1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market priced the current conflict as a trading shock over the weekend, and did not price in a long - term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [4][8] - The situation in the Middle East is trending towards loss of control, with the Iranian military operating in a decentralized mode and attacking various targets [10][11] - The war duration has far exceeded expectations, and the market has started to price in a recession [33] - In 2026, the four major economic cycles are in a downward resonance, and there is a high probability of a global financial and economic crisis starting in the US in the summer [54] - The US is at risk of systemic risk spreading from the private credit market to the bank credit market, and there are signs of a shift towards stagflation [58][81] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Middle East Situation - The Iranian military has lost unified control, with military units fighting independently and attacking 27 US military bases in the Middle East, blocking the Strait of Hormuz, attacking three Anglo - American oil tankers (one sunk), and attacking US embassies in Gulf countries [10][11][12] - The new Iranian supreme leader may be more hard - line, and military power may be out of control [13] - Most ships in the Strait of Hormuz have stopped on both sides to avoid risks [15] - Qatar's natural gas production facilities were attacked and production was suspended, causing European liquefied natural gas prices to soar by 50% [21][23] - Saudi Arabia's largest refinery was attacked and shut down, which meets 40% of Saudi Arabia's refined oil demand [27] - If Saudi Arabia gets involved in the war for retaliation, Middle Eastern oil infrastructure may be severely damaged [28] Oil Supply and Storage - Normally, about 19 million barrels of liquid fuel are exported through the Strait of Hormuz every day, including about 16 million barrels of crude oil [18] - Saudi Arabia and the UAE can transport some oil through pipelines, but not more than 4 million barrels per day [19] - The on - land crude oil storage capacity of seven Gulf oil - producing countries is about 343 million barrels, equivalent to about 22 days of retained production. With additional storage from about 60 empty oil tankers (about 50 million barrels), production can be maintained for about 25 days in case of a complete blockade [20] Market Reactions - Stock markets in South Korea and Japan, which are highly dependent on Middle Eastern oil, fell sharply. The South Korean Composite Index dropped 7% and the Nikkei 225 index fell 3% [36][39] - Shanghai silver and tin futures closed down 9% and 11% respectively on March 3 [42][44] - The US stock market is in the late distribution stage, and a downward shock may lead to a strong wealth contraction in the US, a consumption cliff, and impact the world [55] Economic Cycles - The four major economic cycles (Kondratieff wave, Kuznets cycle, Juglar cycle, and Kitchin cycle) are all in a downward trend in 2026, with a high probability of a global financial and economic crisis starting in the US in the summer [50][51][54] Investment Suggestions - Gold can be a safe - haven asset during shocks, but may fall at the end of the liquidity shock [67] - A - share CSI 300 index or Shanghai - Shenzhen ETFs may become global safe - haven assets [70] - Treasury bond futures may present investment opportunities [75] Policy and Risk Mitigation - Trump instructed the US Development Finance Corporation to provide war insurance for oil tankers and said it would escort oil tankers. The International Energy Agency may jointly sell 1 billion barrels of strategic reserves, easing the liquidity shock [78]

Group 1 - The recent seizure of oil tankers by the United States near Venezuela has raised concerns in the international market regarding the security of Venezuela's oil supply [1] - Despite the geopolitical tensions, the domestic oil market in Venezuela remains stable, with no significant fluctuations in supply or prices observed [1] - Venezuelan citizens express strong condemnation of the U.S. actions, indicating a sense of resilience and confidence in their ability to cope with external pressures [2][4][6][9] Group 2 - Experts suggest that the U.S. blockade on Venezuelan oil could have adverse effects on the U.S. energy system, as both countries have a highly integrated supply chain [10] - The current situation highlights the ongoing financial and economic crisis in the U.S., while Venezuela maintains diplomatic relationships and experience to navigate these challenges [12] - The Venezuelan government has issued a statement condemning the U.S. actions and reaffirming its commitment to independently develop its oil industry [14]