Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of HKD 57.90 and RMB 57.50 [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 146.86 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 5.74 billion, up 19.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on operational transformation and resource investment to enhance logistics volume and revenue, achieving a year-on-year growth of 31.2% in logistics volume and 13.2% in revenue in Q2 2025, both exceeding industry averages [1][2]. - The company is strategically positioning itself to capture opportunities in international logistics and supply chain restructuring, aiming to become a comprehensive logistics leader [1][3]. Domestic Operations - In the domestic market, the core express business volume increased by 25.7% to 7.85 billion parcels, while the average revenue per parcel decreased by 12.2% to RMB 14.00 [2]. - Revenue from same-city instant delivery surged by 38.9% to RMB 5.49 billion, driven by high external demand and internal efficiency improvements [2]. - The cold chain and pharmaceutical segments also saw revenue growth of 15.3% to RMB 5.84 billion [2]. International Operations - Despite external trade policy disruptions, the company's supply chain and international business revenue grew by 9.7% to RMB 34.23 billion, with a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous year [3]. - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 4.3 billion on a comparable basis, marking a year-on-year increase of 178% after excluding certain losses [3]. Management and Employee Initiatives - The company implemented a "shared growth" employee stock ownership plan, aiming to enhance operational engagement and align long-term goals among key personnel [4]. - The logistics and freight forwarding business gross profit increased by 3.9% to RMB 18.74 billion, although the gross margin declined by 0.8 percentage points to 13.1% due to increased resource investments [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to RMB 11.78 billion, RMB 14.18 billion, and RMB 16.00 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of RMB 2.34, RMB 2.81, and RMB 3.17 [5]. - The company is assigned an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x for A-shares and 7.4x for H-shares, reflecting its competitive positioning and growth potential [5].

证券研究报告 交通运输 大促对件量提振效应减弱，价格承压 华泰研究 "以价换量"趋势延续，但开年以来件量增速边际放缓 5 月行业延续"以价换量"，价格降幅较 4 月扩大。据国家邮政局，件量方 面，5 月快递行业件量同比+17.2%，开年以来件量增速持续放缓（1-2 月/3 月/4 月日均同比：+24.5%/+20.3%/+19.1%）。5 月件量增速环比放缓，但电 商 GMV 提速，或因大促以传统电商为主，高客单价商品占比提升，单个包 裹价值量提升，因而单位销售额产生的快递件量下降。价格方面，5 月行业 件均价同比-7.6%，较 4 月降幅（同比-7.0%）扩大，但小于 3 月降幅（-8.2%）， 3 月以来的价格竞争延续。展望 6 月，预计件量受到大促周期拉长影响，据 交通运输部，6 月截至 15 日，全国邮政快递业日均揽收/派送估算同比 +16.2%/+15.0%，增速较 5 月放缓。 顺丰延续"量本利正循环"，圆通量价均衡 2025 年 6 月 20 日│中国内地 行业月报 线上商品销售高景气，但快递行业仍"以价换量" 5 月，商品零售额、电商 GMV、快递件量分别同比+6.5%/+8.2%/+17.2 ...

韩轶超 鲁斯嘉 胡俊文 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨申通快递（002468.SZ） [Table_Title] 量本利正循环加速，业绩弹性持续兑现 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024Q4，公司营业收入为 136.8 亿元，同比增长 18.0%；归母净利润为 3.9 亿元，同比增长 223.8%。2025Q1，公司营业收入为 120.0 亿元，同比增长 18.4%；归母净利润为 2.4 亿元， 同比增长 24.0%。四季度公司件量增速领跑，规模效应释放下单票归母净利同比增长 0.035 元 至 0.059 元。2025Q1，行业竞争逐步加剧，公司发力精益化管理叠加件量增长强劲推动降本， 有效对冲价格竞争压力，单票归母净利达到 0.041 元，同比持平。展望后市，申通进入管理变 革的收获期，以体验和利润为先，寻求量利齐升的健康发展，单票利润提升值得期待。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 1 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 申通快递（00246 ...