Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The lithium carbonate price increased by 0.91% to 72,000 CNY/ton as of August 8, 2025, indicating a supply-demand imbalance in the industry that may be difficult to resolve [6][42] - Nickel prices rose, with LME nickel closing at 212,232 USD/ton, up 1.51% from August 1, 2025, while domestic nickel prices also increased by 1.05% to 121,000 CNY/ton [21][24] - Cobalt prices showed mixed trends, with electrolytic cobalt down 1.48% to 266,000 CNY/ton, while cobalt oxide rose by 2.54% to 203.50 CNY/kg [25][30] - Antimony prices decreased, with antimony ingot averaging 185,000 CNY/ton, down 1.33% from July 31, 2025, amid tight supply conditions [31][35] - The nickel industry faces potential supply disruptions due to the suspension of production lines by Chinese mining giant Tsingshan in Indonesia, which may impact local nickel mining and support nickel prices [12][24] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Updates - Nickel prices increased, with LME nickel at 212,232 USD/ton and domestic nickel at 121,000 CNY/ton, while supply remains stable despite weather conditions [21][24] - Cobalt prices fluctuated, with electrolytic cobalt down and cobalt oxide up, influenced by raw material shortages from the Democratic Republic of Congo [25][30] Antimony Industry Update - Antimony prices fell, with domestic antimony ingot at 185,000 CNY/ton, as supply remains tight and production is limited due to many manufacturers being offline [31][35] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices rose to 72,000 CNY/ton, with high inventory levels and slow de-stocking, indicating ongoing supply challenges [6][42] Rare Earth Industry Update - The rare earth market remains stable, with domestic production indicators not showing significant growth, and the U.S. government is working to rebuild its rare earth supply chain [15][42] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices increased, with LME tin at 33,900 USD/ton, as supply from Myanmar remains constrained due to production issues [9][15] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices rose slightly, with white tungsten at 193,500 CNY/ton, as supply remains tight due to reduced mining quotas [10][11] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Tianhua New Energy, Yahua Group, and Ganfeng Lithium, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics in lithium supply [42]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has invested billions in MP Materials to accelerate the independence of U.S. rare earth magnets, but global production remains highly concentrated in China in the short term [9][14][45] - Nickel prices have decreased due to a significant drop in demand and production halts in Indonesia, which may impact local mining operations [12][20][23] - Cobalt prices have risen due to supply tightening from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounts for approximately 75% of global electric vehicle battery supply [13][31] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, but future price movements will depend on downstream demand recovery [7][38][44] - Antimony prices have remained stable, with domestic supply still tight, and production expected to decline in the coming months [32][36] Summary by Sections Rare Earth Industry - MP Materials announced a partnership with the DoD to enhance domestic production capabilities, with a new magnet manufacturing facility expected to be operational by 2028 [45][46] - The DoD has committed to a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for NdPr products, ensuring stable cash flow for MP Materials [46][47] Nickel Industry - As of July 11, LME nickel spot price was $14,955 per ton, down 1.09% from July 4, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 1.83% [20] - Domestic NPI smelting costs remain under pressure, affecting the acceptance of high-priced raw materials [20][23] Cobalt Industry - As of July 11, cobalt prices have shown mixed trends, with electrolytic cobalt at 249,300 yuan per ton, down 0.99%, while cobalt oxide increased by 1.54% [24][31] - The extension of a temporary export ban by the Congolese government is expected to tighten global cobalt supply [31] Lithium Industry - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 63,800 yuan per ton, up 2.36% as of July 11 [7][38] - Market sentiment is cautious, with inventory levels remaining high, limiting upward price movement [38][44] Antimony Industry - Domestic antimony ingot prices have stabilized, with supply constraints expected to support future pricing [32][36]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The report highlights that the import volume of tin from Myanmar has remained below the warning line of 10,000 tons for several months, leading to expectations of tight supply which may support tin prices [10][21] - Nickel prices have increased week-on-week, driven by traders' replenishment needs, with LME nickel spot settlement price reported at $15,120 per ton, up 0.6% from June 27 [21] - Cobalt prices have also risen, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 251,800 yuan per ton, up 0.6% from June 27, although downstream demand has not shown significant improvement [25][32] - The report notes a decrease in antimony ingot prices and production, with domestic antimony ingot average price at 192,500 yuan per ton, down 2.53% from June 26 [33][36] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased slightly, with the average market price at 62,300 yuan per ton, up 1.81% from June 27, but the market is expected to maintain a low-level fluctuation pattern [41][46] Summary by Sections Nickel Industry - Nickel prices have risen due to replenishment demand from traders, with LME nickel total inventory decreasing by 0.89% [21] - Domestic production costs for nickel smelters have increased significantly due to high CIF prices of Philippine nickel ore [21] - The report indicates that the suspension of production lines by Qingshan Holding Group may further impact local nickel mining in Indonesia [13][24] Cobalt Industry - Cobalt prices have increased, supported by the extension of a temporary export ban by the Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounts for about 75% of global electric vehicle battery supply [25][32] - Despite the price increase, downstream demand remains weak, with most manufacturers maintaining a just-in-time purchasing strategy [25][32] Antimony Industry - Antimony ingot prices have decreased, with a significant drop in production expected in July due to ongoing supply tightness [33][36] - The report suggests that domestic raw material supply remains tight, which may support future antimony prices [36] Lithium Industry - Lithium carbonate prices have seen a slight increase, but the market is still characterized by oversupply, with inventory pressures not effectively alleviated [41][46] - The report anticipates that lithium prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [41][46] Tin Industry - The report indicates that the import volume of tin from Myanmar is below the warning line, leading to expectations of tight supply which may support tin prices [10][21] - The overall supply situation is expected to remain tight due to slow recovery in Myanmar's tin mining operations [10][16] Rare Earth Industry - Following the recent US-China trade negotiations, China has partially relaxed its export controls on rare earths, which may alleviate some supply pressures for Western companies [15][19] - The report notes that the rare earth market is experiencing price increases driven by demand from major manufacturers, although actual transaction volumes remain low [9][15]