Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has led to an increase in gold prices, driven by ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and the strengthening of gold's safe-haven attributes [1] - The long-term outlook suggests a clear trend of weakening dollar credibility, with expectations for a sustained increase in gold price levels [1] - The non-ferrous metals industry is showing strengthening fundamental support, with price upward momentum expected to remain strong [1] Group 2 - The gold stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which focuses on gold mining, smelting, and processing sales, covering both A-share and Hong Kong markets [1] - The SSH Gold Stock Index features a mid-to-small market capitalization style while also incorporating leading companies, providing a comprehensive reflection of the overall performance of listed companies in the gold industry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF Initiated Link A (021673) and Link C (021674) [1]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has invested billions in MP Materials to accelerate the independence of U.S. rare earth magnets, but global production remains highly concentrated in China in the short term [9][14][45] - Nickel prices have decreased due to a significant drop in demand and production halts in Indonesia, which may impact local mining operations [12][20][23] - Cobalt prices have risen due to supply tightening from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounts for approximately 75% of global electric vehicle battery supply [13][31] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, but future price movements will depend on downstream demand recovery [7][38][44] - Antimony prices have remained stable, with domestic supply still tight, and production expected to decline in the coming months [32][36] Summary by Sections Rare Earth Industry - MP Materials announced a partnership with the DoD to enhance domestic production capabilities, with a new magnet manufacturing facility expected to be operational by 2028 [45][46] - The DoD has committed to a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for NdPr products, ensuring stable cash flow for MP Materials [46][47] Nickel Industry - As of July 11, LME nickel spot price was $14,955 per ton, down 1.09% from July 4, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 1.83% [20] - Domestic NPI smelting costs remain under pressure, affecting the acceptance of high-priced raw materials [20][23] Cobalt Industry - As of July 11, cobalt prices have shown mixed trends, with electrolytic cobalt at 249,300 yuan per ton, down 0.99%, while cobalt oxide increased by 1.54% [24][31] - The extension of a temporary export ban by the Congolese government is expected to tighten global cobalt supply [31] Lithium Industry - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 63,800 yuan per ton, up 2.36% as of July 11 [7][38] - Market sentiment is cautious, with inventory levels remaining high, limiting upward price movement [38][44] Antimony Industry - Domestic antimony ingot prices have stabilized, with supply constraints expected to support future pricing [32][36]