Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the increasing investment value of strategic mineral resources due to heightened global macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in the fourth quarter [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Copper is expected to benefit from tight supply at the mining level and increased demand driven by the green economy [1] - Aluminum faces constraints due to domestic capacity limits but will benefit from lightweighting and green electricity demand [1] - Gold possesses unique attributes for hedging against risks and inflation [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investment in the resource sector should focus on three main lines: first, supply rigidity, emphasizing varieties significantly constrained by resource limitations and capacity policies [1] - Second, green demand, capturing structural growth driven by energy transition in sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaic wind power [1] - Third, financial attributes, utilizing changes in liquidity expectations to allocate to safe-haven assets [1]

（文章来源：第一财经） 中信建投指出，四季度以来，全球宏观经济与地缘政治不确定性加剧，凸显了战略矿产资源在安全保障 与价格弹性方面的投资价值。基于当前供需格局、政策导向及产业趋势，铜、铝、黄金三大品种的中长 期配置逻辑清晰。铜受益于矿端供应紧张与绿色经济需求拉动；铝受限于国内产能天花板，并受益于轻 量化及绿电需求；黄金则具备对冲风险及通胀的独特属性。投资应围绕三大主线：一是供给刚性，关注 受资源约束和产能政策限制显著的品种；二是绿色需求，把握能源转型在新能源汽车、光伏风电等领域 带来的结构性增长；三是金融属性，利用流动性预期变化配置避险资产。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the increasing investment value of strategic mineral resources due to heightened global macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, emphasizing the clear long-term allocation logic for copper, aluminum, and gold based on current supply-demand dynamics, policy directions, and industry trends [1] Group 1: Copper - Supply-side constraints are intensifying, with global copper supply disruptions occurring frequently, such as Codelco's significant price increase for long-term contracts and accidents at major mines tightening supply [2] - Structural growth in demand is driven by the green economy and AI infrastructure, with increasing copper demand from solar, wind, and electric vehicle sectors, supported by traditional demand resilience from aging infrastructure [2] - Positive macro and policy factors include rising probabilities of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a weaker dollar alleviating pressure on copper prices, and domestic policies promoting industry upgrades and limiting new capacity [2] Group 2: Aluminum - Supply constraints are reinforced by a domestic production cap of 45 million tons per year and risks from overseas production, such as potential reductions in French and Icelandic aluminum plants due to high energy costs [2] - Demand is driven by explosive growth in the new energy sector, with increased aluminum usage in electric vehicles and photovoltaic applications, alongside resilient traditional demand from grid investments [2] - Policy and liquidity factors are favorable, with government plans targeting a 30% clean energy usage by 2027 and an increase in recycled aluminum production, alongside enhanced financial attributes for aluminum prices due to expected interest rate cuts [2] Group 3: Gold - The financial attributes of gold are strengthening, with over 80% probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a decline in the dollar index, enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge against risks and inflation [3] - Positive policy and funding conditions include new tax policies favoring investment-grade gold products and ongoing purchases by the central bank, which has increased its gold reserves to 7.409 million ounces [3] - The demand for gold is bolstered by its scarcity and the ongoing geopolitical tensions, which elevate risk-averse sentiments among investors [3]