证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 27 日 短期锂价仍持续看涨，看好价格重估背景下的 关键金属全面行情 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ►印尼 26 年镍矿配额或下调叠加对镍矿伴生资源额外 征税税负，对镍矿价格或有支撑 截止到 12 月 24 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 15435 美元/ 吨，较 12 月 17 日上涨 8.13%，LME 镍总库存为 255696 吨， 较 12 月 17 日增加 0.67%；沪镍报收 12.68 万元/吨，较 12 月 19 日上涨 8.38%，沪镍库存为 45,280 吨，较 12 月 19 日增加 0.02%；截止到 12 月 26 日，硫酸镍报收 26,900 元/吨，较 12 月 19 日价格下跌 2.36%。根据 SMM，印尼原料方面，火法矿 方面，从供应角度来看，印尼主要镍矿产区正处于活跃雨季， 导致部分矿山生产受阻。截止这周，印尼林业部执法行动仍在 延续，受此监管压力，矿山普遍维持惜售/观望态度，出货节 奏趋于保守。需求端来看，NPI 冶炼厂的采购 ...

作为中国镍钴行业的龙头企业和甘肃省的支柱企业，金川集团肩负着推动全省工业经济发展的重要使 命，始终深刻认识健全完善大监督体系对促进企业改革发展的重要意义，坚持将党内监督与业务监督相 衔接，着力整合监督资源、健全监督体系、形成监督合力、提升监督质效，以有力监督保障党的路线方 针政策和中央、省委重大决策部署落实落地，从根本上促进企业依法合规经营，提升企业治理水平，为 企业高质量发展保驾护航。 专项突破，让监督见实效 专项监督是推动各类监督有机贯通、相互协调的重要载体和有效路径。金川集团纪委聚焦优本创 效、"两金"压降、环保治理、采购招投标等企业中心任务和关键业务领域，连续两年通过项目化管理方 式开展专项监督76项,通过立项、审批、实施、评价等全流程项目化管理，找准难点重点立项、抓住关 键环节监督、紧扣实施效果结题，推动集团各项重点工作取得显著成效。针对巡视巡察反馈、信访举报 分析、日常监督发现的突出问题，金川集团党委首次开展设备设施大修、项修领域专项巡察，紧扣检修 领域专业属性和特点，组织工程、设备、财务、审计、纪检等各领域专业技术人员组成巡察组，从设 计、招标、施工、管理、验收、核销等重点环节锁定风险点，以全方 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic revaluation of key metals, particularly focusing on rare earths and cobalt [24] - Nickel prices are expected to be supported due to tightened supply expectations following Indonesia's new regulation reducing the approval cycle for mining plans from three years to one year [26][27] - Cobalt prices have continued to rise, with expectations of increasing supply tightness further driving prices up [30][33] - Antimony supply is expected to remain tight, providing a bottom support for antimony prices [34] - Lithium carbonate prices are projected to remain strong due to ongoing demand and inventory depletion [16] - China's dominance in rare earth supply is reinforced by stricter export controls, which are expected to support rare earth prices [18] - Tin supply remains uncertain due to ongoing challenges in overseas supply, which is expected to support tin prices [19] - Tungsten prices are supported by a tightening supply situation, with production rates slowing down [20] - Uranium supply tightness is anticipated to continue, supporting uranium prices [21] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Indonesia's new regulation on mining approvals is expected to tighten future ore supply, supporting nickel prices [26] - As of October 24, LME nickel price was $15,085 per ton, up 1.04% from October 17 [26] - Cobalt prices have risen significantly, with electrolytic cobalt reaching 408,500 CNY per ton, a 6.94% increase [30] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices have decreased, but long-term supply tightness is expected to support prices [34] - China's antimony production is projected to dominate global supply, accounting for 60% of the total [34] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a market average of 73,700 CNY per ton as of October 24 [16] - Demand from the battery sector continues to drive price support [16] Rare Earth Industry Update - China's strict export controls on rare earths are expected to tighten supply and support prices [18] - The report highlights the importance of China's role in the global rare earth supply chain [18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply uncertainties, particularly from Myanmar and Indonesia [19] - As of October 24, LME tin price was $35,925 per ton, up 2.42% from October 17 [19] Tungsten Industry Update - The tungsten supply situation is tightening, with production rates slowing down [20] - Prices for tungsten concentrate have increased, reflecting supply constraints [20] Uranium Industry Update - The report indicates a continued tight supply situation for uranium, supporting price stability [21] - Recent production guidance reductions from major suppliers are expected to impact future supply [21]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Financial Assets has successfully launched the Jinchuan Nickel-Cobalt project, contributing to the enhancement of national strategic resources and supporting the high-quality development of the local economy [1] Group 1: Investment and Financial Support - CITIC Financial Assets invested 3.25 billion yuan to actively participate in and support national major strategies, accelerating the industrial and technological upgrades of Jinchuan Nickel-Cobalt [1] - The company focuses on leveraging its expertise in financial asset management to enhance the capital strength and optimize the equity structure of Jinchuan Nickel-Cobalt [1] Group 2: Strategic Role and Governance - As a strategic investor, CITIC Financial Assets aims to address the challenges faced by the enterprise by introducing excellent corporate governance practices and establishing scientific decision-making processes [1] - The company is committed to promoting industrial transformation and upgrading, thereby adding new momentum to the development of the enterprise and supporting the revitalization of the local economy in Gansu [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Liqin Resources (02245) has surged over 13%, reaching a historical high of 25.6 HKD, with an 80% increase in the past month, driven by changes in cobalt export policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo [2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Liqin Resources' stock price increased by 13.45%, trading at 25.48 HKD with a transaction volume of 201 million HKD [2]. - The company's wet-process nickel production capacity is located in Indonesia, which is not affected by the cobalt export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, allowing it to fully benefit from rising cobalt prices [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo updated its cobalt export policy on September 20, extending the cobalt export ban to October 15, 2025, and limiting export quotas for 2026-2027 to only 44% of annual production [2]. - Huachuang Securities believes that the Congolese government's ban and quota policy will exacerbate the shortage of cobalt raw materials, potentially accelerating the rise in cobalt prices [2]. - Minsheng Securities indicates that the Congolese government's firm stance on supporting cobalt prices suggests a high likelihood of implementing quota systems, leading to a contraction in supply and a clear upward shift in cobalt price levels [2].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Liqin Resources (02245) has surged over 9%, reaching a new historical high of 20.44 HKD, driven by changes in cobalt export policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) [2] Group 1: Company Performance - Liqin Resources' stock price increased by 9.23%, trading at 20.36 HKD with a transaction volume of 58.74 million HKD [2] - The company benefits from rising cobalt prices due to supply constraints, as its nickel production capacity is located in Indonesia and is not affected by DRC's export restrictions [2] Group 2: Industry Context - The DRC government updated its cobalt export policy, extending the export ban to October 15, 2025, and limiting export quotas for 2026-2027 to 44% of annual production [2] - According to CITIC Securities, the DRC's export quota policy is expected to lead to a significant global cobalt supply shortage, with shortfalls of 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - Minsheng Securities believes that the DRC government is determined to support cobalt prices, indicating a likely shift towards a quota system and a clear upward trend in cobalt price levels [2]

Group 1 - The stock of Liqin Resources (02245) has increased by over 9%, reaching a new historical high of 20.44 HKD during trading [1] - As of the latest update, the stock is trading at 20.36 HKD with a transaction volume of 58.74 million HKD [1] Group 2 - The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo updated its cobalt export policy on September 20, extending the cobalt export ban to October 15, 2025 [1] - From 2026 to 2027, the cobalt export quota will be limited to 44% of annual production [1] - CITIC Securities predicts that the export quota policy will lead to significantly lower global cobalt supply from 2025 to 2027, with supply shortages of 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons respectively [1] Group 3 - Minsheng Securities believes that the Congolese government's firm stance on supporting cobalt prices indicates a high likelihood of implementing a quota system, leading to a contraction in supply and an upward shift in cobalt prices [1] - The company's wet-process nickel production capacity is located in Indonesia, which is not affected by the Congolese export restrictions, allowing it to fully benefit from the rising cobalt prices [1]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The lithium carbonate price increased by 0.91% to 72,000 CNY/ton as of August 8, 2025, indicating a supply-demand imbalance in the industry that may be difficult to resolve [6][42] - Nickel prices rose, with LME nickel closing at 212,232 USD/ton, up 1.51% from August 1, 2025, while domestic nickel prices also increased by 1.05% to 121,000 CNY/ton [21][24] - Cobalt prices showed mixed trends, with electrolytic cobalt down 1.48% to 266,000 CNY/ton, while cobalt oxide rose by 2.54% to 203.50 CNY/kg [25][30] - Antimony prices decreased, with antimony ingot averaging 185,000 CNY/ton, down 1.33% from July 31, 2025, amid tight supply conditions [31][35] - The nickel industry faces potential supply disruptions due to the suspension of production lines by Chinese mining giant Tsingshan in Indonesia, which may impact local nickel mining and support nickel prices [12][24] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Updates - Nickel prices increased, with LME nickel at 212,232 USD/ton and domestic nickel at 121,000 CNY/ton, while supply remains stable despite weather conditions [21][24] - Cobalt prices fluctuated, with electrolytic cobalt down and cobalt oxide up, influenced by raw material shortages from the Democratic Republic of Congo [25][30] Antimony Industry Update - Antimony prices fell, with domestic antimony ingot at 185,000 CNY/ton, as supply remains tight and production is limited due to many manufacturers being offline [31][35] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices rose to 72,000 CNY/ton, with high inventory levels and slow de-stocking, indicating ongoing supply challenges [6][42] Rare Earth Industry Update - The rare earth market remains stable, with domestic production indicators not showing significant growth, and the U.S. government is working to rebuild its rare earth supply chain [15][42] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices increased, with LME tin at 33,900 USD/ton, as supply from Myanmar remains constrained due to production issues [9][15] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices rose slightly, with white tungsten at 193,500 CNY/ton, as supply remains tight due to reduced mining quotas [10][11] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Tianhua New Energy, Yahua Group, and Ganfeng Lithium, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics in lithium supply [42]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has invested billions in MP Materials to accelerate the independence of U.S. rare earth magnets, but global production remains highly concentrated in China in the short term [9][14][45] - Nickel prices have decreased due to a significant drop in demand and production halts in Indonesia, which may impact local mining operations [12][20][23] - Cobalt prices have risen due to supply tightening from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounts for approximately 75% of global electric vehicle battery supply [13][31] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, but future price movements will depend on downstream demand recovery [7][38][44] - Antimony prices have remained stable, with domestic supply still tight, and production expected to decline in the coming months [32][36] Summary by Sections Rare Earth Industry - MP Materials announced a partnership with the DoD to enhance domestic production capabilities, with a new magnet manufacturing facility expected to be operational by 2028 [45][46] - The DoD has committed to a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for NdPr products, ensuring stable cash flow for MP Materials [46][47] Nickel Industry - As of July 11, LME nickel spot price was $14,955 per ton, down 1.09% from July 4, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 1.83% [20] - Domestic NPI smelting costs remain under pressure, affecting the acceptance of high-priced raw materials [20][23] Cobalt Industry - As of July 11, cobalt prices have shown mixed trends, with electrolytic cobalt at 249,300 yuan per ton, down 0.99%, while cobalt oxide increased by 1.54% [24][31] - The extension of a temporary export ban by the Congolese government is expected to tighten global cobalt supply [31] Lithium Industry - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 63,800 yuan per ton, up 2.36% as of July 11 [7][38] - Market sentiment is cautious, with inventory levels remaining high, limiting upward price movement [38][44] Antimony Industry - Domestic antimony ingot prices have stabilized, with supply constraints expected to support future pricing [32][36]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The report highlights that the import volume of tin from Myanmar has remained below the warning line of 10,000 tons for several months, leading to expectations of tight supply which may support tin prices [10][21] - Nickel prices have increased week-on-week, driven by traders' replenishment needs, with LME nickel spot settlement price reported at $15,120 per ton, up 0.6% from June 27 [21] - Cobalt prices have also risen, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 251,800 yuan per ton, up 0.6% from June 27, although downstream demand has not shown significant improvement [25][32] - The report notes a decrease in antimony ingot prices and production, with domestic antimony ingot average price at 192,500 yuan per ton, down 2.53% from June 26 [33][36] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased slightly, with the average market price at 62,300 yuan per ton, up 1.81% from June 27, but the market is expected to maintain a low-level fluctuation pattern [41][46] Summary by Sections Nickel Industry - Nickel prices have risen due to replenishment demand from traders, with LME nickel total inventory decreasing by 0.89% [21] - Domestic production costs for nickel smelters have increased significantly due to high CIF prices of Philippine nickel ore [21] - The report indicates that the suspension of production lines by Qingshan Holding Group may further impact local nickel mining in Indonesia [13][24] Cobalt Industry - Cobalt prices have increased, supported by the extension of a temporary export ban by the Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounts for about 75% of global electric vehicle battery supply [25][32] - Despite the price increase, downstream demand remains weak, with most manufacturers maintaining a just-in-time purchasing strategy [25][32] Antimony Industry - Antimony ingot prices have decreased, with a significant drop in production expected in July due to ongoing supply tightness [33][36] - The report suggests that domestic raw material supply remains tight, which may support future antimony prices [36] Lithium Industry - Lithium carbonate prices have seen a slight increase, but the market is still characterized by oversupply, with inventory pressures not effectively alleviated [41][46] - The report anticipates that lithium prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [41][46] Tin Industry - The report indicates that the import volume of tin from Myanmar is below the warning line, leading to expectations of tight supply which may support tin prices [10][21] - The overall supply situation is expected to remain tight due to slow recovery in Myanmar's tin mining operations [10][16] Rare Earth Industry - Following the recent US-China trade negotiations, China has partially relaxed its export controls on rare earths, which may alleviate some supply pressures for Western companies [15][19] - The report notes that the rare earth market is experiencing price increases driven by demand from major manufacturers, although actual transaction volumes remain low [9][15]