10月9日黄金股票ETF（517400）领涨，高开高走，收涨9.47%。矿业ETF（561330）、有色60ETF（159881）开盘略低于黄金股票ETF，但开盘后一路上 扬，分别收涨8.58%、8.44%。 资料来源：wind 黄金方面，美元信用走弱仍是长期支撑逻辑。当地时间9月17日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25 个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。从美国9月FOMC会议纪要看，美联储官员在降息幅度问题上存在分歧。9月会议的投票结果为11比1。唯一反对的成员是由美 国总统特朗普任命、并在9月会议首日上午宣誓就职的新上任的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran），他主张降息0.5个百分点。而关于2025年是否会进 一步降息，在参加会议的19位官员中，略多于一半的人预计今年还将至少再降息两次，但有少数人预计2025年剩余时间内只会降息一次或不再降息。 除此之外，国庆假期期间多国政坛震荡。美国方面，由于预算问题难以达成一致，美国联邦政府从10月1日开始的停摆已经持续一周。 法国方面，总理勒科尔尼6日宣布辞职，法国总统马克龙表示接受勒科尔尼的辞呈。勒 ...

黄金股票ETF大涨9.47%、矿业ETF大涨8.58%、有色60ETF大涨8.44%、黄金基金ETF大涨4.57%点评 10月9日，节后首个交易日，两市主要股指盘中强势拉升，上证指数涨1.32%报3933.97点，站稳3900点 续创10年新高；深证成指涨1.47%，创业板指涨0.73%，中证A500涨1.59%。A股全天成交2.67万亿元。 受国际金价大涨影响，黄金股和有色板块涨幅居前。 黄金股票ETF（517400）收盘大涨9.47% 矿业ETF（561330）收盘大涨8.58% 有色60ETF（159881）收盘大涨8.44% 黄金基金ETF（518800）收盘大涨4.57% 【上涨原因分析】现货黄金历史性突破4000美元/盎司大关；美国政府关门已超一周、地缘政治局势、 央行持续购金等多因素利好 国庆期间伦敦金现货黄金价格继大幅冲高，创历史新高。截至10月8日收盘，伦敦现货黄金报收4040.42 美元/盎司，自9月30日以来累计上涨207.49美元/盎司，涨幅5.41%。 美国联邦政府自10月1日起停摆，受此影响，美国劳工统计局未能按计划于3日公布月度就业数据统计报 告，非农、CPI等关键经济数据延迟发 ...

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 相关机构表示，短期看，非农、CPI等关键经济数据延迟发布，将无法对美联储官员的货币政策作出有 效指引，但政府停摆对经济潜在的影响，反而强化市场对降息的预期，截至10月8日，CME美联储观察 显示10月降息概率接近95%。长期看，联邦政府持续停摆、政治僵局加剧、财政纪律弱化，都在逐步侵 蚀美元作为全球储备货币的基础。 黄金股票ETF（517400）跟踪的是SSH黄金股票指数（931238），该指数从市场中选取涉及黄金采掘、 冶炼及销售等业务的50只较大市值上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映黄金产业链相关企业证券的整体 表现。该指数具有行业集中度高、风格偏向价值投资的特点。 ...

10月8日，现货黄金升破4000美元/盎司关口，为史上首次，今年累计涨超52%。 此轮黄金大涨或存在几个重要的驱动因素。其一是对美联储降息预期的升温，以及对于美国此轮经济增 长的怀疑。疫情后的持续财政扩张，在支撑美国经济的同时，也弱化了美元本身的公信力，这使得黄金 成为了稀缺的避险资产。 其二则是地缘政治等风险事件的持续发酵。例如，美国国会参议院9月30日晚未能通过年度拨款法案， 时隔7年后美国政府再度停摆。 据浙商证券分析，本轮停摆主要由于两党对医保福利支出"是否加入预算案"产生分歧，共和党拒绝将医 保内容加入预算，因其"会给非法移民提供医保"。此次分歧也侧面展示了美国政府债务高企的现状，引 发市场进一步担忧。 国庆休市结束后，A股有色板块接棒上涨。 在金价大幅走强的带动下， 今日开盘，A股有色板块纷纷大涨，黄金股票ETF（517400）开盘大涨 7%、黄金基金ETF（518800）大涨近5%，矿业ETF（561330）大涨4%。 银河证券分析称，节后A股市场延续震荡抬升格局，其中近期一系列事件将刺激有色金属板块行情向 上。"国庆"期间大宗商品多数走强，贵金属（黄金、白银）同步上涨。虽然避险资产表现分化，如 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Impact - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the phenomenon of "anti-involution" are contributing to a strong performance in resource stocks, with mining ETFs and precious metal ETFs seeing significant gains [1][2]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached a new high, surpassing $3,850 per ounce, driven by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and ongoing risk events. The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to central bank purchases, de-dollarization, and safe-haven demand [2]. Group 3: Industrial Metals - Ongoing disruptions in overseas copper mines have led to a supply imbalance, with actual copper production falling short of expectations. Limited capital expenditure from copper mining companies is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, potentially pushing copper prices higher [3]. - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts are expected to benefit resource stocks, as lower rates may stimulate economic activity and increase demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [3]. Group 4: Energy Metals - The lithium market is recovering, with price increases anticipated due to policy-driven capacity adjustments. The demand for lithium battery equipment is expected to rebound in 2025 as domestic bidding and overseas expansions continue [4]. - The development of solid-state batteries is being driven by a combination of policy support, demand, and technological advancements, indicating a clear trend towards market expansion [4]. Group 5: Storage Demand - Domestic policies are guiding independent storage to become a significant growth engine, while external factors such as tariff delays and subsidy extensions in the U.S. market are creating opportunities for investment [6]. - In Europe, the demand for industrial storage is expected to grow as inventory depletion nears completion, and emerging markets are also seeing increased demand for energy storage driven by renewable energy initiatives [7]. Group 6: Investment Opportunities in Mining Sector - Mining ETFs have shown substantial year-to-date gains, with the mining ETF (561330) up over 70%, the non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) up over 60%, and the gold stock ETF (517400) up over 80% as of September 30 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut signal a favorable environment for gold investments, particularly in gold ETFs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold Fund ETF (518800) rose by 1.22% on September 29, while Gold Stock ETF (517400) increased by 3.5% on the same day [1] - COMEX gold prices have reached a new high, peaking at 3849 [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut, with officials expressing differing views but overall leaning towards dovish stances [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that increasing risks in the job market were key factors in the decision to cut rates [1] - Vice Chairman Bowman emphasized the necessity for further rate cuts due to the fragility of the job market [1] - Bessent urged the Fed to consider a rate cut of 100 to 150 basis points by the end of the year [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The commencement of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve, increasing macroeconomic uncertainties abroad, and the global trend of "de-dollarization" are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [1] - The investment value of gold remains promising, with recommendations for investors to consider Gold Fund ETF (518800) and Gold Stock ETF (517400) [1]

Group 1 - The global gold ETF holdings have reached the highest level since August 2022, with SPDR Gold Shares seeing an inflow of 122 tons this year, pushing the total holdings above 1005 tons, indicating strong demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The gold stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which selects 50 larger market capitalization listed companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of securities related to the gold industry chain [1] - The index is characterized by high industry concentration and a value investment style [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to reach $3,900 and $4,200 per ounce by the end of this year and mid-next year, respectively, driven by rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, fiscal expansion, and increased demand for safe-haven assets and inflation hedges [1] - The deterioration of U.S. non-farm employment has led to a rapid increase in market expectations for Fed rate cuts, with anticipated cuts exceeding expectations next year from a neutral interest rate perspective [1] - Global fiscal expansion and rising debt risks are contributing to a bullish outlook for gold, as concerns about long-term debt supply and inflation resilience grow, alongside increasing U.S. debt and deficits [1] Group 2 - Speculative funds entering the market are a significant driver of gold prices, with recent shifts in speculative positions turning from a drag to a boost, indicating a gradual recovery in market sentiment towards gold [1] - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which includes 50 listed companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry chain [1] - The index focuses on small to mid-cap stocks with significant leading effects, emphasizing high-quality enterprises within the gold industry chain, characterized by high industry concentration and comprehensive coverage of the industry chain [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have continued to rise, reaching new highs after a brief pullback following the recent Federal Reserve rate cut, supported by factors such as a weakening U.S. economy, global de-dollarization trends, and geopolitical risk premiums [1][6]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% during the September FOMC meeting, with a vote of 11 in favor and 1 against [3]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments were hawkish, acknowledging a cooling labor market while emphasizing that the rate cut was a risk management decision [3]. Economic Indicators - The Leading Economic Index for August fell by 0.5% to 98.4, marking the largest decline since April and indicating a continued slowdown in economic activity [6]. - Market expectations for future rate cuts appear to be higher than the Fed's projections, with current rate futures implying rates about 0.5% lower than the Fed's dot plot median for the end of next year [3]. De-dollarization Trends - Central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, have been increasing gold reserves, with China adding gold for the tenth consecutive month as of August [6]. Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the lack of progress in U.S. mediation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating violence in Gaza, contribute to the risk premium in gold prices [6]. Investment Opportunities - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains strong, and investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in gold ETFs and gold stock ETFs during market pullbacks [7].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.22% closing at 3828.58 points and a total turnover of 941.8 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.67% to 13157.97 points with a turnover of 1179.7 billion yuan [1] - The market showed a trend of more declines than gains, with notable performance in the electronics and computer sectors [1] - The trading heat has decreased recently, indicating a potential structural opportunity phase in the A-share market, suggesting investors focus on industries with superior performance trends and high prosperity [1] Gold Market - Spot gold prices rose, with London gold prices breaking through 3700 USD, reaching a new high, while domestic futures saw a significant increase of over 2%, closing at 846.50 yuan [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates has bolstered gold's strong performance, with a 92% market expectation for a rate cut in October [1] - UBS forecasts global central bank gold purchases to remain strong at 900 to 950 tons this year, reflecting confidence in gold as a reserve asset, with predictions for gold prices to potentially exceed 4000 USD next year [2] Industrial Metals - Various industrial metals have seen price increases in the context of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, with silver rising by 3.81% to 10317 yuan per kilogram, and copper maintaining prices above 80000 yuan per ton [2] - The overall non-ferrous metal sector increased by approximately 1%, outperforming other industries [2] - The demand for silver remains robust due to its applications in electronics and photovoltaic equipment, while the green energy transition and AI growth provide stable demand for copper [2] Rare Earth Market - China's strengthened export controls on rare earths have led to increased overseas restocking orders and rising domestic demand in the permanent magnet industry [3] - Expectations for rare earth policies have increased, stabilizing product prices and improving profit margins for companies [3] - The overall valuation of the non-ferrous metal index is around 24 times earnings, indicating potential for future valuation recovery [3] AI Chip Market - The domestic computing power market is experiencing a resurgence, with the Guotai Science and Technology Chip ETF rising over 5% [3] - Huawei's release of new super nodes and chips is seen as a significant advancement, with the Ascend 950 super node considered the strongest globally [4] - The domestic AI chip market is expected to grow, supported by increasing capital expenditures from domestic cloud providers [4] Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is recovering from previous challenges, with the Photovoltaic 50 ETF rising by 6.33% [4] - Regulatory attention on the industry's competition issues is expected to stabilize prices and profits, with upstream silicon material profits beginning to recover [4][6] - The global demand for new installations is projected to exceed 600 GW annually, with companies expanding production in low-tariff regions to maintain competitive advantages [6]