Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in government bond futures indicates a tightening in the bond market, influenced by various economic factors and central bank operations [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.18% [1]. - The interbank market saw major interest rate bonds experiencing narrow fluctuations, with the ultra-long end showing slight weakness [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 255.7 billion, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.1 billion, maintaining an overall balanced funding situation in the interbank market [1]. - The central bank's liquidity injection in August included a net MLF injection of 300 billion, a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion in pledged supplementary loans (PSL), and a net injection of 300 billion in reverse repos, with no public market bond transactions conducted [1]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM manufacturing index rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7 in August, but remained below market expectations of 49, marking six consecutive months below the growth threshold [1]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall financial market risk appetite has rebounded recently, putting pressure on the bond market. However, as government bond issuance gradually passes its peak, supply pressure in the bond market is expected to ease [3]. - Geopolitical factors and changes in trade policies present significant uncertainties that could impact the global economic landscape and financial environment, potentially benefiting the bond market due to increased risk aversion [3]. - It is suggested to consider building long positions on dips, while monitoring manufacturing PMIs from China and the U.S., as well as price indicators from the Eurozone [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View - The reference view of crude oil 2506 is to run strongly, with short - term being volatile, medium - term being volatile and weakening, and intraday being volatile and strengthening. The core logic is the escalation of US - Iran conflict and the reduction of supply expectations in the crude oil market [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Time - cycle and View - For crude oil 2506, short - term (within a week) is volatile, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is volatile and weakening, and intraday is volatile and strengthening. The reference view is to run strongly [1]. Price and Market Performance - Due to the short - term positive factors, on Thursday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices rose significantly. The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract closed up 3.40% to 495.3 yuan/barrel, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and strengthening trend on Friday [5]. Core Logic - The US President Trump reduced the intensity of the tariff war, releasing positive signals and increasing the risk appetite of the financial market. The US Treasury imposed new sanctions on Iran's energy, escalating the US - Iran conflict. OPEC+ required Kazakhstan and Iraq to compensate for the insufficient crude oil production cuts, reducing the future supply expectations of the crude oil market [5].