- The report discusses a "Momentum Sentiment Indicator" model, which is used for market timing based on the proportion of stocks with positive returns in the CSI 300 Index over a specific period. The model calculates the proportion of stocks with positive returns over N days and applies smoothing with two moving averages (N1 and N2). When the short-term moving average exceeds the long-term moving average, it signals a bullish market sentiment[26][27][29] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" is another model that evaluates the CSI 300 Index's sentiment by comparing the closing price with eight moving averages (parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233). If the closing price exceeds more than five of these moving averages, the model signals a bullish sentiment[33][34] - The report evaluates the "Cross-Sectional Volatility" factor, which measures the dispersion of stock returns within an index. A higher cross-sectional volatility indicates a favorable alpha environment. Recent data shows a decline in cross-sectional volatility for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, suggesting a short-term deterioration in the alpha environment[39][41] - The "Time-Series Volatility" factor is also analyzed, which measures the historical volatility of index returns. The report notes a recent decline in time-series volatility for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, indicating a less favorable alpha environment in the short term[40][44] - The "Fund Concentration Divergence" indicator is introduced to monitor the degree of fund clustering. It calculates the standard deviation of cross-sectional returns within a fund portfolio. A lower standard deviation indicates higher clustering, while a higher standard deviation suggests fund divergence. The report notes a slight decrease in divergence in the most recent week[80][83] - The "Momentum Sentiment Indicator" model's backtest results show that the fast line is currently above the slow line, indicating a bullish sentiment for the CSI 300 Index[27][29] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" model's backtest results indicate that the CSI 300 Index is currently in a positive sentiment zone, as the closing price exceeds more than five of the eight moving averages[34][36] - The "Cross-Sectional Volatility" factor's recent values are as follows: CSI 300 (1.98%), CSI 500 (2.12%), and CSI 1000 (2.37%) for the past quarter, with respective percentile rankings of 69.77%, 69.84%, and 65.34% over the past two years[41] - The "Time-Series Volatility" factor's recent values are as follows: CSI 300 (0.62%), CSI 500 (0.44%), and CSI 1000 (0.24%) for the past quarter, with respective percentile rankings of 58.18%, 74.60%, and 57.37% over the past two years[44] - The "Fund Concentration Divergence" indicator shows a slight decrease in divergence, with fund and stock excess returns improving week-over-week[80][83]

- The report tracks quantitative sentiment indicators, including volume timing signals, which show optimistic views for major broad-based indices except for the Beixin 50 index, which is cautious[24][25] - The "HS300 Upward Stock Count Ratio" sentiment indicator is calculated as the proportion of HS300 constituent stocks with positive returns over the past N days. This indicator captures market sentiment and is effective in identifying upward opportunities but has limitations in predicting downward risks[25][26] - The "Momentum Sentiment Indicator" uses two smoothed lines (short-term and long-term) to track sentiment changes. When the short-term line exceeds the long-term line, it signals optimism in the market. Parameters include N=230, N1=50, and N2=35[28][29][32] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" evaluates the HS300 index's trend using eight moving averages (8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233). When the closing price exceeds the values of more than five moving averages, it signals optimism[32][33][35] - Cross-sectional volatility analysis shows that the Alpha environment has improved in the short term for HS300, CSI500, and CSI1000 indices. However, over the past quarter, the Alpha environment remains average to poor based on historical volatility levels[37][41] - Time-series volatility analysis indicates an improvement in Alpha environment in the short term for HS300, CSI500, and CSI1000 indices. However, over the past quarter, the Alpha environment remains below average based on historical volatility levels[37][42]