黄金股票ETF（517400）跟踪的是SSH黄金股票指数（931238），该指数从A股和港股市场中选取50只 涉及黄金采掘、冶炼及销售等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，覆盖黄金全产业链。指数成分股兼具 中小市值特征与龙头效应，行业集中度较高，旨在反映黄金产业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 平安证券指出，贵金属方面，美联储9月降息预期抬升，金价上涨驱动显现，海外宏观不确定性持续， 黄金避险属性仍处于放大阶段，长期看金价中枢预计持续抬升。 相关机构表示，美联储鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上表示美国劳动力市场正处于一种"不同寻常的平 衡"，这种平衡来自于劳动力供给与需求的双向放缓，为9月降息打开可能性。杰克森霍尔会议放鸽，美 联储货币框架有所调整。市场降息预期抬升，金价止跌反弹。当前市场对于9月降息预期持续升温，对 于金价构成利好；但短期内需警惕市场提前交易降息预期，"靴子落地"后可能带来的反转。 长期看，货币超发及财政赤字货币化背景下，美元信用体系受到挑战；加上全球地缘动荡频发推动资产 储备多元化，黄金作为安全资产的需求持续提升。全球"去美元化"的趋势使得黄金有望成为新一轮定价 锚，使得贵金属有望具备上行动能。 没有 ...

黄金股票ETF（517400）跟踪的是SSH黄金股票指数（931238），该指数聚焦于黄金采掘、冶炼及加工 销售等相关领域，成分股覆盖A股与港股市场。SSH黄金股票指数具有偏中小市值风格并兼具龙头效 应，行业分布集中且完整，能够反映黄金产业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接A（021673），国泰中证沪深 港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接C（021674）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 平安证券指出，贵金属方面，美联储9月降息预期抬升，金价上涨驱动显现。海外宏观不确定性持续， 黄金避险属性仍处于放大阶段，长期看美元信用走弱主线逻辑清晰，金价中枢预计持续抬升。整体来 看，有色金属行业基本面支撑渐强，价格上行驱动维持偏强。 每日经济新闻 ...

华鑫证券表示，鲍威尔在全球央行会议发布鸽派言论。美联储鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表重磅 讲话，认为当前的形势意味着，就业面临的下行风险上升。这种风险平衡的转变可能意味着需要降息。 关于劳动力市场，鲍威尔表示："总体来看，劳动力市场虽处于平衡，但这是一种因劳动力供需双双大 幅放缓所致的'奇特平衡'。这种异常形势暗示就业的下行风险正在增加。"关于关税对通胀的影响，鲍 威尔表示一种"合理的基准假设"是关税会导致物价水平"一次性"上涨，但这些影响需要时间才能完全体 现在经济中。 总结而言，鲍威尔发出鸽派发言以后，贵金属价格上扬。美联储仍处于降息周期，鲍威尔发言为贵金属 市场注入强心剂，看好黄金价格进一步上涨。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接C（021674），国泰中证沪深 港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接A（021673）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选 ...

Group 1 - The long-term outlook indicates that the dollar credit system is under challenge due to excessive monetary issuance and the monetization of fiscal deficits, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe asset amid global geopolitical instability [1] - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally suggests that gold may become a new pricing anchor, providing upward momentum for precious metals [1] - The People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold reserves, reporting a total of 73.9 million ounces as of the end of June, with an increase of 70,000 ounces month-on-month, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] Group 2 - The gold stock ETF (code: 517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (code: 931238), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting 50 large-cap listed companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales from the mainland and Hong Kong markets [1] - The index constituents include gold mining companies and jewelry firms, reflecting significant industry concentration characteristics [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF Initiated Link C (021674) and Initiated Link A (021673) [1]

Group 1 - The ETF market showed mixed performance on the afternoon of the 4th, with the gold stock ETFs leading the gains [2] - The gold stock ETF (517400) rose by 4.06%, while the gold stock ETF fund (159315) increased by 3.74% [2] - The S&P oil and gas ETFs experienced the largest declines, with the S&P oil and gas ETF (159518) down by 3.3% and the S&P oil and gas ETF (513350) falling by 3.26% [2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong medical ETF (159366) also saw a decline, dropping by 2.73% [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 13.26 points, a decline of 0.37%, at 3559.95 points, with a trading volume of 684.6 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell 18.45 points, down 0.17%, closing at 10991.32 points, with a trading volume of 913.7 billion yuan [1] - The total trading volume of both markets was approximately 1.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 300 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Small-cap stocks were favored, with over 3300 stocks rising in the market [1] Global Economic Impact - On July 31, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order imposing "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% on multiple countries and regions [1] - This news caused significant volatility in global capital markets, with the South Korean Composite Index experiencing a maximum drop of 3.7% and the Nikkei 225 Index dropping over 1% before stabilizing [1] Investment Strategy - In light of the increasing asset price volatility, a balanced asset allocation strategy of "stocks-bonds-commodities" is recommended to mitigate risks [2] - The China A500 ETF is suggested for capturing long-term economic growth opportunities in China [2] - Ten-year government bonds are highlighted for their defensive and offensive attributes, making them worthy of investor attention [2] - Gold is recommended for its safe-haven and monetary properties, supporting both short-term and long-term price trends [2] Economic Policy Insights - The "anti-involution" policies reflect a shift in focus from quantity to price by policymakers, fostering growing confidence in China's long-term economic outlook [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has been below zero for 33 consecutive months since October 2022, indicating a need for policy intervention [3] Technical Analysis - The A-share market showed strong performance in July, with a significant increase in trading volume and price, although a recent pullback occurred due to profit-taking [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index had ten consecutive trading days where the closing price was above the five-day moving average, indicating a strong upward trend [4] Bond Market Insights - The ten-year government bond ETF is recommended for its unique advantages, including T+0 trading, low fees, transparency in holdings, and the ability to pledge for repurchase [7] - The ten-year government bond serves as a benchmark in the bond market, providing a stable base for asset allocation [8] Gold Market Dynamics - Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, India-Pakistan, and Russia-Ukraine have heightened market risk aversion, supporting gold prices [9] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar's credit system due to challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence further strengthens the case for gold as a stable asset [10] - The U.S. economy faces challenges, with concerns about "stagflation" emerging, which may increase demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [11]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous and precious metals industries are expected to benefit from factors such as weakening US credit, escalating global conflicts, and tight supply conditions, leading to sustained industry prosperity [1] - Rare earth and precious metals, particularly silver, show strong investment appeal due to improved supply-demand dynamics and their safe-haven attributes [1] - Resource prices are currently supported strongly, indicating structural opportunities within the industry [1] Group 2 - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which includes representative companies across the gold industry chain, reflecting overall industry performance [1] - The index encompasses companies involved in gold mining, processing, and sales, making it suitable for investors interested in precious metal market dynamics and gold investment opportunities [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF Initiated Link C (021674) and Link A (021673) [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights the ongoing trade tensions, with the U.S. threatening to impose a 100% tariff on Russia and the EU finalizing a second round of countermeasures against the U.S. [1] - There is a slight cooling in interest rate cut expectations, coupled with high market uncertainty, leading to continued fluctuations in gold prices. [1] - Short-term market opinions on gold price direction are increasingly divided, necessitating close monitoring of U.S. tariff developments, the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. [1] Group 2 - In the medium to long term, factors such as the Federal Reserve potentially entering a rate cut cycle, increasing uncertainty in overseas macro policies, and a global trend towards de-dollarization are expected to provide some support for gold prices. [1] - Investors may consider gradually accumulating positions during price pullbacks. [1] - The gold stock ETF (code: 517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (code: 931238), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales from the mainland and Hong Kong markets. [1]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3519.65 points, up 0.27%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10684.52 points, down 0.11% [1] - The total trading volume for the two markets was 623.1 billion yuan for Shanghai and 835.6 billion yuan for Shenzhen [1] Robotics Sector - The robotics sector led the market gains, driven by a significant procurement project from China Mobile for humanoid biped robots, with a total budget of 124 million yuan, marking the largest single procurement in the domestic humanoid robot field [2] - In May, China's industrial robot production increased by 35.5% year-on-year, reaching 69,100 units, while service robot production grew by 13.8% to 1.2164 million units [2] - The export market share for China's industrial robots rose to second globally last year, with a 61.5% increase in exports in the first half of this year [2] Policy and Industry Outlook - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to develop humanoid robots and improve common technology research and data infrastructure [3] - The Chinese robotics industry is positioned for growth due to recovering domestic and international demand, supportive policies, and enhanced product performance, suggesting a favorable long-term trend for domestic brands [3] Bond Market - Different maturities of bonds experienced adjustments, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 1.6710% and the 30-year yield at 1.8825%, both hitting a one-month high [4] - The issuance of long-term bonds by the Ministry of Finance exceeded expectations, leading to a rise in secondary market yields [4] Economic Outlook - The ongoing anti-involution measures may constrain production and impact employment and income, potentially affecting demand [6] - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy to support economic activity amid weakening fundamentals and low inflation [6] Copper Market - The announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper by Trump is expected to pressure copper prices, with a significant influx of arbitrage funds impacting both London and Shanghai copper prices [7] - Short-term demand for copper is recovering, with a 3.3 percentage point increase in copper rod operating rates to 67.0% [7] - Long-term, strong investment and consumption, along with supportive monetary policy, are expected to elevate copper prices [7] Gold Market - Trump's new tariffs on EU and Canadian goods may bolster gold prices as a safe-haven asset [8] - China's gold reserves increased to approximately 2,298.55 tons, reflecting a trend of "de-dollarization" in the global monetary system [8] - The outlook for gold remains strong due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit [9]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are driven by geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, indicating a shift in the traditional analysis framework that relied on U.S. real interest rates [1][2] Geopolitical Factors - Short-term geopolitical conflicts can rapidly increase market demand for safe-haven assets, pushing gold prices higher, but as tensions ease, demand may decline, leading to a return to average prices [2] - Long-term geopolitical instability could undermine the U.S. dollar's credibility, potentially establishing a foundation for sustained increases in gold prices [2] Economic and Monetary Policy Influences - The U.S. economic and fiscal conditions significantly impact the credibility of the dollar; a strong U.S. economy typically strengthens the dollar, leading to lower gold prices [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the June 2025 FOMC meeting, along with a neutral to hawkish stance, suggests that any future market expectations of rate cuts could positively influence gold prices [1][2] Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, reflecting a global trend of central banks diversifying away from the dollar, which supports the long-term demand for gold [2] - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, central banks worldwide have accelerated gold purchases to mitigate risks associated with dollar assets, providing a solid long-term support for gold prices [2] Investment Strategy - Gold remains a valuable asset for hedging against dollar credit risk, with long-term investment potential; however, current high prices suggest caution against chasing prices, favoring accumulation during price corrections [3] - Investors can consider gold ETFs for direct exposure to physical gold or opt for gold stock ETFs for higher volatility and potential returns, depending on their risk tolerance [3]