Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of HKD 57.90 and RMB 57.50 [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 146.86 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 5.74 billion, up 19.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on operational transformation and resource investment to enhance logistics volume and revenue, achieving a year-on-year growth of 31.2% in logistics volume and 13.2% in revenue in Q2 2025, both exceeding industry averages [1][2]. - The company is strategically positioning itself to capture opportunities in international logistics and supply chain restructuring, aiming to become a comprehensive logistics leader [1][3]. Domestic Operations - In the domestic market, the core express business volume increased by 25.7% to 7.85 billion parcels, while the average revenue per parcel decreased by 12.2% to RMB 14.00 [2]. - Revenue from same-city instant delivery surged by 38.9% to RMB 5.49 billion, driven by high external demand and internal efficiency improvements [2]. - The cold chain and pharmaceutical segments also saw revenue growth of 15.3% to RMB 5.84 billion [2]. International Operations - Despite external trade policy disruptions, the company's supply chain and international business revenue grew by 9.7% to RMB 34.23 billion, with a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous year [3]. - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 4.3 billion on a comparable basis, marking a year-on-year increase of 178% after excluding certain losses [3]. Management and Employee Initiatives - The company implemented a "shared growth" employee stock ownership plan, aiming to enhance operational engagement and align long-term goals among key personnel [4]. - The logistics and freight forwarding business gross profit increased by 3.9% to RMB 18.74 billion, although the gross margin declined by 0.8 percentage points to 13.1% due to increased resource investments [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to RMB 11.78 billion, RMB 14.18 billion, and RMB 16.00 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of RMB 2.34, RMB 2.81, and RMB 3.17 [5]. - The company is assigned an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x for A-shares and 7.4x for H-shares, reflecting its competitive positioning and growth potential [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [7] Core Insights - The express delivery industry continues to adopt a "price for volume" strategy, with a decrease in average prices and a slowdown in volume growth since the beginning of the year [3][4] - In May, the retail sales of goods and e-commerce GMV showed positive growth, but the growth rate of express delivery volume has started to decelerate, indicating a weakening effect from promotional events [1][2] - The report recommends investing in SF Express, which maintains a positive cycle of volume and profit, and Jitu Express, which has high growth in international business [5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In May, retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with e-commerce GMV growing by 8.2%, indicating a strong online sales environment [2] - The express delivery volume in May grew by 17.2% year-on-year, but this was a slowdown from 19.1% in April [1][3] Company Analysis - SF Express achieved a volume growth of 31.8% in May, significantly outperforming the industry average of 17.2% [4] - Jitu Express reported a 15.9% increase in revenue for 2024, driven by strong performance in both domestic and Southeast Asian markets [24] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that despite the express delivery sector being at a historical low valuation, the long-term outlook remains positive for leading companies due to their market share aspirations and operational efficiencies [5] - Target prices are set at 51.10 CNY for SF Express and 7.50 HKD for Jitu Express, both rated as "Buy" [10][23]

韩轶超 鲁斯嘉 胡俊文 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨申通快递（002468.SZ） [Table_Title] 量本利正循环加速，业绩弹性持续兑现 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024Q4，公司营业收入为 136.8 亿元，同比增长 18.0%；归母净利润为 3.9 亿元，同比增长 223.8%。2025Q1，公司营业收入为 120.0 亿元，同比增长 18.4%；归母净利润为 2.4 亿元， 同比增长 24.0%。四季度公司件量增速领跑，规模效应释放下单票归母净利同比增长 0.035 元 至 0.059 元。2025Q1，行业竞争逐步加剧，公司发力精益化管理叠加件量增长强劲推动降本， 有效对冲价格竞争压力，单票归母净利达到 0.041 元，同比持平。展望后市，申通进入管理变 革的收获期，以体验和利润为先，寻求量利齐升的健康发展，单票利润提升值得期待。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 1 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 申通快递（00246 ...