2025 年 04 月 10 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2024 年完成股票激励一期解锁条件，2025 年加 速转型前景光明 ——潍柴动力（000338）公司动态研究 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/09 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 潍柴动力 | -10.2% | 1.7% | -11.0% | | 沪深 300 | -6.5% | -2.5% | 4.3% | 2025 年 3 月 27 日晚，潍柴动力发布 2024 年年报：2024 年公司营 收 2156.9 亿元，yoy+0.8% ，其中 Q4 公司营收 537.4 亿元， yoy+0.3%。2024 年销售发动机 73.4 万台，其中 M 系列大缸径高功 率密度发动机 0.8 万台（同比持平）。2024 年整车销量 11.8 万台， 同比增长 2%，其中中重卡出口 5.9 万台，同比增长 15%；凯傲收入 实 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes the company's strong growth potential driven by the high-endization of heavy trucks and effective loss reduction in light trucks [6][8] - The company is expected to maintain long-term growth momentum due to favorable policies and market conditions [6] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company reported a revenue of 95.06 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [6] - The net profit for 2024 is projected at 5.86 billion yuan, up 18.4% year-on-year [6] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 15.6%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous year [6] - The company anticipates revenues of 109.31 billion yuan, 125.12 billion yuan, and 136.98 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][9] - The projected net profits for the same years are 6.78 billion yuan, 8.38 billion yuan, and 9.95 billion yuan respectively [6][9] Segment Performance - Heavy truck sales are expected to grow, with the company forecasting sales of 243,000 units in 2024, a 7% increase year-on-year [6] - The light truck segment is projected to generate revenue of 9.84 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant reduction in operating losses [6][7] - The financial services segment is expected to contribute 1.35 billion yuan in revenue for 2024 [7] Valuation - The report suggests a reasonable valuation range for the company of 26.42 to 31.70 HKD based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 10-12 times for 2025 [6][8] - The company is considered a leader in the industry with strong certainty in its growth trajectory [6] Key Financial Ratios - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.4% for 2024, with a gradual increase in subsequent years [6][9] - The gross margin for heavy trucks is expected to improve to 17.2% by 2027 [7]