Core Insights - The overall trend in the real estate market shows a decline in housing prices across various city tiers, with both month-on-month and year-on-year decreases reported for October 2025 [1][2][5] Group 1: First-tier Cities - In October, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with Shanghai experiencing a slight increase of 0.3%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.1%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [2] - Year-on-year, first-tier cities' new residential prices fell by 0.8%, with Shanghai showing a significant increase of 5.7%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen recorded declines of 2.0%, 4.2%, and 2.6% respectively [2] - The demand for improved housing remains stable, particularly in the 90-144 square meter category, which is a key support for transactions [2] Group 2: Second and Third-tier Cities - Second-tier cities saw a month-on-month price decline of 0.4%, while third-tier cities experienced a 0.5% decrease, with the latter's decline widening by 0.1 percentage points [2] - Year-on-year, second-tier cities' prices fell by 2.0%, a slight narrowing of the decline, while third-tier cities saw a 3.4% decrease, unchanged from the previous month [2][3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Predictions - High inventory levels in smaller cities continue to exert downward pressure on prices, with significant interest in second-hand homes, where 37% of new home seekers are also looking at second-hand options [3] - It is anticipated that from November to December, real estate companies will increase efforts to boost sales through price reductions, potentially leading to a rise in transaction volumes, particularly in core 24 cities [3] - The second-hand housing market in first-tier cities is expected to stabilize in both volume and price, with a month-on-month price decline of 0.9% reported for October [4] - Overall, the market is expected to exhibit characteristics of "stable volume, weak prices, and ongoing differentiation" as policy support increases and companies strive to meet year-end targets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that in April, economic indicators will reflect changes influenced by external demand, with a potential state of "stable volume and weak price" expected in the economy [2][4]. Group 1: Export and Import Trends - Export resilience is indicated by a 7.3% year-on-year increase in container throughput at monitored Chinese ports as of April 27, compared to 8.9% in March [4] - Container shipping capacity from China to the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of approximately 5% in April, down from 19.1% in March, suggesting some downward pressure on direct exports to the U.S. [4] - U.S. imports are expected to rise, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in overall import value as of April 24, compared to 0.1% at the end of March [4][11] - Vietnam's imports in early April increased by 16.1% year-on-year, reflecting a "import grabbing" effect [4][11] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Investment - Retail sales growth is projected at around 5.3% in April, supported by the "trade-in for new" policy, with specific growth rates of 5.0% for dining and automotive sectors [5][13] - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to be 4.0% for January to April, with real estate investment declining by 10.5% and manufacturing investment increasing by 9.0% [5][14] Group 3: Financial Indicators - New social financing in April is expected to be around 660 billion, an increase of 1 trillion compared to the same period last year, with a social financing stock growth rate of approximately 8.6% [6][17] - M2 money supply is projected to grow by 7.2% year-on-year, while new M1 is expected to grow by 2.1% [6][17] Group 4: Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to be around -3% year-on-year in April, influenced by declining prices of major commodities such as copper and crude oil [7][19] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be around -0.2% year-on-year, with food prices projected to rise by 0.1% month-on-month [8][18]