哈喽大家好，今天老张带大家聊聊投资圈居然藏着个"反向操作天花板"！管理2180亿美元的橡树资本大 佬霍华德·马克斯，用50年实战经验喊出真相：比起抓牛股赚快钱，少踩坑才是稳赢关键，这波反常识 操作，直接戳中无数跟风党的痛点！ 现在的投资者有多疯狂？AI概念一火就all in，比特币、黄金追着买，总想着"一夜翻倍"，却忘了一个 扎心事实：亏30%要赚43%才能回本，亏50%得翻倍才能填平！马克斯直接泼冷水：当下AI热潮，跟 1998-2000年互联网泡沫简直一模一样！ 决策心法 马克斯的赚钱逻辑，早在上世纪90年代就定了调。1990年明尼阿波利斯的一顿晚餐，彻底点醒了他。 通用磨坊养老金管理者大卫·范·科滕分享，自己的组合14年从没进过同行前27%，也没跌出47%，长期 却冲进所有养老金前4%。 都是能改变世界的技术，但AI的赚钱逻辑远没当年互联网清晰。说白了，"改变世界"和"让你赚钱"是两 码事，历史上郁金香泡沫、南海公司骗局，哪个不是狂热过后一地鸡毛？ 投资的反常识 再看黄金和比特币，马克斯更是直言不讳：这类资产没现金流支撑，价格全靠情绪炒。数据摆那了， 2010年底买黄金到2025年，年化才7.7%，远不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly expresses a belief that artificial intelligence (AI) is fundamentally different from the tulip bubble, suggesting a more stable and potentially beneficial trajectory for AI compared to historical speculative bubbles [1] Group 1 - Daly's perspective indicates a positive outlook on AI's long-term impact on the economy, contrasting it with the historical context of the tulip bubble which was characterized by unsustainable speculation [1] - The statement reflects a broader sentiment within the financial industry regarding the transformative potential of AI technologies, which may lead to significant advancements in productivity and economic growth [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. and China held trade talks in Madrid on September 14 [2] - Poland's president signed a resolution allowing NATO troops to be stationed in Poland, part of NATO's "Eastern Sentinel" operation [3] - Japan's elderly population aged 65 and above reached a record high of 29.4% of the total population, totaling 36.19 million [4] Group 2 - New housing rental regulations took effect on September 15 to address market issues such as false listings and deposit disputes [5] - China's railway construction saw fixed asset investment exceed 500 billion yuan in the first eight months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [6] - National grain purchases exceeded 100 million tons during the summer harvest season [7] Group 3 - The 2025 China International Service Trade Fair concluded with over 900 achievements in various sectors, attracting nearly 2,000 offline exhibitors [8] - Domestic flight ticket searches surged over 30% as the National Day holiday approaches [9] - Insurance companies in Beijing received over 10,000 claims due to hail damage to vehicles [10] Group 4 - Changzhou aims to become a "new energy capital," securing 33 key projects with a total investment of 33.7 billion yuan [11] - Trump urged an appeals court to approve the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, citing allegations of mortgage fraud [12] - A U.S. judge ruled that the federal government's directive to lay off probationary employees was illegal [13] Group 5 - U.S. coffee retail prices surged nearly 21% year-on-year in August, marking the largest increase in nearly 28 years, attributed to tariff policies [15] - Venezuela's Defense Minister condemned U.S. military reconnaissance flights over Venezuela, claiming an increase in intelligence operations [16] - Train services in northern Germany faced significant delays due to a fire in a signal device [17] Group 6 - Xibei announced a suspension of kitchen tours in its restaurants to ensure operational efficiency [19] - Reports of overseas credit card fraud have raised concerns about payment security among users of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank [20] - This week, 47 companies will have their lock-up shares released, with a total market value of approximately 78.55 billion yuan [21] Group 7 - Four new stocks are set to be issued this week in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with specific issuance dates and prices outlined [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of the collectible card market, particularly with brands like Pokémon, raises concerns about potential speculative bubbles similar to the historical tulip mania, where inflated prices eventually led to market collapse [2][26]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The collectible card market is experiencing intensified competition, with companies like Kai Zhi Le International strategically entering the market through partnerships with top IPs like Pokémon [2][3]. - The Pokémon brand, established in the last century, has a significant cross-generational influence, attracting both younger and older consumers [4][6]. - The market is shifting from a land-grabbing phase to a competitive landscape where established IPs dominate, making it challenging for other brands like Digimon to gain traction [6][8]. Group 2: Investment and Speculation - High-value Pokémon cards are being auctioned for prices that can exceed hundreds of thousands of dollars, with some cards being compared to the value of real estate [10][21]. - The secondary market for cards is heavily influenced by rarity and condition, with professional grading institutions playing a crucial role in determining value [11][12]. - There is a growing trend of collectible cards transitioning into investment assets, with some cards showing annual returns that surpass traditional financial assets [14][21]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The consumer base for collectible cards is primarily composed of teenagers and young adults, with younger players focusing on gameplay and older players interested in trading and investment [14][19]. - The addictive nature of card collecting and trading can lead to irrational consumer behavior, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of the market [21][23]. - The rise of social media and the Z generation's consumption habits are driving the rapid growth of the card market, creating a closed loop of "discover-purchase-share" [19][21]. Group 4: Regulatory and Market Risks - The market faces risks from irrational consumer spending, IP expiration, and counterfeit products, which could undermine the growth of the collectible card industry [21][24]. - Regulatory measures are needed to protect consumer rights and ensure market stability, as the current landscape lacks sufficient oversight [23][24]. - The potential for a speculative bubble similar to the tulip crisis remains a concern, with the market needing to return to rational pricing to avoid a collapse [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of the collectible card market is drawing parallels to historical speculative bubbles, such as the tulip mania of 1637, raising concerns about the sustainability of high prices and the potential for a market correction [3][32]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The collectible card market is experiencing intensified competition, particularly with the entry of major IPs like Pokémon, which has led to significant stock price increases for companies involved in this space, such as Kaizhi Le International [5][10]. - The market is seeing a shift from a land-grabbing phase to a competitive landscape where established IPs dominate, making it challenging for other brands like Digimon to gain traction [7][10]. - The demand for collectible cards is driven by a mix of youth engagement and the purchasing power of middle-aged consumers, indicating a broadening consumer base [5][9]. Group 2: Investment and Speculation - High-value cards, particularly rare Pokémon cards, are fetching prices that can rival real estate, with some cards auctioned for tens of thousands of dollars [14][18]. - The secondary market for cards is influenced by various factors, including rarity, condition, and market trends, with some cards experiencing significant price appreciation [13][18]. - The trend of collectible cards transitioning into investment assets is emerging, with some cards showing annual returns that exceed traditional financial assets [18][30]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Risks - There are concerns about irrational consumer behavior, particularly the addictive nature of card collecting and the potential for significant financial losses [26][27]. - The lack of regulatory oversight and the prevalence of counterfeit products pose risks to consumers and the overall market integrity [29][32]. - The market is currently characterized by a primary focus on entertainment and collection, with investment aspects still in a nascent stage [18][30]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future growth of the collectible card market will depend on consumer demand, innovation in card design, and the establishment of a more structured market environment [9][30]. - The potential for digital integration, such as NFTs, could enhance the value and security of collectible cards, addressing some of the current market vulnerabilities [16][32]. - The industry must adapt to changing consumer preferences and the lifecycle of IPs to maintain relevance and competitiveness in a rapidly evolving market [30][32].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of the trading card market, particularly collectible cards, raises concerns about potential speculative bubbles similar to the historical tulip mania, where prices may be artificially inflated and could lead to significant losses for investors [1][38]. Industry Overview - The collectible card market is experiencing intense competition, with major players like Pokémon opening official card venues in major cities, leading to significant stock price increases for companies involved in this sector, such as Kai Zhi Le International [2][8]. - The market is characterized by a diverse consumer base, with younger audiences drawn to the gameplay and older consumers focusing on investment opportunities [5][18]. - The rise of collectible cards is attributed to the increasing influence of IPs (Intellectual Properties) and the growing trend of experiential consumption among younger generations [24][28]. Market Dynamics - The secondary market for cards, particularly rare and limited editions, has seen prices soar, with some cards fetching prices comparable to real estate [11][18]. - The trading card industry is evolving, with companies exploring partnerships with various IPs and expanding their product offerings to include both traditional and digital formats [8][19]. - The market is also witnessing a shift towards investment and collection, with some cards showing annual returns that exceed traditional financial assets [18][28]. Risks and Challenges - The industry faces risks from irrational consumer behavior, expiration of IP licenses, and the prevalence of counterfeit products, which could undermine market stability [28][33]. - Regulatory oversight is deemed necessary to protect consumer rights and ensure a healthy market environment, as the current landscape lacks sufficient consumer protection measures [32][33]. - The competitive nature of the industry, coupled with the rapid evolution of consumer preferences, poses challenges for companies to maintain relevance and profitability [33][37].

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising popularity and auction prices of LABUBU collectibles, highlighting a trend of increasing auction records and significant sales figures in the collectible market [1][6][16] - Concerns about "overpricing" and market volatility are raised, with examples of drastic price fluctuations for the same items within short time frames [1][15][22] - The phenomenon is compared to historical market bubbles, questioning whether the current excitement is sustainable or indicative of a speculative bubble [5][24] Auction Performance - LABUBU collectibles have achieved record auction prices, with a mint green LABUBU selling for 1.08 million yuan and another item fetching 759,000 yuan, contributing to a total auction revenue exceeding 8.93 million yuan [1][6][12] - The auction on June 22 featured 69 items, predominantly LABUBU collectibles, indicating a growing interest and market presence [5][6] - The average price of items sold in the two auctions approached 76,000 yuan, comparable to luxury goods [16] Market Dynamics - The article notes a significant disparity in auction prices compared to retail prices, with one LABUBU item selling for 43,000 yuan at auction while available for only 14,000 yuan on e-commerce platforms, reflecting a more than 200% markup [15][24] - The auction market is characterized by intense bidding, with collectors showing high engagement and emotional investment in the items [12][19] - The audience for LABUBU auctions includes traditional collectors, younger investors, and fans, each with different motivations for purchasing [19][20] Future Outlook - Upcoming auctions are anticipated, with major auction houses like Christie's showing interest in the collectible market, indicating potential growth and further market validation [20][25] - Experts suggest that the sustainability of the LABUBU market will depend on the establishment of a robust secondary market and a diverse collector base [20][25] - Concerns about the potential for market overheating and the need for a return to the intrinsic value of collectibles are emphasized, suggesting a cautious approach to future investments [24][25]