Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices in the medium - term, with limited supply and increasing demand. In the short - to - medium term, the stabilization of copper prices depends on the stabilization of precious metals, and attention should be paid to the support levels of SHFE copper at 97,000 and 99,000 [1]. - For aluminum, after the supply - side shows unexpected increments and terminal demand is weak, one can wait for the supply - demand negative factors to materialize and then go long. If the Iranian situation deteriorates, aluminum prices may rise [1]. - Zinc has general domestic fundamentals, but due to limited long - term capital expenditure and about 100,000 tons of supply disturbances from Iranian zinc mines, the market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - Nickel has a weak short - term fundamental reality. The reduction of the Indonesian nickel ore quota has caused disturbances, and the overall sentiment in the non - ferrous sector dominates in the short term [5]. - Stainless steel has a generally weak fundamental situation. The news of the Indonesian quota continues to cause disturbances, and the overall sentiment in the non - ferrous sector dominates in the short term [9]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the next week, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [12]. - In the short term, it is recommended to mainly observe tin prices due to large macro - sentiment fluctuations. In the long term, if there is a macro - inflection point, prices may decline significantly in the second half of 2026 [14]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long term [18]. - In the short - term supply and demand of lithium carbonate, the fundamentals are strong, and there is a large space for calendar - spread arbitrage if the intermediate - link inventory further decreases to a low level [20]. Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated significantly. The US's ability to absorb inventory is disappearing, causing concerns in the market. However, global consumption is good, and there is strong rigid demand for copper. After copper prices fell below 100,000 to around 99,000, downstream point - pricing was obvious, and there is still support from the industrial side [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum price dropped by 10 - 20 yuan, and the alumina price increased by 1 yuan. The supply side had unexpected increments, and terminal demand was weak. The situation of the Iranian region may affect aluminum prices [1]. Zinc - The supply - side TC is declining, and it is expected to ease after the resumption of northern mines after the Spring Festival. The demand side is seasonally weak. There is an expectation of zinc ingot inventory accumulation, and the spot has turned to a discount. Overseas LME inventory has increased and turned to a discount [2]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month. The demand was weak overall. Domestic inventory was continuously delivered to the warehouse, and LME inventory remained stable [5]. Stainless Steel - Steel mill production decreased slightly month - on - month. Downstream demand entered the off - season. Nickel iron prices dropped slightly, and chrome iron prices increased slightly. Inventory increased seasonally this week [9]. Lead - On the supply side, the start - up of primary lead decreased seasonally, and some recycled lead producers took early holidays. On the demand side, battery production decreased, and inventory accumulated. It is expected that the supply will decrease by about 40,000 - 60,000 tons in February [12]. Tin - Tin prices fluctuated downward this week. There are different views on the resumption of production in Wa State in the first quarter. The demand side has different views on downstream replenishment, and overseas consumption is flat. Domestic and overseas inventories have increased [14]. Industrial Silicon - Southwest production enterprises are mostly shut down, and a large factory in Xinjiang has reduced production. The monthly supply is shrinking, and it is expected that supply and demand will both decrease in February, with a de - stocking trend [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, macro - sentiment and regulatory tightening have greatly affected prices. The upstream is mostly reluctant to sell, and the downstream is increasing low - price procurement. The fundamentals are strong in the short term, and there is a large space for calendar - spread arbitrage if the intermediate - link inventory further decreases [20].

Group 1: Core Insights - The metal market is experiencing significant divergence, with tin prices surging past 390,000 yuan per ton, lead prices rising steadily, and nickel prices under pressure, highlighting a critical focus for year-end market dynamics [1][2][3] Group 2: Tin Market Analysis - Tin prices have skyrocketed to an average of 390,000 yuan per ton, with a single-day increase of 17,250 yuan, driven by low overseas inventory, pre-holiday demand from electronics manufacturers, and tightening logistics [1] - Despite the surge, there are concerns about potential price corrections as the recent rally may have exhausted some upward momentum, suggesting caution against chasing high prices [1] Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis - Nickel prices are underperforming, with an average price of 139,650 yuan per ton, reflecting a daily decline of 700 yuan, primarily due to high overseas inventory and weakened demand from domestic nickel-iron production [2] - The outlook for nickel remains bleak, with insufficient growth in demand from the renewable energy sector and significant pressure from pre-holiday cash flow needs, making a rebound unlikely in the short term [2] Group 4: Lead Market Analysis - Lead prices are showing a stable upward trend, averaging 16,750 yuan per ton with a daily increase of 150 yuan, supported by consistent demand from lead-acid battery manufacturers [2] - The supply of lead concentrate remains stable, contributing to a balanced supply-demand dynamic that supports lead prices, making it a more reliable investment option compared to the volatility in tin and the weakness in nickel [2][3] Group 5: Overall Market Summary - The pre-holiday metal market is characterized by "strong volatility in tin, weak pressure in nickel, and stable support in lead," indicating a need for cautious investment strategies [3] - Investors are advised to prioritize opportunities in lead due to its stability, exercise caution with the volatile tin market, and avoid risks associated with declining nickel prices to secure year-end profits [3]

Group 1 - Citigroup reports that copper prices have surged, briefly surpassing the target price of $14,000 per ton set recently, driven by strong buying from Chinese investors amid rising precious metal prices and a weak dollar [1] - Citigroup expresses a lack of confidence in the recent copper price trend, suggesting that in the coming two weeks, Chinese investors may further allocate funds to base metals to counteract the rise in precious metals [1] - Despite the potential for copper prices to reach $15,000 to $16,000 per ton, Citigroup's basic expectation is that copper prices will stabilize around $13,000 per ton by 2026, sufficient to achieve market supply-demand balance this year [1] Group 2 - Citigroup notes that global electric vehicle sales growth has slowed due to lower-than-expected adoption rates outside of China, with frequent policy changes negatively impacting these markets [2] - The Chinese electric vehicle market, the largest globally, is showing early signs of saturation and growth slowdown, although recent trends in China have somewhat offset this [2] - Overall demand growth is expected to suppress the growth of copper and battery materials such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt, which are related to the energy transition [2]

Group 1 - Zijin Mining (02899) shares fell over 8%, currently down 8.63% at HKD 42.16, with a trading volume of HKD 6.971 billion [1] - The company announced plans to issue USD 1.5 billion zero-coupon secured convertible bonds maturing in 2031, with net proceeds of approximately USD 1.527 billion intended for capital expenditures on the Arriaga project in Peru, while the remainder will be used for working capital and general corporate purposes [1] - Reports indicate that the USD 1.5 billion convertible bonds were fully subscribed within 10 minutes [1] Group 2 - Citigroup released a report expressing a lack of confidence in recent copper price trends, suggesting that in the coming weeks, Chinese investors may further allocate or rotate funds into base metals to counter rising precious metal prices [1] - In the context of soaring silver and gold prices, copper prices could potentially rise to USD 15,000 to USD 16,000 per ton; however, Citigroup's baseline expectation is that copper prices will remain around USD 13,000 per ton by 2026, sufficient to achieve market supply-demand balance this year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Standard Chartered Bank expects base metal prices to remain high in 2026, driven by both macro and micro factors [1] - The bank forecasts an average copper price of $12,950 per ton in the first half of 2026 and $11,475 per ton in the second half [1] - Key risks for the metal sector in 2026 include tariff policies, supply conditions, and the macroeconomic environment [1] Group 2 - The bank indicates that a weaker dollar and rising gold and silver prices are supporting copper prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank forecasts that copper prices will peak at $13,000 per ton in the second quarter, driven primarily by tightening supply and demand. However, prices may decline later in the year as production from several major mines gradually recovers [1] Group 1: Copper Market - Copper prices are expected to reach a peak of $13,000 per ton in the second quarter [1] - The increase in copper prices is attributed to tightening supply and demand dynamics [1] - A potential price correction is anticipated in the second half of the year as major mines increase production [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market - Aluminum prices are projected to hit an annual high of $3,100 per ton in the second quarter [1] - Following the second quarter, aluminum prices are expected to gradually decline [1] - The average price for aluminum in 2026 is estimated to be around $2,925 per ton [1]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank expects copper prices to peak at $13,000 per ton in Q2, followed by a decline in the second half of the year as production from major mines is likely to recover [2] - The threat of tariffs on refined copper from the U.S. is expected to lead to continued metal inflow into the U.S. during the first half of the year [2] - Aluminum prices are also anticipated to decline from current levels in the second half of the year, with an average forecast of $2,925 per ton for 2026 and a peak of $3,100 per ton in Q2 [2] Group 2 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources in the upstream, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in navigating these changes, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry chain enterprises to compile a bilingual distribution map of the Chinese copper industry chain for 2026 [2]

Group 1: Copper Market - The copper market is experiencing a clear long-term upward trend, driven by macroeconomic factors and improving fundamentals, with expectations of a tight spot market in the first half of 2026 [1] - Current industrialization, urbanization, and electrification processes are reshaping the demand growth curve for copper, with potential price elasticity expected to exceed 100% in the medium to long term [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is expected to face a tight supply-demand balance, with a narrowing decline in demand from the real estate sector and a recovery in the export market [2] - Emerging fields such as energy storage are providing significant growth opportunities for aluminum consumption, leading to a probable shortage in the aluminum market by 2026 [2] Group 3: Tin Market - Tin prices are anticipated to show significant phase differentiation, with supply bottlenecks expected to ease after the second quarter of 2026, improving market conditions [2] - However, geopolitical risks may cause temporary disruptions in the tin market during the first quarter of 2026, while a tight supply-demand situation is expected to persist in the first half of 2026 [2] Group 4: Nickel Market - Nickel prices are highly dependent on the implementation of Indonesian policies, with a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets expected to impact the market [3] - The anticipated production target of 250 million tons for 2026 is expected to be insufficient to meet domestic smelting needs, potentially reversing the current oversupply situation [3] Group 5: Zinc Market - The zinc market is expected to strengthen structurally due to macroeconomic and fundamental support, with a proactive inventory replenishment phase anticipated [3] - Demand from new economic sectors, such as renewable energy, is expected to contribute to a 2% increase in global zinc demand in 2026 [3] Group 6: Lead Market - The lead market is likely to continue a wide-ranging oscillation pattern, with a slight oversupply situation globally and a narrowing supply-demand gap in the domestic market [4] - The expected price range for lead in 2026 is projected to be between 16,500 to 18,000 CNY per ton for Shanghai lead futures and 1,900 to 2,150 USD per ton for London lead prices [4]

Group 1 - The metal market continues to experience significant volatility as strong price increases face reversals, with investors closely monitoring price trends in this sector [1] - On December 30, spot silver rose nearly 5.6% to $76.16 per ounce, following a sell-off driven by speculative trading and supply shortage concerns that previously pushed silver prices to historic highs [1] - Spot gold briefly increased over 1.5% but retreated after reaching the 200-hour moving average, with its gains narrowing post-Federal Reserve meeting minutes, approaching the previous New York closing price of $4,335 [4] Group 2 - Base metals saw a broad increase, with London copper rising approximately 3.7%, potentially marking the longest consecutive increase since 2017, driven by expectations of increased pressure on supply chains [6] - London tin rose by 3.56%, while London zinc increased by over 1% [6] - London nickel surged over 6%, reaching a 14-month high of $16,780 per ton, continuing a rebound since mid-December, influenced by signals of production cuts from Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, aimed at boosting prices [8]

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, with copper prices stabilizing at $11,000 per ton, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][3] - The report highlights the expected slight decline in industrial metal prices due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, while maintaining a medium-term upward trend for copper prices [6] Industrial Metals and Steel - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is anticipated to lead to a slight decline in industrial metal prices. Copper prices reached a historical high of $11,800 per ton on December 11, 2025, with COMEX copper inventories hitting a record 410,000 tons [6] - The report notes a balanced supply-demand situation in the steel market, with a 1% decrease in rebar procurement in Shanghai and a 1.5 percentage point drop in blast furnace operating rates [6] - Key companies to watch include Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and China Molybdenum [6] Gold - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is expected to solidify the long-term upward trend in gold prices. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 236,000, exceeding expectations [6] - Companies of interest in the gold sector include Zhaojin Mining and Zhongjin Gold [6] Minor Metals - The report expresses optimism regarding cobalt prices, with a slight decrease in electrolytic cobalt prices to 410,000 yuan per ton. The supply-demand gap is expected to widen following the implementation of new export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [6] - Companies to monitor include Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium [6] Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report provides a detailed valuation and financial analysis of key companies in the sector, with several companies rated as "Buy" based on their expected performance over the next 12 months. For instance, Luoyang Molybdenum is rated with a target price of 19.74 yuan per share, while China Aluminum is rated with a target price of 13.02 yuan per share [7]