再次成为市场焦点。 图1：美国11月失业率-ATFX 首先，美国劳动力市场释放出明显分化信号。尽管11月新增就业人数仍高于预期，但失业率意外攀升至 4.6%，创下近四年新高。这一变化被市场解读为就业结构开始松动的早期信号，削弱了对美国经济"软 着陆"的信心。随着失业率上行，美联储继续维持高利率的合理性受到质疑，市场对未来进一步降息的 预期随之升温。在低利率或降息环境中，持有黄金的机会成本下降，资金重新回流至贵金属市场，成为 推动金价上行的核心宏观逻辑。 其次，地缘政治风险的急剧升温显著放大了避险需求。围绕委内瑞拉局势的紧张传闻持续发酵，美国对 受制裁油轮的封锁行动，以及市场对潜在军事行动的猜测，引发投资者对能源供应和区域稳定性的担 忧。历史经验表明，一旦涉及能源出口国的军事或政治冲突预期升温，黄金往往率先反映风险溢价。本 轮金价冲 ...

Core Insights - The silver market has seen a significant breakthrough, with prices surpassing previous highs and currently trading above $43.50 per ounce, while gold remains stable in its historical high range [1] - Silver has experienced a 50% increase this year, reaching its highest level since 2011, while gold has also performed well with a nearly 40% increase so far in 2025 [3] - The demand for silver is largely driven by the rising gold prices, as some investors who missed the opportunity in gold are turning to silver to catch up in the precious metals bull market [3] - The weakening US dollar and economic uncertainties have led investors to view precious metals as core assets for hedging against inflation and risk, resulting in significant inflows into gold and silver markets [3] - The rising gold prices are attracting more retail investors to the precious metals sector, with silver being a preferred choice due to its lower entry barriers and higher potential returns [3] Industry Analysis - Despite the similarities in financial attributes between silver and gold, silver's extensive industrial applications make its risk profile more pronounced, as its price is closely tied to macroeconomic cycles and industrial demand [4] - A potential global economic downturn or weaker industrial demand could lead to greater downside pressure on silver prices compared to gold [4]

Group 1: Market Trends - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have led to a shift in investment focus towards silver and platinum, with silver futures reaching a 12-year high of $35.5 per ounce and platinum futures surpassing $1,000 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of approximately 10% [1][2] - As of April 29, 2023, spot gold prices fell to around $3,324 per ounce after peaking at $3,500, indicating a significant market correction [1][2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a slight increase in gold futures, with the main contract closing at 786.98 yuan per gram, while silver futures saw a minor rise of 0.12% [1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in consumer interest from gold jewelry to platinum and silver, as consumers find these alternatives more affordable and stylish for everyday wear [1] - Despite a decline in overall gold consumption, demand for investment gold bars remains strong, with a year-on-year increase of 29.81% in gold bar and coin consumption [5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The rise in silver prices is attributed to increasing industrial demand, particularly in photovoltaic and electronic sectors, while platinum prices are recovering due to supply shortages [2][3] - Silver futures inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks, indicating tightening supply conditions [2] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that investors should consider adjusting their precious metal portfolios based on the gold-silver ratio to balance risk and return objectives [3] - The ongoing accumulation of gold by central banks is seen as a key factor supporting gold prices, although individual investors are advised to be cautious about the opportunity costs associated with gold investments [5]