固收- 预期加速兑现 20260112 摘要 2026 年中国债市长期面临供给压力，非短期边际问题，已形成市场一 致性预期，供给压力不会因短期缓解而立即改善利率环境。 通胀修复预期强烈，即使需求端无明显发力，名义利率仍受压制。12 月 CPI 数据已显示通胀修复迹象，需持续关注商品价格与债市的联动效应。 央行投放方式可能出现新变化，虽然尚未形成一致性预期，但适度宽松 背景下，后续或将演绎相关逻辑，值得关注。 2026 年一季度地方债发行规模同比减少，但单期国债发行规模显著增 加，如两年和十年期国债发行量均高于去年同期。 机构现券补跌现象明显，收益率上行阶段，期货先跌、现券后跌。节后 7 年和 30 年期国债跌幅显著，交易节奏较快，基差修复周期短。 1 月份信贷开门红预计新增信贷规模较大，将产生显著的资产负债缺口， 可能导致资金面收紧，但预计不会像去年初那样极端。 未来一周需关注资金面扰动，特别是大税期的影响；关注 30 年国债新 券发行情况，观察市场承接力及维稳力量；关注全年进出口数据。 银行在 12 月 15 号之后大量买入长期利率债，是因为增配利率债不影响流动性 指标。每年这个时候，银行通常会有充足的现金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in government bond futures indicates a tightening in the bond market, influenced by various economic factors and central bank operations [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.18% [1]. - The interbank market saw major interest rate bonds experiencing narrow fluctuations, with the ultra-long end showing slight weakness [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 255.7 billion, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.1 billion, maintaining an overall balanced funding situation in the interbank market [1]. - The central bank's liquidity injection in August included a net MLF injection of 300 billion, a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion in pledged supplementary loans (PSL), and a net injection of 300 billion in reverse repos, with no public market bond transactions conducted [1]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM manufacturing index rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7 in August, but remained below market expectations of 49, marking six consecutive months below the growth threshold [1]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall financial market risk appetite has rebounded recently, putting pressure on the bond market. However, as government bond issuance gradually passes its peak, supply pressure in the bond market is expected to ease [3]. - Geopolitical factors and changes in trade policies present significant uncertainties that could impact the global economic landscape and financial environment, potentially benefiting the bond market due to increased risk aversion [3]. - It is suggested to consider building long positions on dips, while monitoring manufacturing PMIs from China and the U.S., as well as price indicators from the Eurozone [3].