节后多数金属价格继续回暖，后续仍看好关键 金属全面行情 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ►印尼供应扰动提升市场供给偏紧预期，对镍矿价格或 有支撑 截止到 2 月 27 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 17685 美元/ 吨，较 2 月 20 日上涨 3.09%，LME 镍总库存为 287976 吨， 较 2 月 20 日增加 0.09%；沪镍报收 14.15 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 1.05%，沪镍库存为 60,791 吨，较 2 月 13 日增加 0.03%；截止到 2 月 27 日，硫酸镍报收 33 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 0.30%。根据 SMM，政策端，市场正密切关注印 尼 ESDM 于 2026 年 2 月 10 日发布 2026 年镍矿 RKAB 配 额，司长 Tri Winarno 确认本年度获批产量仅为 2.6 亿至 2.7 亿 吨。这一紧缩趋势在重点项目中尤为显著：据 Eramet 官方消 息，WBN 收到的最初配额仅为 1200 万湿吨，较去年的 4200 万湿吨大幅缩减。整体市场将维持供需紧平 ...

龙虎榜机构热股 今天机构龙虎榜上榜43只个股，净买入29只，净卖出13只。当日机构买入最多的个股前三位是：通源石油（3.85亿）、建设机械（2.91亿）、中钨高新 （1.98亿）。 | 上榜热股 | 实时涨跌幅 ◆ | 买/卖家数 ◆ | | --- | --- | --- | | 通源石油 | | 5/3 | | 300164.SZ | +14.51% | | | 3日 | | | | 建设机械 | | 3/0 | | 600984.SS | +8.56% | | | 3日 | | | | 中钨高新 | +10.00% | 3/3 | | 000457 S7 | | | 中钨高新 龙虎榜显示，今日3家机构净买入1.98亿。 公司主要产品包括钨精矿、仲钨酸铵、硬质合金和钨、钼、钽、铌等有色金属及其深加工产品和装备的研制、开发、生产、销售及贸易业务等；公司旗下子 公司金洲公司是PCB微钻领域龙头，具备极小径钻头精磨等核心技术。 龙虎榜知名游资 一、磷化工 川金诺 个股龙虎榜 公司为国内领先的湿法磷化工企业，同时致力于磷酸铁和磷酸铁锂的生产和研发 清水源 个股龙虎榜 五氯化磷是六氟磷酸锂的上游，全资子公司清源水处 ...

有色观点更新220260223 钨：截至2月13日，钨精矿价格报69.7万元/标吨，周涨幅3.3%；较2025年末上涨23.7万元，涨幅51%。 钨价延续2026年以来的强劲上涨惯性，同时受到大型钨企长单报价的支撑，整体呈现先扬后稳的运行态势。 国际钨价跟涨，主要基于供应链短缺压力，作为全球钨资源80%的供应来源，中国出口管制和私采打击等措施， 导致海外原料采购难度加大，叠加海外钨资源项 有色观点更新220260223 钨：截至2月13日，钨精矿价格报69.7万元/标吨，周涨幅3.3%；较2025年末上涨23.7万元，涨幅51%。 重点关注：厦门钨业、中钨高新、翔鹭钨业。 锂：本周碳酸锂现货价格震荡上行。 电池级碳酸锂均价从周初的13.55万元/吨持续上涨至周四的14.25万元/吨，全周上涨7000元/吨。 工业级碳酸锂均价从13.2万元/吨上涨至13.9万元/吨，上涨7000元/吨。 期货市场表现强劲，主力合约价格区间自周初的13.5-14.1万元/吨震荡上行至14.6-15.24万元/吨。 随着春节临近，物流陆续暂停，下游材料厂对2月份的备货已基本完成，多数企业转向观望，采购心理价位偏低。 市场成交以零星 ...

期货市场：宏观环境利好金融属性加持及原油上涨提振，隔夜伦锡收涨1.7%；最新收盘报50065，比前 一交易日上涨835美元，涨幅为1.7%，成交量为498手，持仓量25153万减少200；国内方面，夜盘沪期 锡高位运行，尾盘小幅收涨。主力合约沪锡2603收报391330元/吨，涨3440，涨幅报0.89%。 锡龙头年末动态：价涨带动业绩，产能稳步释放 春节前锡供需：供需两淡，刚需托底 春节前锡市场呈现供需两淡格局，供给端来看，海外主产国供应扰动尚未消除，国内冶炼厂逐步进入春 节放假周期，现货流通量持续收紧，社会库存始终维持低位；需求端方面，下游焊料、电子加工企业已 基本完成节前补库，终端消费正式步入淡季，但AI服务器、光伏焊带领域的刚性需求未出现中断，有 效形成锡价底部支撑。 锡产业链现状：科技需求重塑，供给刚性凸显 当前锡产业链呈现科技需求重塑、供给刚性凸显的鲜明特征，需求结构上，传统消费电子处于淡季且走 势偏弱，而AI算力、新能源汽车、储能领域已成为需求核心增量，锡作为电子焊料核心材料，其科技 属性持续强化；供给格局上，全球锡矿新增产能较为有限，资源国政策与地缘政治因素持续影响供应稳 定性，整个行业长期维 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the tin market has experienced significant price fluctuations, with the main contract dropping by 5.86% to 357,000 yuan/ton, influenced by geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership [1] - The recent easing of geopolitical tensions and the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chairman have led to a decrease in market risk appetite, resulting in a rebound of the U.S. dollar index and downward pressure on precious metals and non-ferrous sectors, including tin [1] - Despite a tight supply situation in the tin market, the resumption of production in Myanmar has alleviated the supply constraints, and the processing fees for tin ore have slightly increased, which may improve the profitability of smelters [1] Group 2 - The market sentiment has shown positive changes following a significant drop in tin prices, with downstream enterprises increasing their purchasing intentions and actively replenishing inventories at lower prices [1] - Trade inventories among traders have been declining, with many nearing bottom levels, leading to increased overall market trading activity [1] - The demand from downstream sectors remains stable, primarily driven by essential needs, with some companies receiving pre-holiday delivery orders, indicating a gradual recovery in demand within the consumer electronics sector [1] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the short-term outlook for tin prices remains uncertain due to marginally relaxed supply and demand dynamics, with expectations of wide fluctuations in prices [2] - However, the medium to long-term trend for tin prices is expected to remain upward [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Copper - Short - term: Supply - side issues like low port copper ore inventory and low TC, and demand - side improvement in terminal orders after price retracement. Global visible inventory is accumulating. In the context of narrowing CL premium, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing with increased price volatility. - Medium - to - long - term: The logic remains unchanged. Supply - side capital expenditure is constrained, and AI - driven grid upgrade demand is expected. The bottom center of copper prices is expected to gradually rise. Pay attention to the support level between 101500 - 103000 [1]. 2.2 Zinc - Spot trading improvement is limited. Fundamentally, the tightness of the zinc mine supports prices, but the high zinc price suppresses demand. The smelting profit is under pressure, and the finished product inventory is accumulating. The global visible zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. The price has support below but is pressured by demand feedback above. Pay attention to the support level around 24000 [5]. 2.3 Nickel - Macro sentiment and ore - end expectations affect price fluctuations. Currently, the macro situation is stable, and there is support for prices before the ore - end disturbances are clarified. Refined nickel production is stimulated by high prices, but demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to have a wide - range shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 130000 - 140000 [8]. 2.4 Aluminum - Alumina: Affected by events like strikes and production cuts, the market is bullish, but high - inventory pressure in the spot market suppresses prices. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [10]. - Aluminum: The price is affected by macro, geopolitical, and financial factors. However, it has deviated from fundamental support. It is recommended to make long - term layouts after price stabilization and volatility reduction. Pay attention to the support level between 23000 - 23500 [10]. 2.5 Stainless Steel - The cost support exists, and there is an expectation of supply reduction due to steel mill production cuts. However, the demand boost in the off - season is insufficient, and inventory digestion is slow. It is expected to have a short - term shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 13500 - 14500 [12]. 2.6 Lithium Carbonate - The futures price rebounds slightly. The supply is expected to decline due to pre - holiday maintenance, and the demand has certain resilience. The inventory shows a certain de - stocking trend in the off - season. The price is expected to have a shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 145000 - 155000 yuan/ton [15]. 2.7 Tin - Short - term: Affected by the stock market sell - off, there is a risk of price correction. - Medium - to - long - term: Considering supply - side low elasticity and long - term AI demand, a low - buying strategy can be adopted [17]. 2.8 Industrial Silicon - The price stabilizes. In February, the supply and demand are expected to be weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production reduction and demand changes [19]. 2.9 Polysilicon - In February, the supply and demand are weak. The production is expected to decrease, and the demand reduction is limited. The price may stabilize and fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see during the cooling - down period and pay attention to production reduction and demand recovery [20]. 2.10 Aluminum Alloy - The price is highly volatile. The cost is the main driving factor. The supply and demand are seasonally weak. The ADC12 price is expected to fluctuate in the high - level range of 21500 - 23500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap aluminum circulation, import window, and downstream inventory - building [22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 3.04% to 104405 yuan/ton, and the price of related products also changed to varying degrees. The CL premium affects price trends [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price fell 0.60% to 24900 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 1.83% to 141600 yuan/ton, and the cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose 2.02% to 23760 yuan/ton, and the prices of alumina and related products remained stable [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil in Wuxi and Foshan changed slightly, and the price of raw materials remained stable [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price fell 0.33% to 153000 yuan/ton, and the prices of related products also decreased [15]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price rose 3.44% to 395050 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [19]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose 0.63 - 0.85% in different regions, and the refined - scrap price difference and monthly spread changed [22]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In January, electrolytic copper production increased slightly by 0.10% to 117.93 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 4.02% to 26.02 million tons. The inventory of copper - related products changed to varying degrees [1]. - **Zinc**: In January, refined zinc production increased by 1.54% to 56.06 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 51.94% to 0.88 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 36.32% to 2.73 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [5]. - **Nickel**: In January, China's refined nickel production increased by 20.06% to 37700 tons, and the import volume increased by 84.63% to 23394 tons. The inventory of related products changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production decreased by 1.78% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 0.47% to 379.86 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: In January, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 26.72% to 65.737 million tons, and the production in Indonesia increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In January, lithium carbonate production decreased by 1.31% to 97900 tons, and the demand decreased by 4.18% to 130118 tons. The inventory increased [15]. - **Tin**: In December, tin ore import remained unchanged at 17637 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% to 15950 tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 5.44% to 37.55 million tons, and the operating rates of related regions and industries decreased. The inventory changed slightly [19]. - **Polysilicon**: In January, polysilicon production decreased by 12.73% to 10.08 million tons, and the import and export volumes and inventory changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.69% to 61.00 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly by 0.26% to 30.33 million tons. The operating rates and inventory changed [22].

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in tin prices on February 4, 2026, is attributed to a combination of a supply shock from a natural disaster in Myanmar, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and increased demand expectations from key sectors [2] Supply Side - Global tin supply is facing rigid shortages due to multiple disruptions, including a recent earthquake in Myanmar, export restrictions in Indonesia, and production halts in the Democratic Republic of Congo [3] - Domestic supply is also constrained, with low raw material availability and high operating rates at smelters, but limited production increases [3] Demand Side - While traditional electronic sectors are experiencing seasonal weakness, emerging sectors such as AI servers, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles are showing strong demand [4] - After a price correction, downstream inventory replenishment has contributed to the price increase [4] Inventory Situation - Both LME and domestic tin inventories are at low levels, with a significant portion of domestic stocks being held for delivery, leading to insufficient available inventory for downstream enterprises [5] Industry Status Near Chinese New Year - As the Chinese New Year approaches on February 16, the industry is experiencing a "supply and demand lull," with upstream smelters beginning to shut down for maintenance, further tightening supply [6] - Midstream traders and processors are operating at low inventory levels with minimal replenishment activity, while downstream purchasing is primarily driven by immediate needs [6] Short-term Price Trends and Future Outlook - Following the substantial price increase on February 4, the short-term outlook suggests a "high-level fluctuation" pattern, with potential for price stabilization after the market digests the supply disruption effects [7] - In the medium to long term, the fundamental balance of supply and demand remains supportive of price increases, particularly driven by ongoing demand growth in semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [7] Investment Strategies - Short-term traders are advised to operate within the fluctuation range while managing positions and avoiding holiday risks [8] - Long-term investors may consider accumulating positions during price corrections, focusing on the fundamental supply-demand balance [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Zinc - Overseas monetary policy tightening expectations put pressure on market risk appetite, and spot trading improvement is limited. Zinc prices oscillated and adjusted. The shortage of zinc ore supports prices, but the high zinc prices suppress demand. The overall fundamentals are good, and the downside space of zinc prices may be limited. Pay attention to the changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory [2]. Copper - The expectation of copper storage at home and abroad is strengthened, and copper prices stabilized and rebounded. The short - term supply of copper ore is tight, and the demand has recovered. The medium - and long - term logic remains unchanged, and the bottom center of copper prices is expected to rise gradually. In the short term, with the narrowing of CL premium, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing [5]. Tin - The short - term tin prices are easily affected by market sentiment and may fluctuate sharply. In the medium and long term, although the supply side is gradually recovering, considering the low elasticity of supply and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy for tin prices is recommended [7]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to continue to fluctuate widely around the industry cost line. Aluminum prices have experienced an emotional surge, but they have deviated from fundamental support. It is recommended to gradually make long positions after the price stabilizes and the volatility decreases [9]. Nickel - Recent macro - sentiment and ore - end expectations affect the overall fluctuation rhythm of nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to adjust in a wide range. Pay attention to the range of 130,000 - 140,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel mainly follows the macro - sentiment. The cost support still exists, but the supply contraction due to steel mill production cuts, the weak demand boost in the off - season, and inventory digestion are still insufficient. It is expected to adjust weakly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in production and demand [15]. Polysilicon - Production enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices. Polysilicon prices are expected to stabilize and oscillate. Pay attention to the post - Spring Festival production reduction and downstream demand recovery [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price of aluminum alloy is expected to continue to oscillate in the high - level range. Pay attention to the actual circulation of scrap aluminum, the change of import window, and the final strength and rhythm of downstream inventory preparation before the Spring Festival [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The trading logic of lithium carbonate has switched, and the macro impact is greater. The price center has a certain constraint on the downward adjustment space. It is expected to adjust in a wide range in the short term [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.32% to 25,050 yuan/ton. The import loss was 2,677 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread changed [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the refined zinc output was 560,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%. The开工 rate of zinc - related processing industries decreased, and the social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased by 7.62% week - on - week [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.86% to 101,320 yuan/ton. The import loss was 236 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread changed [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1793 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. The开工 rate of copper - related processing industries and inventory data changed [5]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.76% to 381,900 yuan/ton. The import loss and monthly spread changed [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In December, the import of tin ore remained unchanged, and the production and export of refined tin, as well as the开工 rate of related industries, changed [7]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF and social inventories increased, while SHEF (daily) and LME inventories decreased [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.73% to 23,290 yuan/ton. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum and the monthly spread changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the alumina output decreased by 1.78%, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 0.47%. The开工 rate of aluminum - related processing industries decreased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.82% to 139,050 yuan/ton. The import loss and monthly spread changed [11]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In January, China's refined nickel output increased by 20.06%, and the import volume increased by 84.63%. Inventories in different regions changed [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 14,100 yuan/ton. The raw material price and monthly spread changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 26.72%, and the import and export volumes changed. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,350 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In January, the national industrial silicon output decreased by 5.44%, and the开工 rate decreased. The inventory data changed [15]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 4.29% to 53,500 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [17]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The production of polysilicon and silicon wafers, as well as import and export volumes, changed [17]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.84% to 23,650 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the import and export volumes changed. The开工 rate of aluminum alloy - related industries decreased, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.29% to 153,500 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the production of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.31%, and the demand decreased by 4.18%. The inventory data changed [19].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement informs that the current board of directors of Yunnan Tin Company Limited will complete its term on February 3, 2026, and the nomination process for the new board members is still ongoing [1]. Group 1 - The ninth board of directors' term will expire on February 3, 2026 [1]. - The nomination work for the tenth board of directors has not been completed yet [1]. - According to the company's articles of association, the current board members will continue to fulfill their duties until the new board is elected [1]. Group 2 - The company will actively coordinate the election process for the new board and will fulfill its information disclosure obligations in a timely manner [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The tin market is in a period of pullback and consolidation, with a trend strength of -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 409,000, with a daily decline of 8.32%, and the night - session closing price was 412,260, with a decline of 6.56%. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 50,600, with a decline of 7.16%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 103,163 to 468,870, and the position decreased by 8,589 to 40,079. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 657 to 990, and the position increased by 360 to 25,225. The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 8,524, with no change, and the inventory of LME Tin was 7,095, also with no change. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 428,650, a decrease of 9,950 compared to the previous day. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 423,500, a decrease of 11,800. The LME tin (spot/three - month) premium was - 227, a decrease of 27. The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive first contract was 212,570, a decrease of 37,180. The spread between the spot and the futures main contract was - 22,630, a decrease of 14,130 [2] - **Industrial Chain Important Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 414,650, a decrease of 9,950. The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 418,650, a decrease of 9,950. The price of 63A solder bar was 282,750, a decrease of 6,500. The price of 60A solder bar was 270,250, a decrease of 6,000 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - BYD's new energy vehicle sales in January 2026 decreased by 30.11% year - on - year [2] - US - Russia representatives had a "fruitful and constructive" meeting in Florida, with Treasury Secretary Bessent participating [4] - Iran's Supreme Leader's advisor said that a negotiation framework with the US is gradually taking shape, contrary to the artificially created media war atmosphere [4] - Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark, reaching its lowest level since April last year [4]