有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/02/27 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2026/02/12 -170 5832 248911 187179 -823.81 -312.99 34.0 37.0 -94.71 196650 21650 2026/02/13 -110 5473 272475 196680 -565.83 205.31 33.0 35.0 -106.43 203875 9825 2026/02/24 270 5489 272475 277089 -409.36 302.12 53.0 49.0 -88.20 243175 10925 2026/02/25 -380 5653 272475 287806 -801.62 221.45 51.0 48.0 -76.52 249650 12525 2026/02/26 -410 5423 272475 289219 -786.94 -98.00 50.0 47.0 -69.53 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices in the medium - term, with limited supply and increasing demand. In the short - to - medium term, the stabilization of copper prices depends on the stabilization of precious metals, and attention should be paid to the support levels of SHFE copper at 97,000 and 99,000 [1]. - For aluminum, after the supply - side shows unexpected increments and terminal demand is weak, one can wait for the supply - demand negative factors to materialize and then go long. If the Iranian situation deteriorates, aluminum prices may rise [1]. - Zinc has general domestic fundamentals, but due to limited long - term capital expenditure and about 100,000 tons of supply disturbances from Iranian zinc mines, the market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - Nickel has a weak short - term fundamental reality. The reduction of the Indonesian nickel ore quota has caused disturbances, and the overall sentiment in the non - ferrous sector dominates in the short term [5]. - Stainless steel has a generally weak fundamental situation. The news of the Indonesian quota continues to cause disturbances, and the overall sentiment in the non - ferrous sector dominates in the short term [9]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the next week, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [12]. - In the short term, it is recommended to mainly observe tin prices due to large macro - sentiment fluctuations. In the long term, if there is a macro - inflection point, prices may decline significantly in the second half of 2026 [14]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long term [18]. - In the short - term supply and demand of lithium carbonate, the fundamentals are strong, and there is a large space for calendar - spread arbitrage if the intermediate - link inventory further decreases to a low level [20]. Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated significantly. The US's ability to absorb inventory is disappearing, causing concerns in the market. However, global consumption is good, and there is strong rigid demand for copper. After copper prices fell below 100,000 to around 99,000, downstream point - pricing was obvious, and there is still support from the industrial side [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum price dropped by 10 - 20 yuan, and the alumina price increased by 1 yuan. The supply side had unexpected increments, and terminal demand was weak. The situation of the Iranian region may affect aluminum prices [1]. Zinc - The supply - side TC is declining, and it is expected to ease after the resumption of northern mines after the Spring Festival. The demand side is seasonally weak. There is an expectation of zinc ingot inventory accumulation, and the spot has turned to a discount. Overseas LME inventory has increased and turned to a discount [2]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month. The demand was weak overall. Domestic inventory was continuously delivered to the warehouse, and LME inventory remained stable [5]. Stainless Steel - Steel mill production decreased slightly month - on - month. Downstream demand entered the off - season. Nickel iron prices dropped slightly, and chrome iron prices increased slightly. Inventory increased seasonally this week [9]. Lead - On the supply side, the start - up of primary lead decreased seasonally, and some recycled lead producers took early holidays. On the demand side, battery production decreased, and inventory accumulated. It is expected that the supply will decrease by about 40,000 - 60,000 tons in February [12]. Tin - Tin prices fluctuated downward this week. There are different views on the resumption of production in Wa State in the first quarter. The demand side has different views on downstream replenishment, and overseas consumption is flat. Domestic and overseas inventories have increased [14]. Industrial Silicon - Southwest production enterprises are mostly shut down, and a large factory in Xinjiang has reduced production. The monthly supply is shrinking, and it is expected that supply and demand will both decrease in February, with a de - stocking trend [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, macro - sentiment and regulatory tightening have greatly affected prices. The upstream is mostly reluctant to sell, and the downstream is increasing low - price procurement. The fundamentals are strong in the short term, and there is a large space for calendar - spread arbitrage if the intermediate - link inventory further decreases [20].