有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/02/27 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2026/02/12 -170 5832 248911 187179 -823.81 -312.99 34.0 37.0 -94.71 196650 21650 2026/02/13 -110 5473 272475 196680 -565.83 205.31 33.0 35.0 -106.43 203875 9825 2026/02/24 270 5489 272475 277089 -409.36 302.12 53.0 49.0 -88.20 243175 10925 2026/02/25 -380 5653 272475 287806 -801.62 221.45 51.0 48.0 -76.52 249650 12525 2026/02/26 -410 5423 272475 289219 -786.94 -98.00 50.0 47.0 -69.53 2 ...

贵金属价格波动加剧成为近期市场焦点。2月9日有报道指出，金银价格波动主要受海外宏观政策预期和 资金交易行为驱动，白银流动性偏紧及指数再平衡操作放大波动。这一环境可能间接影响麦克莫兰铜金 等矿业股。此外，2月7日中国驻刚果(金)使馆发布安全提醒，强调不得参与非法采矿活动，但该事件对 FCX直接影响有限，因公司主要运营位于印尼和美国。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 2月5日股价下跌4.27%至59.22美元，成交额达13.23亿美元；2月6日反弹2.45%至60.67美元，成交额 12.18亿美元；2月9日大幅上涨4.85%至63.61美元，成交额9.35亿美元；2月10日微跌0.55%至63.26美 元，成交额7.33亿美元。 近期事件 经济观察网麦克莫兰铜金(FCX.N)近7天股价波动显著，区间振幅达9.60%，反映短期市场博弈加剧。同 期，铜板块整体下跌2.77%，美股大盘指数涨跌互现。 股票近期走势 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report indicates that copper prices may experience short-term fluctuations due to inventory accumulation, with recent price changes of -4.02% for LME copper, -3.45% for SHFE copper, and -1.33% for COMEX copper. The report anticipates a decrease in price volatility and potential high-level fluctuations in the near term [5] - The report highlights that the Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is considering including copper concentrate in national reserves, which could positively impact copper prices in the medium to long term [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that inventory accumulation may lead to short-term price fluctuations, with SHFE aluminum prices dropping by 7.74% to 23,400 CNY/ton and LME aluminum prices down by 2.20% to 3,063 USD/ton [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics for lithium carbonate, suggesting a possible upward price trend [5] - Cobalt raw material tightness persists, with a recommendation to monitor downstream replenishment after the Spring Festival [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides macroeconomic insights, including a better-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI in the US for January at 52.6, and lower-than-expected ADP employment figures [9] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows a decline, with the Shenwan non-ferrous sector down 8.51%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.24 percentage points [11] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - LME copper prices fell by 4.02%, SHFE copper by 3.45%, and COMEX copper by 1.33%. Inventory levels increased, with LME copper stocks up 4.74% and SHFE copper stocks up 6.83% [24] 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum prices decreased by 2.20%, while SHFE aluminum prices dropped by 7.74%. The report notes a significant increase in SHFE aluminum inventory by 13.09% [34] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices fell by 2.82%, and SHFE lead prices decreased by 3.05%. LME zinc prices dropped by 1.93%, with SHFE zinc prices down by 6.95% [45] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices decreased by 13.93%, and SHFE tin prices fell by 18.32%. LME nickel prices dropped by 3.71%, while SHFE nickel prices decreased by 8.98% [56] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices saw a significant decline, with lithium carbonate down 16.20% to 134,500 CNY/ton and lithium hydroxide down 16.14% to 132,500 CNY/ton [73] 3.2 Cobalt - The report notes a decrease in MB cobalt prices by 0.19% to 25.88 USD/pound, with domestic cobalt prices down 9.60% to 405,000 CNY/ton [85]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The report expresses optimism for key metals in the future despite recent price declines due to market panic [1] - Supply tightening expectations remain for nickel, cobalt, antimony, lithium, rare earths, tin, tungsten, and uranium, which may support prices in the coming months [1][2][8][11][13][14][22] Nickel and Cobalt Industry Summary - As of January 30, LME nickel settled at $17,540 per ton, down 5.85% from January 23, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 0.90% to 286,284 tons [1] - Supply constraints are expected due to increased rainfall in Indonesia affecting mining and shipping operations, alongside regulatory pressures leading to conservative sales strategies [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel mining quotas to 250-260 million tons, which is anticipated to support nickel prices [1][16] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 446,000 yuan per ton as of January 30, up 1.83% [2][17] Antimony Industry Summary - Antimony prices have increased, with antimony ingot averaging 162,500 yuan per ton as of January 29, up 1.25% [6] - Supply constraints are expected to persist due to production halts at Hunan Zhenqiang Antimony Industry, which may reduce output by over 2,000 tons [6][19] Lithium Industry Summary - Lithium carbonate prices fell to 160,400 yuan per ton as of January 30, down 6.22% [8] - Supply disruptions are anticipated due to environmental assessments delaying mining operations in Jiangxi, impacting future supply [8] - Demand is expected to remain strong, potentially stabilizing prices despite recent declines [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Summary - The report highlights tightening supply expectations for rare earths, particularly due to new regulations in Vietnam and ongoing geopolitical tensions [20] - The global rare earth supply chain remains heavily reliant on China, which continues to dominate production capabilities [20] Tin Industry Summary - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, with LME tin settling at $54,000 per ton as of January 30, down 0.37% [11] - Supply concerns persist due to slow recovery in Myanmar and ongoing regulatory actions in Indonesia [11][12] Tungsten Industry Summary - Tungsten prices have seen significant increases, with white tungsten concentrate priced at 597,500 yuan per ton as of January 30, up 11.58% [13] - Supply constraints are expected to continue due to strict mining quotas and environmental regulations [13][21] Uranium Industry Summary - Uranium prices remain high, with global market prices at $63.51 per pound, supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors [14][22] - The report indicates a persistent supply-demand gap in the uranium market, with expectations for continued price support [14][22]

Group 1 - The article discusses a significant decline in metal prices across the board, indicating a bearish trend in the metals market [3]. - Despite the overall downturn in metal prices, a specific asset has emerged as a "dark horse," suggesting potential investment opportunities amidst the general decline [3].

Core Viewpoint - Dadi Ocean (301068) is actively selling dismantled products from discarded electronic devices, which contain precious metals like gold and silver, to qualified downstream companies without direct refining [1] Group 1: Company Operations - The company has stated that it sells dismantled products, such as waste circuit boards, directly to downstream enterprises with relevant qualifications [1] - The company does not engage in the direct refining of these dismantled products [1] Group 2: Market Response - The company acknowledges that fluctuations in metal prices in 2025 may impact its procurement and sales prices [1] - To address potential price volatility, the company is enhancing its metal price monitoring and adjusting its pricing strategies flexibly [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs believes that the volatility in silver prices may continue, while emphasizing that its expectation for gold prices to reach $5,400 by the end of the year still faces significant upside risks [1] - The firm has slightly adjusted its forecast for the global aluminum market surplus in 2026 from 1.1 million tons to 800,000 tons, while maintaining its 2027 surplus forecast at 1.6 million tons [1] - Additionally, Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for aluminum prices in Q4 2026 from $2,350 per ton to $2,500 per ton, while keeping the average price forecast for 2027 unchanged at $2,400 per ton [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the price of London copper has dropped by 4.00%, currently reported at $40,505.00 per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Feinan Resources, is experiencing a positive impact on revenue due to the recent rise in international copper and silver prices, which is expected to enhance its earnings through metal price differentials. Group 1: Company Performance - As of December 26, 2025, Feinan Resources (301500) closed at 15.59 yuan, up 1.83%, with a turnover rate of 4.34%, a trading volume of 62,500 shares, and a transaction amount of 97.26 million yuan [1]. - The company primarily engages in hazardous waste disposal and recycling of non-ferrous metals, producing marketable products such as electrolytic copper, nickel powder, zinc ingots, tin ingots, gold ingots, silver ingots, and palladium powder [2]. Group 2: Revenue Mechanism - The company's profitability mainly derives from the price differential in metal purchases and sales, which increases when metal prices rise, positively affecting revenue and operational performance [2]. - The company utilizes futures contracts for price risk management of certain metal inventories, focusing on balancing the risks of price fluctuations rather than speculative trading [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - On December 26, the net outflow of main funds was 1.8557 million yuan, indicating a slight reduction in holdings by major investors, while retail investors showed a net inflow of 265,000 yuan [3].

Summary of the Conference Call for Huayu Mining Company Overview - **Company**: Huayu Mining - **Industry**: Mining and Metals Key Financials - **Revenue for Q1-Q3 2025**: 206 million CNY, with domestic market contributing approximately 110 million CNY and overseas market contributing about 90 million CNY [2][3] - **Net Profit for Q3 2025**: 620 million CNY, including a fair value accounting change from the acquisition of 40% stake in Jiatai Optoelectronics, accounting for approximately 410 million CNY [3] - **Net Profit Excluding Non-Recurring Items**: 206 million CNY for Q3 2025, with a total of 370 million CNY for the year [3] Market Performance - **Price Trends**: Strong prices for lead and zinc, with silver prices performing exceptionally well, leading to high gross margins for silver-containing products [2][3] - **Production Volumes**: Domestic zinc production at 18,000 tons per month and lead at 15,000 tons; overseas production includes 1.6 tons of gold and 3,000 tons of tin [2][3] Production Insights - **Oxide Ore Trial Production**: The company has begun trial production of oxide ore, which has a higher grade than sulfide ore, but lower gross margins due to outsourcing of mining and processing [2][5] - **Kardik Hydrogen Mine**: Planned to commence production by the end of the year with a designed capacity of 5,000 tons; however, sales have been poor with only 100 tons sold in the first three quarters [2][6] Sales and Inventory - **Sales Composition**: Q3 sales included lead, zinc concentrates, and silver-containing lead-antimony concentrates from the Zaxikang sulfide mine, as well as oxide zinc and lead-antimony concentrates from the oxide section [2][7] - **Inventory Levels**: Approximately 3,000 tons of hydrogen mine inventory remains unsold [6] Project Developments - **Asia-Pacific Mining Project**: Expected annual production of 3.7 tons of gold, with production anticipated to start in 2027 [4][11] - **Ethiopia Project**: Preparations completed but investment paused due to cash flow issues; plans to secure a 1.25 billion CNY bank loan for funding [4][13] - **Cost Structure**: Adjusted production costs for gold are approximately 300-334 CNY per ton, with final product prices discounted by 85%-88% due to processing fees and downstream profits [4][16] Pricing and Market Dynamics - **Pricing Strategy**: The company sells intermediate products at lower prices due to processing costs; for example, silver-lead-antimony concentrates priced at 30,000 to 40,000 CNY per ton [8][9] - **Market Price Trends**: Recent overseas market prices have shown a slight decline, but the decrease is less significant compared to domestic prices [23] Stakeholder Involvement - **Major Shareholder Participation**: The major shareholder is actively involved in the company's daily operations and management [20] Conclusion - **Future Outlook**: The company is focusing on optimizing production processes and addressing cash flow challenges to enhance profitability and production efficiency in the coming years [4][13][16]