Market Overview - The A-share market experienced wide fluctuations last week, with large-cap stocks outperforming [4] - Trading sentiment turned cautious as major broad-based indices saw a decrease in volume, leading to a narrowing Alpha environment [4] - The market shifted from a high-slope upward trend to wide fluctuations, with growth sectors relatively outperforming [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.34% [4] Valuation Analysis - As of September 19, 2025, the valuation levels of major indices showed that the CSI 1000 and ChiNext Index were at "moderate" valuation levels, while the Shanghai Composite Index and others were at "danger" levels [4] - In terms of industry classification, sectors such as food and beverage, agriculture, non-bank financials, and transportation were rated as "safe" in terms of valuation [5] Volatility and Alpha Environment - Recent data indicated a decrease in cross-sectional volatility for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, suggesting a deterioration in the short-term Alpha environment [5] - Time series volatility also decreased for the same indices, further indicating a challenging Alpha environment [5] Fund Flow and Institutional Interest - The top five stocks attracting institutional attention last week were Huichuan Technology, Meier Technology, Xiamen Tungsten, Guanghe Technology, and Jepter [7] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 368.507 billion HKD, with significant contributions from both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock connect [7] - Stock ETFs recorded a median return of 0.02% with a net inflow of 254.16 billion CNY, while commodity ETFs experienced a median return of -0.65% with a net outflow [7]

- The report discusses a "Momentum Sentiment Indicator" model, which is used for market timing based on the proportion of stocks with positive returns in the CSI 300 Index over a specific period. The model calculates the proportion of stocks with positive returns over N days and applies smoothing with two moving averages (N1 and N2). When the short-term moving average exceeds the long-term moving average, it signals a bullish market sentiment[26][27][29] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" is another model that evaluates the CSI 300 Index's sentiment by comparing the closing price with eight moving averages (parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233). If the closing price exceeds more than five of these moving averages, the model signals a bullish sentiment[33][34] - The report evaluates the "Cross-Sectional Volatility" factor, which measures the dispersion of stock returns within an index. A higher cross-sectional volatility indicates a favorable alpha environment. Recent data shows a decline in cross-sectional volatility for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, suggesting a short-term deterioration in the alpha environment[39][41] - The "Time-Series Volatility" factor is also analyzed, which measures the historical volatility of index returns. The report notes a recent decline in time-series volatility for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, indicating a less favorable alpha environment in the short term[40][44] - The "Fund Concentration Divergence" indicator is introduced to monitor the degree of fund clustering. It calculates the standard deviation of cross-sectional returns within a fund portfolio. A lower standard deviation indicates higher clustering, while a higher standard deviation suggests fund divergence. The report notes a slight decrease in divergence in the most recent week[80][83] - The "Momentum Sentiment Indicator" model's backtest results show that the fast line is currently above the slow line, indicating a bullish sentiment for the CSI 300 Index[27][29] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" model's backtest results indicate that the CSI 300 Index is currently in a positive sentiment zone, as the closing price exceeds more than five of the eight moving averages[34][36] - The "Cross-Sectional Volatility" factor's recent values are as follows: CSI 300 (1.98%), CSI 500 (2.12%), and CSI 1000 (2.37%) for the past quarter, with respective percentile rankings of 69.77%, 69.84%, and 65.34% over the past two years[41] - The "Time-Series Volatility" factor's recent values are as follows: CSI 300 (0.62%), CSI 500 (0.44%), and CSI 1000 (0.24%) for the past quarter, with respective percentile rankings of 58.18%, 74.60%, and 57.37% over the past two years[44] - The "Fund Concentration Divergence" indicator shows a slight decrease in divergence, with fund and stock excess returns improving week-over-week[80][83]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong rally this week, with the North Securities 50 index leading the major broad-based indices with a weekly increase of 6.84% [3] - Major indices saw comprehensive gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91%, the CSI 300 by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index by 5.69% [4] Trading Sentiment - The market's strong rise was accompanied by a steady increase in trading volume, indicating improved liquidity [3] - The volume timing indicator for the North Securities 50 remains cautious, while other major indices have shifted to a bullish signal [3] Fund Flow - ETF funds showed signs of profit-taking, with an overall net outflow from equity ETFs, particularly in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and small-cap stocks [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 28.381 billion HKD, with the Shanghai Stock Connect contributing 13.489 billion HKD and the Shenzhen Stock Connect 14.892 billion HKD [10] Valuation Metrics - As of June 27, 2025, broad-based indices such as the Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are at "moderate" valuation percentiles, while the ChiNext Index is at a "safe" valuation percentile [5] - In terms of sector valuation, industries like electricity and public utilities, home appliances, food and beverage, agriculture, non-bank financials, and transportation are classified as "safe" [6] Volatility Analysis - The cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 index constituents increased week-on-week, indicating an improved short-term Alpha environment [7] - Conversely, the cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 1000 index constituents decreased, suggesting a weakening short-term Alpha environment [7] Institutional Focus - The top five stocks attracting the most institutional attention this week were Huichuan Technology (151 institutions), Weigao Medical (144), Jingbeifang (79), AVIC Chengfei (66), and Cangge Mining (64) [9]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations and a slight decline during the week of June 9-13, 2025, with only the ChiNext index showing an increase [3] - Major indices showed mixed performance: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25%, SSE 50 down 0.46%, CSI 300 down 0.25%, CSI 500 down 0.38%, CSI 1000 down 0.76%, and ChiNext up 0.22% [4] Valuation Insights - As of June 13, 2025, major indices such as Shanghai Composite, SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are at a "moderate" valuation level, while ChiNext is at a "safe" valuation level [5] - In terms of industry valuation, sectors like electricity and utilities, home appliances, food and beverage, agriculture, non-bank financials, and transportation are also at a "safe" valuation level [6] Volatility Analysis - The cross-sectional volatility of CSI 300 constituents increased compared to the previous week, indicating an improved short-term Alpha environment; however, the cross-sectional volatility for CSI 500 and CSI 1000 constituents decreased, suggesting a weakened Alpha environment [7][8] Fund Flow Tracking - The top five stocks attracting institutional attention this week were Zhongke Shuguang (145 institutions), Haiguang Information (145), Zhongwen Online (144), Sichuang Electronics (133), and Haiziwang (123) [9] - For the week of June 9-13, 2025, southbound funds saw a net inflow of HKD 15.457 billion, with Shanghai Stock Connect net inflow of HKD 5.626 billion and Shenzhen Stock Connect net inflow of HKD 9.831 billion [10]

- The report discusses the **Volume Timing Signal** for broad-based indices, indicating a bullish view across all indices as of June 13, 2025[24][25] - The **HS300 Upward Stock Count Ratio Sentiment Indicator** is introduced, calculated as the proportion of HS300 constituent stocks with positive returns over the past N days. This indicator is effective in capturing upward opportunities but has limitations in predicting market downturns. As of June 13, 2025, the indicator shows a slight decline but remains above 60%, reflecting positive market sentiment[25][26] - The **HS300 Upward Stock Count Ratio Timing Strategy** applies two smoothing windows (N1=50, N2=35) to the sentiment indicator. When the short-term line exceeds the long-term line, it signals a bullish market view. As of June 13, 2025, both lines are trending downward, with the short-term line below the long-term line, suggesting a cautious market outlook[27][29] - The **Moving Average Sentiment Indicator** uses eight moving averages (8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233) to assess the HS300 index's trend. The indicator assigns values of -1, 0, or 1 based on the position of the index within predefined ranges. As of June 13, 2025, the HS300 index is in a positive sentiment zone, indicating a bullish trend[33][37] - **Cross-sectional Volatility** is analyzed for HS300, CSI500, and CSI1000 indices. Over the past week, HS300's cross-sectional volatility increased, improving the short-term alpha environment, while CSI500 and CSI1000 saw declines, weakening their alpha environments. Over the last quarter, HS300's volatility is in the upper half of its six-month range, indicating a favorable alpha environment, while CSI500 and CSI1000 are in the lower and middle ranges, respectively[38][40] - **Time-series Volatility** is also examined for the same indices. Over the past week, HS300's time-series volatility increased, enhancing its alpha environment, while CSI500 and CSI1000 experienced declines, worsening their alpha environments. Over the last quarter, HS300's volatility is in the upper half of its six-month range, while CSI500 and CSI1000 are in the middle ranges, indicating a generally stable alpha environment[40][43]